SALISBURY – OCTOBER 4
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £898.40 (6 favourites - No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury:
Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Ace Ventura) & 2 (Carp Kid)
Leg 2 (2.30): 6 (Roundhead), 3 (Majil) & 8 (Tullyallen)
Leg 3 (3.05): 5 (Mr Top Hat), 2 (Algam) & 4 (Helvetian)
Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Poet’s Princess), 3 (The Daley Express) & 5 (Dandy Flame)
Leg 5 (4.10): 4 (Almoreb) & 5 (Storm Rock)
Leg 6 (4.40): 4 (Incredible Dream), 13 (Fields Of Fortune) & 12 (Southern States)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Richard Hannon held no less than 16 entries for this meeting at the weekend, albeit he has ‘lost’ nine of those potential runners since Sunday. The first of Richard’s seven declarations on the card is CARP KID who ran well enough on his first day at school in a much better race at Newbury, suggesting that this event has been well targeted by the trainer. That said, ACE VENTURA was also aimed pretty high at Doncaster’s St Leger meeting when sent off at just 13/2 whereby this opposition should enable him to score, albeit the 4/6 quote I’ve seen this morning looks skinny enough.
Favourite factor: The opening event on the Salisbury card is a new race.
2.30: Richard’s two runners can be relied upon from a Placepot perspective I’ll wager, not that I would back either of his inmates from a win perspective you understand. Of the pair, ROUNDHEAD is slightly preferred to TULLYALLEN, though cash will be held back for more attractive options later on the card aside from my Placepot wager. Roger Varian’s Dansili newcomer JAMIL will probably figure at the business end of the contest with the trainer having found a decent opportunity of his March foal at the first time of asking.
Favourite factor: The second race is also a new race on the Salisbury programme.
3.05: Richard Hannon has secured one gold medal and two of the silver variety during the last three years in this event. It’s as well to offer a balanced view as ever, because Richard’s 1/2 favourite was turned over in a four runner (win only) contest twelve months ago. ALGAM is the stable representative on this occasion, though my initial interest concerns MR TOP HAT whose 10/1 trade press quote will not be available this morning. The David Evans Helmet colt has attracted money with several firms overnight and it will be interesting to see if the support is sustained up to flag fall. HELVETIAN completes my trio against the remaining two contender in a trappy looking affair. Mick Channon’s raider won at Bath when there was moisture in the turf earlier in the season and Mick usually places his horses to decent effect in this type of event.
Favourite factor: Ten favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst market leaders have a very record from a toteplacepot perspective during the study period, even though four of the last five ‘jollies’ have finished out with the washing.
Record of the course winner in third race:
1/1—Nine Below Zero (good to firm)
3.35: Three-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals, whilst vintage representatives have claimed seven of the last twelve available Placepot positions via just over 40% of the total number of runners. Six of the last eight winners carried a minimum burden of 9-1 and putting the facts and stats together produces an obvious short list of POET’S PRINCESS, THE DALEY EXPRESS and DANDY FLAME if we are relying on trends. The trio are the only three-year-olds in the field and they all qualify via the weight trend. Archie Watson has saddled his last three runners to winning effect whereby AMOOD is the reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: Market leaders are only conspicuous by their absence in terms of winners of this race during the last eleven years, whilst just four of those eleven favourites secured Placepot positions. Indeed, five of the relevant gold medallists during the study period were returned in double figures, ranging between 11/1 & 20/1.
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/2—Our Lord (soft)
1/3—Dandy Flame (good to firm)
4.10: Whilst four renewals hardly constitutes towards a trend as such, it's still worth noting that four-year-olds have secured seven of the nine available Placepot positions thus far, with vintage representatives having won the relevant events at 7/4*-4/1-4/1-8/1. To put icing on the cake, I should report that just 13 vintage representatives have contested the race via an aggregate of 32 runners (28.1% of the collective fields). Can somebody please explain the lack of four-year-olds in this occasion with vintage representative only conspicuous by their absence? I secured a 57/1 Exacta forecast last year and I am peeved in the extreme that an opportunity has not arisen again twelve months on – wake up and smell the coffee trainers! Upwards and onward by suggesting that last year’s winner STORM ROCK was scoring on soft ground and with the ground drying out since Monday, similar conditions might be in place by the time that flag fall arrives this afternoon. ALMOREB has been the subject of support right across the board overnight, making the soft ground Newbury winner (arguably) the pick of Richard Hannon’s seven runners at Salisbury this afternoon.
Favourite factor: The four renewals to date have produced one successful (7/4) favourite, two of the four market leaders having secured Placepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the fifth event:
1/2—Storm Rock (soft)
4.40: As one of only two four-year-olds in the field, INCREDIBLE DREAM catches the eye, with Dean Ivory’s recent soft ground Chepstow winner looking to be the safest Placepot option in the finale. Not stopping when winning in facile fashion that day, I’m hoping that the step up in trip will prove ideal for Dean’s Vale Of York gelding. There will worse outsiders on the card than the other vintage representative SOUTHERN STATES I’ll wager, whilst FIELDS OF FORTUNE is another option to consider. Alan King has saddled a couple of winners via his last three runners whereby the 12/1 quote which is still available in a few places at the time of writing might not last long this morning.
Favourite factor: Both of last year’s favourites finished out of the frame via two divisions of an inaugural event twelve months ago.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Salisbury card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
7 runners—Richard Hannon (8/64 +16)
3—Andrew Balding (5/30 – loss of 3 points)
3—David Evans (0/23)
3—Rod Millman (4/35 – loss of 12 points)
3—Hughie Morrison (1/10 +7)
2—Ron Harris (0/4)
2—Dean Ivory (0/4)
2—Roger Varian (1/14 – loss of 10 points)
+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
52 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Nottingham: £1,361.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Bangor: £156.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Kempton: £16.80 – 7 favourites – 5 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced