LEICESTER – JANUARY 31
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £570.80 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Leicester:
Leg 1 (1.15): 1 (Springtown Lake) & 2 (I’m Always Trying)
Leg 2 (1.45): 1 (Head To The Stars), 4 (Hit The Highway) & 3 (Du Soleil)
Leg 3 (2.15): 2 (Iniesta) & 5 (Indian Reel)
Leg 4 (2.50): 1 (Ballyarthur), 3 (Enola Gay) & 2 (Some Are Lucky)
Leg 5 (3.25): 2 (Lord Bryan), 1 (Bekkensfirth) & 6 (Go West Young Man)
Leg 6 (3.55): 9 (Georgieshore), 6 (Chandos Belle) & 7 (Tactical Manoeuvre)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.15: Whilst SPRINGTOWN LAKE might look something of a good thing at around the 1/12 mark for openers, it’s worth reporting that the inmates at the Philip Hobbs yard are still not covering themselves in glory, despite a slight improvement of late. Suffice to say that since the end of November, Philip’s ratio stands at 7/73 which by the trainer’s high standards is poor form and no mistake. Indeed, 45 points of level stake investments have been lost. With (literally) only I’M ALWAYS TRYING to beat, Richard Johnson should be aboard another winner but there is no way that I’m leaving the David Pipe raider out of the Placepot mix.
Favourite factor: Market leaders came to the gig on a four timer last year but the trend went off the rails, with the even money favourite only managing to finish fourth of five. I should also point out that a 2/7 favourite has been turned over in the past, hence the hesitancy to take out the mortgage money relating to the Hobbs representative this afternoon. If anything, I would be looking to lay the favourite to small money.
1.45: HIT THE HIGHWAY demands respect given his course record on this type of ground, as does DU SOLEIL with the Venetia Williams runners invariably finding at least half a stone of improvement for plenty of give in the ground. That all said, Henry Daly (HEAD TO THE STARS) has saddled seven of his last nineteen runners to winning effect, securing eighteen points of level stake profit into the bargain.
Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites (via three renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (5/2) winner.
Record of course winners in the second race:
1/2—Head To The Stars (good to soft)
2/2—Hit The Highway (2 x heavy)
2.15: The terms and conditions of this claiming hurdle event favour INIESTA, though I doubt that the great Spanish player would be able to weave his magic against opposing teams on this type of surface, not once the runners have churned up the turf at least! Upwards and onwards by suggesting that INDIAN REEL appeals as the main threat, especially as there is money in the dead of night for the Fergal O’Brien raider. Emigrated might prove to be the value for money call to beat the others home.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites (winners at 7/4 and 4/5) havesecured Placepot positions to date, albeit supporters of the 10/11 market leader two years back were poorly represented.
2.50: Nigel Twiston-Davies is another of the top trainers who hit something of a poor patch of late, with his last eighteen runners having been beaten, three of which were returned as favourites. It’s worth noting that thirteen of those beaten horses were returned in single figures. That said, BALLYARTHUR stands head and shoulders above ENOLA GAY and SOME ARE LUCKY (beaten joint favourite in this race twelve months ago), whereby Nigel should get back on track in this grade/company. The other pair are trained by top trainers however, whereby all three runners are entered into the Placepot equation.
Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites has finished in the money thus far (no winners).
Record of course winner in the fourth event:
1/2—Ballyarthur (ggod to soft)
3.25: Proven heavy ground winner LORD BRYAN is the first name on the team sheet, whilst I’ll wager that there will be worse outsiders on the card than GO WEST YOUNG MAN, albeit Henry Daly’s representative has his own ideas about the game from what we have witnessed thus far. Providing he does not get bogged down in the mud, course and distance winner BEKKENSFIRTH should also be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: Both favourites had claimed Placepot medals via silver medals before the Placepot treble was completed by last year’s bronze medallist.
Record of course winner in the fifth contest on the card:
1/1—Bekkensfirth (good to soft)
3.55: Providing that last week’s course and distance winner GEORGIESHORE has been given enough time to recover from his heavy ground exertions, Zoe Davison appears to have found an ideal opportunity for her Turtle Island gelding to follow up, especially with the sire having become famous via his soft/heavy ground representatives down the years. Others to consider include CHANDOS BELLE and my each way speculative call TACTICAL MANOEUVRE.
Favourite factor: All three favourites have claimed Placepot positions to date via two silver medal efforts alongside last year’s 4/1 winner.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/2—Handsome Sam (heavy)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Leicester card on Tuesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both fronts:
2 runners—Henry Daly (First runners at Leicester this season) – 3/14 +46
2—Zoe Davison (1/7 – loss of 3) – 3/16 +14
2—Jimmy Frost (First runners at Leicester this season) – 0/1
2—Matt Sheppard (0/2) – 4/20 +1
2—Evan Williams (0/6) – 1/14 – loss of 9
2—Venetia Williams (0/2) – 8/40 – loss of 16
+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
43 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £156.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Chelmsford: £25.40 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced
Newcastle: £27.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced