NEWMARKET – APRIL 13
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: 180.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Newmarket overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (2.10): 3 (Heart Of Lions), 6 (Muntahaa) & 13 (Western Prince)
Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Sutter Country) & 8 (Tomily)
Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Gifted Master), 4 (Waterloo Bridge)
Leg 4 (3.55): 4 (Raucous), 3 (Kachy) & 2 (Ibn Malik)
Leg 5 (4.30): 10 (Mahsoob) & 3 (Air Pilot)
Leg 6 (5.00): 9 (Satish), 10 (Wings Of Desire) & 11 (Winning Story)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
2.10: As the ‘Wood Ditton’ is invariably a total guessing game until (at least) the morning of the race, I find myself already looking for excuses should the horses I highlight fail to light up the heath in any shape or form. I am trusting to John Gosden to get us through this opening teaser of a contest, the trainer having offered the green light to three of his four potential runners at the weekend stage, namely HEART OF LIONS, MUNTAHAA and WESTERN PRINCE. The problem in races like the 'Wood Ditton' is that horses are anything but 'knocked about' when any chance of winning has gone, which from a Placepot perspective, is worrying to say the least. If John's trio are to be denied in terms of gold medal territory, MULK could prove to be the culprit.
Favourite factor: 13 of the 22 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (seven winners) during the 18 year study period.
2.45: It might prove foolish in failing to recall how well Hugo Palmer started the Newmarket year twelve months ago (see statistics at the foot of the column), whereby his Sir Prancelot raider COPPER KNIGHT is not ruled out of the equation by any means. That said, SUTTER COUNTRY looked something out of the ordinary (like quite a few of the Mark Johnston two-year-olds already this season) when bounding clear to win by nine lengths at Wolverhampton the thick end of three weeks ago. Richard Hannon's Canford Cliffs representative TOMILY also looked a promising type when finishing second at Kempton on debut, despite running green for the majority of the contest. Related to Fig Roll (Listed winner in his juvenile days), TOMILY should win races before too many of the big guns (Royal Ascot types) are let loose.
Favourite factor: A third day has been added to the fixture this year which has created new events, this being one such contest.
3.20 ('Tattersalls Millions'): If the two-year-old ratings are anything to go by, this looks to be a match with the highly progressive juvenile GIFTED MASTER taking on Aidan O'Brien's WATERLOO BRIDGE. Four and a half lengths separated the pair in the 'Millions event' last back end under the same terms as today, though the ground that day was much faster than is being predicted at the time of writing before Tuesday's sport was contested. GIFTED MASTED came to hand early in his first year at school and that is a major factor of why I list the horses in order of preference at the overnight stage. Fair play to the other three trainers for taking this pair on, though with a minimum of twenty pounds to make up, the trio look set to contest third place at best which from a Placepot perspective is of no use in this 'short field' event. New readers light like to know that the term 'short field' relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home 'qualify' via each way and Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have finished in the frame via five renewals, statistics which include one (100/30**) successful market leader.
Newmarket (RM) record of course winners in the third race:
3.55 (European Free Handicap): The European Free Handicap always brings to mind the excellence of Pat Eddery who won this race five times during the course of an eight year period for five different trainers between 1989 and 1996! Pat equalled Lester Piggott’s haul of eleven championship titles, having won this race eight times during his career. Upwards and onward to the present, reporting that Adventurous and Great Page (preference would be for the latter named raider) looks a little exposed now against the likes of RAUCOUS, KACHY and IBN MALIK who all scored at the first time of asking as juveniles, hopefully proving they are not 'stuffy' types. I am finding it difficult to split the trio this early in the year whereby I will simply add the trio into my Placepot permutation and keep my powder dry from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: Five of the last ten favourites have prevailed, whilst 11 of the last 18 market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six winners. All 18 winners during the study period were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.
4.30 ('Earl Of Sefton'): Four-year-olds have claimed sixteen of the last twenty eight renewals, whilst securing over half (24/45) of the latest available toteplacepot positions. DECORATED KNIGHT makes most appeal from the relevant four entries, though I might desert my 'anorak' tendency on this occasion as some older horses make plenty of appeal. John Gosden makes a habit of saddling consistent winners at this time of the season year on year (seven gold medallists a couple of years back alongside three winners twelve months ago at the two day Newbury meeting which starts of Friday), whereby MAHSOOB is the call from a win perspective. A winner of four of his six races to date, it's interesting to witness John getting to grips with his Dansili representative early in the season, especially as faster ground might have been waited for given his record thus far. I believe that this is an indication that John wants to make up for lost time regarding his five-year-old who still has to repay 'keeping costs' thus far, despite being a Royal Ascot winner. Connections possibly have most to fear from the afore mentioned DECORATED KNIGHT, AIR PILOT and (possibly) CUSTOM CUT.
Favourite factor: 14 of the 20 market leaders have reached the frame (four winners) during the study period.
Newmarket (RM) record of course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
5.05: John Gosden has secured three of the last eight renewals with horses sent off at 20/1-7/1-11/8*, the trainer having offered the green light to both SATISH and WINGS OF DESIRE on this occasion. This is another race at the meeting which is heavily influenced by trainer entries by yours truly, with WINNING STORY preferred to POINT OF VIEW as the main danger to John's declarations.
Favourite factor: Six of the eight favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two successful market leaders from a win perspective.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with more than one runner on the Newmarket card on Wednesday:
2--Sir Michael Stoute
+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
66 declared runners
Newmarket overview for Wednesday:
Leading trainer records from this fixture last year which was staged over just the two days:
2/4--Hugo Palmer (4/1 & 9/2)
2/6--Saeed Bin Suroor (8/1 & 11/2)
2/11--Richard Hannon (4/1 & 14/1)
1/1--Mick Channon (5/1)
Trainers of more than one beaten favourite:
2--Richard Fahey (13/8 & 4/1)
2--John Gosden (1/2 & 3/1**)