CATTERICK – MARCH 9
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £211.30 (6 favourites: 1 winner--3 placed--2 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend (all codes) in 2016 (calendar year): £605.75
Average NH Placepot dividend in 2016: £863.72
Average Catterick Placepot dividend in 2016: £73.91 (6 meetings)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Catterick:
Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Fair Loch) & 4 (Deny)
Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Roxyfet), 2 (My Friend George) & 4 (Lily Little Legs)
Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (No Chailin) & 2 (Flemensfirthleader)
Leg 4 (3.30): 6 (Discoverie) & 1 (Nefyn Bay)
Leg 5 (4.40): 11 (Cumbrian Farmer), 1 (Shinooki) & 2 (Brae On)
Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Carlton Ryan) & 9 (Comedinewithme)
Suggested stake: 144 bets to 20p stakes
2.00: Five of Brian Ellison's last fourteen runners had won at the time of writing whereby course winner FAIR LOCH could be the horse to home in on. Having sealed two medals of each colour via twelve assignments over timber, FAIR LOCH has enough experience to score, chiefly at the expense of DENY and (possibly) HEY BOB.
Favourite factor: This is a new race at Catterick with which to open proceedings.
Catterick record of course winners in the opening race:
1/6--Deny (C&D winner)
2.30: ROXYFET represents Micky Hammond who has scored with three of his last six runners in recent days, with connections probably having most to fear from MY FRIEND GEORGE. The declaration of LILY LITTLE LEGS adds a little interest to proceeding though that said, this 'win only' event only appeals because of the effect of the lone Placepot opportunity the contest produces.
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 6/4 favourite duly obliged.
3.00: Five-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals, claiming five of the ten available Placepot positions via 32% of the total number of runners. Six of the seven winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-12 and putting the stats and facts together offers just NO CHAILIN against the other four contenders via the trend boxes. FLEMENSFIRTHLEADER appears to be the obvious threat.
Favourite factor: Five of the seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders.
3.30: DISCOVERIE deserves to add to a couple of victories though that said, fourteen assignments have come and gone since the last success was gained thirteen months ago. Donald McCain is back saddling winners on a semi regular basis, though the trainer is having to send out plenty of runners to get scores on the board. Donald has declared NEFYN BAY on this occasion, with CASUAL CAVALIER added to the overnight mix.
Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites to date (via two renewals) has claimed a Placepot position having won the relevant event.
Catterick record of course winners in the fourth event:
1/5--Bollin Line (C&D winner)
4.00: BRAE ON and CUMBRIAN FARMER are two of few C/D winners on the card and it is difficult to envisage both horses finishing out of the frame. The first named George Bewley raider has to overcome a two year absence, whereby the marginal call is for Kenneth Slack's Alflora gelding CUMBRIAN FARMER. SHINOOKI came in from the cold last time out and with useful seven pound claimer Harry Cobden in the plate, the Alex Hales top weight cannot be ruled out of the equation at the overnight stage.
Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Catterick programme.
Catterick record of course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
1/2--Brae On (C&D winner)
2/5--Cumbrian Farmer (C&D winner)
4.30: Last year's 25/1 winner Soleil D'Avril was one of only three horses I mentioned in my analysis twelve months ago. Unusually in Hunter Chase events, horses aged in single figures have won ten of the last eleven renewals, though there is a clue in the title of the race which provides the reason. This is a 'Novice' Hunter Chase which makes all the difference in the world whereby the trend should be extended via the likes of CARLTON RYAN, SCOTS GAELIC and COMEDINEWITHME.
Favourite factor: Just two (15/8 & 11/4) market leaders has prevailed of late alongside gold medallists which were returned at 50/1-25/1-20/1-18/1-16/1.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Catterick card on Wednesday:
3--Kenneth Slack (Catterick stats this season: 2/11)
2--Chris Bealby (0/1)
2--Hugh Burns (--)
2--Susan Corbett (0/2)
2--Lucy Egerton (1/9)
2--Brian Ellison (4/20)
2--Micky Hammond (2/43)
2--Donald McCain (9/43)
+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
54 declared runners