MUSSELBURGH – JANUARY 3
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £214.60 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh:
Leg 1 (1.00): 6 (Kelpies Myth), 8 (Silver Bullion) & 4 (Chookie Royale)
Leg 2 (1.30): 3 (Mullaghmurphy Blue), 4 (Middlebrow) & 1 (Pot Commited)
Leg 3 (2.00): 8 (Nendrum), 2 (Sleep In First) & 4 (Lady Clitico)
Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Full Jack) & 2 (Jump For Dough)
Leg 5 (3.00): 1 (Mixboy) & 4 (Archive)
Leg 6 (3.30): 9 (Paper Promise) & 1 (Detonate)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
1.00: This race should be offered with a government health warning (see favourite stats below) even though one of the two market leaders scored via spilt divisions twelve months ago. Overnight money has arrived for the lone course winner KELPIES MYTH and SILVER BULLION and in the face of previous results in the contest (and in a mediocre renewal) it might prove churlish in the extreme to ignore the potential ‘edges’. Keith Dalgleish suffered a reversal (faller) yesterday on the opposite Scottish coastline though from a Placepot perspective, CHOOKIE ROYALE should give investors a decent run for their collective months on behalf of the stable.
Favourite factor: The first four winners of this event have scored at 33/1, 25/1, 13/2 & 4/1 before last year’s two divisions, with the relevant market leaders snaring old And silver medals, the winner scoring at 4/6. Three of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions, though one of the (second placed) casualties from a win perspective was beaten at odds of 2/7.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1/2—Kelpies Myth (good)
1.30: Just as a general viewpoint regarding NH racing at Musselburgh (and on the flat come to mind), why do jockeys sit off the pace so much in Edinburgh, given that the layout of the track demands that horses race close to the pace if they have any chance of winning from meeting to meeting? Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that although the two dual course winners might have preferred slightly better conditions, it would be surprising to say the least if both horses failed to figure at the business end of proceedings in such a weak looking event. Chasing might enable POT COMMITED to rekindle some form, whilst the chance for MULLAGHMURPHY BLUE is there for all to see in this grade/company. MIDDLEBROW is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Musselburgh card.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
2/2—Pot Commited (2 x good)
2/2—Millaghmurphy Blue (2 x good)
2.00: Five-year-olds have won two of the four renewals in which vintage representatives were involved though in would take a great deal of blind faith to include this year’s lone vintage representative Great Coloci into even the Placepot mix. Far more logical winners include NENDRUM and SLEEP IN FIRST, even though their collective form does not amount to very much. Rebecca Menzies does well with the few runners she saddles here and there will be worse outsiders on the Musselburgh card than LADY CLITICO I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Three of the five market leaders have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include last year’s one successful (85/40) favourite from a win perspective.
Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:
2.30: FULL JACK and JUMP FOR DOUGH appeal from value for money perspectives in another race on the card that will not take a great deal of winning. RANDY PIKE did us a good turn the other day, though the even money quote in the trade press looks far too tight about a horse which got off the mark in a weak Market Rasen event at the sixth time of asking. COURT BALOO is offered the reserve nomination accordingly.
Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites (via five renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (even money) winner. That said, last year’s 11/8 market leader was the only horse which failed to complete the course.
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
1/6—Full Jack (good to soft)
1/2—Lady London (good)
1/1—Court Baloo (good)
3.00: Although this is a disappointing renewal of the Kilmany Cup event, last year’s winner MIXBOY looks to have obvious claims, albeit the ground will be softer than was encountered twelve months ago. I thought that the Dalgleish favourite Niceandeasy was ‘vulnerable’ on yesterday’s Ayr card and so it proved, though MIXBOY comes here with a much better chance from my viewpoint. At 2/1 with plenty of firms at the time of writing, MIXBOY is offered at a realistic price to defend his crown successfully. ARCHIVE should present the strongest challenge when the whips are up according to the gospel of yours truly.
Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events at odds of 7/2 - 9/4 – 6/4 - 10/11.
Record of the course winners in the feature event:
1/3—Trust Thomas (good)
3.30: The exchanges appear to indicate that just two horses can be taken seriously in the finale, namely PAPER PROMISE and DETONATE, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference, not that I would back either of them with your money from a win perspective, especially with the disappointing market leader returns listed below. Lucinda Russell saddled the 16/1 winner two years ago and I guess that BATON BLUE should not be dismissed too readily in this grade/company.
Favourite factor: Although four of the five favourites have finished in the frame, just one (4/5) market leader has prevailed thus far.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + level stake profits/losses accrued on both counts:
5 runners—Lucinda Russell (2/19 +5) – 48/497 – loss of 156 points
4—Tim Vaughan (2/6 +8) – 9/51 – loss of 6
3—James Ewart (0/4) – 20/160 – loss of 45
2—George Bewley (0/1) – 2/31 – loss of 20
2—Susan Corbett (0/9 – 4/56 – loss of 31
2—Keith Dalgleish (3/8 +3) – 9/39 – marginal loss
2—Chris Grant (0/4) – 15/194 – loss of 93 points
2—Micky Hammond (0/3) – 47/360 – loss of 5
2—Iain Jardine (0/10) – 4/47 – loss of 6
2—Christopher Kellett (0/1) – 0/2
2—Donald McCain (0/11) – 44/221 – marginal loss
2—Rebecca Menzies (1/5 slight profit) – 5/31 +24
2—Pauline Robson (0/2) – 7/46 – loss of 13
2—Katie Scott (First runners this season at the track) – 1/8 – loss of 1
2—Sandy Thomson (4/13 +12) – 16/77 +46
2—Alistair Whillans (2/7 +5) – 11/118 – loss of 31
+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
53 declared runners