NOTTINGHAM - NOVEMBER 8
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham:
Leg 1 (12.35): 4 (Blacklooks), 10 (Burn Some Dust) & 11 (Odds On Oli)
Leg 2 (1.05): 9 (Rhode Island), 13 (Young Rascal) & 12 (Victory Chime)
Leg 3 (1.40): 4 (Glencadam Master), 2 (Best Blue) & 7 (Nibras Galaxy)
Leg 4 (2.15): 4 (Gracious John) & 3 (Clem Fandango)
Leg 5 (2.50): 10 (Fantasy Keeper), 4 (Quick Look) & 6 (Van Gerwen)
Leg 6 (3.20): 1 (Ebitda) & 10 (Sarabi)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.35: I wrote a book called ‘Nursery Class’ many years ago at which time I suggested that the majority of Richard Fahey’s two-year-old handicap winners carried a maximum of nine stones – and little changed down the years. I’m not suggesting that ODDS ON OLI can actually win this event though at around the 18/1 mark, Joe Fanning’s mount could represent some value for money from a Placepot perspective. At the other end of the market, both BURN SOME DUST and BLACKLOOKS won last time out which at least offered proof that they have what it takes to win races, something that arounds two third of the horses in training fail to achieve.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 13/8 favourite duly obliged.
1.05: 21 of the last 23 winners of this event have scored at odds of 11/1 or less which is a terrific record, especially at this stage of the season when results can go ‘belly up’. Money has arrived overnight for the likes of RHODE ISLAND, YOUNG RASCAL and VICTIORY CHIME and with jungle drums failing to beat for any of the other contenders, this trio will carry my Placepot cash. The latter named pair might have t best of the draw on this occasion.
Favourite factor: 22 of the 31 market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include 10 successful favourites.
Draw factor (eight furlongs – the most recent result offered first):
14-1-2 (17 ran-good)
11-4-15 (13 ran-good)
4-11-6 (10 ran-soft)
10-11-9 (11 ran-soft)
9-10-15-14 (17 ran-good to soft)
9-3-15-7 (17 ran-good to soft)
7-2-12 (9 ran-soft)
11-9-6 (11 ran-soft)
3-4-8 (12 ran-soft)
6-8-3 (13 ran-soft)
3-6-9 (17 ran-soft)
8-15-14 (17 ran-soft)
8-3-14 (14 ran-heavy)
10-5-12 (16 ran-soft)
5-8-11 (15 ran-soft)
6-8-4 (17 ran-heavy)
11-6-2 (10 ran-good to firm)
5-10-7 (12 ran-good to firm)
2-3-6 (12 ran-good to soft)
12-9-14 (14 ran-soft)
1 & 10 D/H-12 (13 ran-heavy)
2-5-12 (13 ran-heavy)
14-4-2 (15 ran-heavy)
17-6-18 (17 ran-good to soft)
6-3-2 (16 ran-good to soft)
1.40: BEST BLUE and NIBRAS GALAXY offer some hope against the majority of the shorter priced contenders I’ll wager, whilst GLENCADAM MASTER (like Rhode Island in the first division of this contest) looks another John Gosden type for the short list. Any money for GREAT BEYOND could be worth heeding later in the day.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same favourite/draw stats apply.
2.15: GRACIOUS JOHN was the first name mentioned in the analysis for the first running of this event twelve months ago before going on to score at 12/1. Such generous odds will not be in place this time around but with CLEM FANDANGO being the only horse in the line up that I genuinely fear, ‘John’ is included in my Placepot mix again.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished just out of the money in fourth place.
Record of course winners in the fourth race:
1/2—Perfect Pasture (good)
1/2—Gracious John (good)
2/7—Classic Pursuit (good & good to soft)
2.50: Five of the six winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, whilst four-year-olds have secured three of the six contests to date. Recent winners QUICK LOOK and VAN GERWEN boast ticks in both of the trend boxes, whilst soft ground winner FANTASY KEEPER completes my trio against the field.
Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have secured Placepot positions, stats which include two (11/4 & 13/8) winners.
Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
1/3—Fantasy Keeper (soft)
1/1—Jabbarockie (good to soft)
3.20: Scott Dixon has raided this venue to good effect this season whereby if you want to include an each alternative each way/Placepot option against hot favourite EBITDA, Scott’s SARABI would be the call. Sarabi represents the four-year-old vintage which has claimed six of the last eleven renewals. That said, EBITDA is the logical call from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: Six renewals have slipped by since the only (7/2) favourite obliged in this event via the last eleven contests. That said, nne of the relevant winners scored at a top price of 10/1.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
3/23—Ambitious Icarus (good – good to soft – soft)
1/5—Coiste Bodhar (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Nottingham card on Wednesday - followed by 2017 stats at the track and profit/loss to level stakes:
4 runners—John Gosden (3/18 – loss of 4 points)
3—Michael Appleby (7/57 – loss of 9 points)
3—Ralph Beckett (2/10 +4)
3—Scott Dixon (4/12 +32)
3—Mick Easterby (2/17 – loss of 6 points)
3—John Gallagher (1/7 +4)
3—William Haggas (2/11 +3)
2—Karl Burke (2/21 +13)
2—Roger Charlton (0/6)
2—Clive Cox (6/22 +2)
2—Keith Dalgleish (0/1)
2—David Evans (2/18 – loss of 7 points)
2—Richard Guest (0/20)
2—Roger Varian (4/23 – loss of 13 points)
2—Ed Walker (0/10)
2—Ian Williams (0/10)
+ 45 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
85 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chepstow: £369.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Musselburgh: £641.30 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Kempton: £60.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced