CHEPSTOW – SEPTEMBER 6
Wedneday's Placepot permutation at Chepstow:
Leg 1 (2.10): 6 (Kodina), 8 (Mushahadaat) & 1 (Awesome)
Leg 2 (2.40): 12 (Tifi), 4 (Hedging) & 5 (Wahaab)
Leg 3 (3.10): 2 (Katheefa) & 3 (Majboor)
Leg 4 (3.40): 4 (Rigoletto), 7 (Redgrave) & 3 (Ehtiraas)
Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (John Joiner), 2 (Bonjour Steve) & 3 (Quantum Dot)
Leg 6 (4.40): 1 (Priors Brook) & 4 (Seven Clans)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: Although finishing eighth of ten on debut, KODINA was ‘only’ beaten five lengths at Newbury and even then, a couple of those lengths could be put down to some traffic problems when squeezed out at an important part of the contest. Sire Kodiac has enjoyed a terrific season with his juvenile representatives and the Charlie Hills could be another ‘unlikely’ winner. Four of the nine entries come to the gig with a beaten favourite prefix next to their names, the pick of them arguably being MUSHAHADAAT and AWESOME.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Chepstow on Wednesday. In fact, all the races are new as this will probably prove to be a one-off meeting on the racing calendar.
2.40: Heather Main has been posting some decent stats of late, her 12 winners during the months of July and August having been gained via a 25% strike rate. Level stake profit during the period amounted to 27 points for good measure and Heather’s recent course winner TIFI could improve the recent ratio over this additional furlong. HEDGING is another recent winner who cannot be left out of the mix, arguably alongside WAHAAB who could outrun his 14/1 trade press quote after a decent effort over course and distance the last day.
Record of course winners in the second race:
2/3--Hedging (good to soft & soft)
1/4--Champagne Bob (good to soft)
1/5--Doctor Bong (good to soft)
1/7--Living Leader (good to firm)
3.10: I wrote this analysis before sport was contested on Tuesday whereby the stats I offer were correct as of Monday night, albeit subsequent results might have sent some of the words I am writing base over apex by the time you read this column. Charlie Hills is the only represented trainer here to have sent out regular winners of late, whereby KATHEEFA is the call over MAJBOOR. Charlie’s Street Cry gelding KATHEEFA has gone down by an aggregate of little more than three lengths via his last two defeats in much better races at Doncaster, whereby Dane O’Neill’s mount should win without too much fuss.
3.40: RIGOLETTO can resume winning ways with some moisture back in the ground I’ll wager, with yours truly expecting rain in the Chepstow area during the next 36 hours before flag fall. Luca Cumani has his team in red hot form at the time of writing which is good to see, as the trainer went through a lean time by his high standards earlier in the season. A winner of two of his five race thus far, RIGOLETTO has ‘only’ been beaten by an aggregate of seven lengths via the other three assignments, so I’m not in the least surprised that the official assessor has raised the Zoffany representative by another pound, despite being a beaten favourite the last day. Rain will also aid and abet the chance of fellow three-year-old REDGRAVE, whilst EHTIRAAS completes my trio against the remaining five contenders in this potential ‘dead eight’ event.
Record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/3--Mister Musicmaster (good to firm)
4.10: JOHN JOINER deserves to get his head in front after some half decent efforts of late for trainer Peter Hedger who goes about his business in unassuming fashion but nonetheless, turns our regular ‘Placepot winners’. Luke Morris is in danger of ‘riding himself dry’, taking far too many mounts in his quest for winners in my considered opinion. Luke’s current 9% strike rate bears witness to that statement to a fashion, not that I am decrying his talent in the saddle you understand. Luke rides DAVID’S BEAUTY on this occasion with win and place claims I guess, whilst others for the overnight mix include course and distance winners QUANTUM DOT and BONJOUR STEVE who has been running well recently without claiming his fair share of luck.
Record of course winners in the fifth event:
2/19--Bonjour Steve (2 x soft)
3/7--Quantum Dot (3 x good to firm)
1/6--Lucky Clover (good)
4.40: Another ‘dead eight’ race to enjoy, not that I expect the whole field to face the starter as is seemingly the case these days. Upwards and onwards in positive mode however by suggesting that PRIORS BROOK and SEVEN CLANS should secure the dividend between them if we are live going into the finale. Priors Brook Would have preferred faster ground, though is 2/2 record at the track is impossible to ignore. By the time that 4.40 ticks around on Wednesday, the ground might be a little of the soft side for SPARTE QUERCUS who would otherwise have contested a position in my permutation.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/2--Priors Brook (2 x good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Chepstow card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Richard Hannon (3/27 – loss of 18 points)
4—Charlie Hills (1/10 +16)
3—Grace Harris (3/22 - +15)
3—Malcolm Saunders (3/22 +15)
2—Andrew Balding (3/12 – slight profit)
2—Roger Fell (No previous runners this season)
2—Hughie Morrison (0/1)
2—Richard Price (2/24 – loss of 14 points)
2—David Simcock (No previous runners this season)
+ 42 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
66 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Lingfield: £19.30 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Southwell (NH): £50.10 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Kempton (A/W): This is a new fixture on the racing calendar