EPSOM – APRIL 20
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £78.90 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Epsom:
Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Roudee), 5 (Monumental Man) & 2 (Duke Of Firenze)
Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Claudio Monteverdi), 9 (So Di Mar) & 8 (Viren's Army)
Leg 3 (3.05): 13 (Knight Music), 10 (Prendergast Hill) & 8 (Gold Prince)
Leg 4 (3.40): 7 (Pacify) & 2 (What About Carlo)
Leg 5 (4.15): 2 (Generalship) & 3 (Najd)
Leg 6 (4.50): 4 (Marshal Dan Troop) & 2 (Machine Learner)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Four-year-olds have won four of the last ten renewals which suggests that this year’s two vintage raiders (yes just two) demand plenty of attention, namely ROUDEE and CROSSE FIRE, the pair having crossed swords at Doncaster on soft ground last time out. The two vintage representatives are very much listed in order of preference, especially as there appears to have been a change of heart regarding Roudee. After greeting Roudee into the enclosure reserved for the winner on Town Moor, the assistant trainer suggested that Roudee would go straight to Chester, though we see him turning up here, reverting back to five furlongs. Others for the overnight mix include last year's (fast ground) winner MONUMENTAL MAN and soft ground winner DUKE OF FIRENZE who has dropped down to a potential winning mark again.
Favourite factor: Four of the 12 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two successful (3/1 & 5/4) market leaders. The last five winners have scored at 25/1-20/1-12/1-7/1-13/2. Nine of the last fifteen horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions have been returned in double figures.
Epsom record of course winners in the opening event:
1/3--Duke Of Firenze
2/4--Monumental Man (won this race last year)
2.30 ('Derby Trial'): This Epsom Derby trial has failed to produce a winner of the ‘Blue Riband’ since 1939, but the contest has offered up half decent gold medallists all the same. Heavy ground course winner Viren's Army has to be of interest, albeit Richard Hannon's Twirling Candy colt is pretty much exposed now, so much so that his sixth juvenile assignment was when finishing third in a Group 3 contest on the continent in November. Only beaten 'three parts' that day, VIREN'S ARMY is entitled to plenty of respect, though it might prove a little disappointing if John Gosden's Dubawi filly SO DI MAR failed to ruffle his fathers in receipt of five pounds. John was saddling his third winner of the race during the last nine years when his odds on chance Christophermarlowe breezed up by four lengths twelve months ago. Aidan O'Brien has offered the green light to his Galileo raider CLAUDIO MONTEVERDI who has already tackled soft/heavy ground to winning effect. Unless the infamous camber affects the result, I cannot envisage any other winner than the three horses mentioned in dispatches.
Favourite factor: Eleven of the last eighteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include nine winners.
Epsom record of course winners in the second race on the card:
3.05 ('Great Met'): Four-year-olds have won eight of the last fifteen renewals of the ’Great Met’, a race which used to command plenty of media space a few years ago. Four of the six 'junior' runners in the line-up immediately attract the eye, namely GOLD PRINCE, ANGENT GIBBS, PRENDERGAST HILL and KNIGHT MUSIC. All four representatives have won on soft/heavy ground, whilst Epsom and Brighton winners are involved which is always worth a length or three at this switchback track. The relevant quartet are going to take some sorting out overnight accordingly. If I had to side with one of the four at present, the nod might go to KNIGHT MUSIC who has won three of his last four races, including a nine length romp at Brighton under heavy conditions, albeit in a three horse event. Michael Attwater's raider just happens to be a son of Epsom Derby winner Sir Percy who won a Group 2 event on soft ground leading up to his 'Blue Riband' success.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which includes three winners.
Epsom record of course winners in the third contest:
1/3--Lungarno Palace (winner of this race last year)
3.40 ('City & Surburban'): Four-year-olds have won eleven of the last seventeen renewals of this Class 2 (City & Suburban) event whilst the last nine gold medallists have carried weights of 8-11 more. Putting the stats and facts together produces and overnight short list of PACIFY, ELBERETH and (possibly) ARCHANGEL RAPHAEL. Course and distance winner ELBERETH has to overcome going conditions which is an unknown factor in his case, whilst PACIFY meets his Newbury conqueror WHAT ABOUT CARLO (last back end) on unfavourable terms. That said, PACIFY is a four-year-old who could have strengthened up over the winter (Ralph Becket has his team in good form), whilst WHAT ABOUT CARLO was beaten in this race last year when a well fancied market leader.
Favourite factor: 12/23 market leaders of late have finished in the frame, statistics which include six winners.
Epsom record of course winners in the fourth race:
2/4--What About Carlo (beaten favourite in this race last year)
4.15: The last seven winners of this maiden event have scored at a top price of 4/1, as have ten gold medallists during the last twelve years. ‘Team Hannon’ has only saddled five horses in this event during the last nine years with the stable securing victories at 5/2 and 6/4* during the period. NAJD is the Hannon representative this time around and the trainer reported this time last year that he was a big juvenile, perhaps the reason that we have not seen him on a racecourse until now. Very much like his sire Dick Turpin apparently, he would only need to be half as good to figure prominently on Wednesday. That said, GENERALSHIP and SILCA STAR have already gained (limited) experience which could make the difference between victory and defeat on this occasion. GENERALSHIP was beaten quite a long way on debut, but with John having waxed lyrical via a stable tour early in 2015, his New Approach representative was never going to be 'knocked about' on his first day at school. However, the fact that John has been quick to use blinkers on the March foal does create some concern.
Favourite factor: Fifteen of the last seventeen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, with nine successful market leaders being registered during the period.
4.50: Six of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 and with MARSHAL DAN TROOP having won on heavy ground on his third and final start as a juvenile, Peter Chapple-Hyam's Lawman colt is the first name on the team sheet. MACHINE LEARNER and GOLD FAITH are others to consider. A decent effort by Viren's Army in the 'Derby Trial' on the card would be a boost for connections of MACHINE LEARNER who ran Richard Hannon's raider to less than two lengths on soft ground at Nottingham on his last assignment, albeit MACHINE LEARNED was in receipt of eight pounds on that occasion..
Favourite factor: Six of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame (five winners) in the toteplacepot finale thus far.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Epsom card on Wednesday:
4--Richard Hannon (9/39 at Epsom last season)
3--Michael Attwater (0/6)
3--Ed Dunlop (0/5)
3--Mark Johnston (3/23)
3--Pat Phelan (8/60)
2--Andrew Balding (4/29)
2--Ralph Beckett (1/6)
2--Peter Crate (0/6)
2--John Gosden (3/8)
2--Eve Johnson-Houghton (1/8)
2--Gary Moore (0/17)
+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
54 declared runners
Placepot dividends from last year's corresponding meetings + trainer stats:
Catterick: £2,026.20 (6 runners - No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)
Lingfield A/W: £13.10 (6 favourites - 5 winners & 1 placed)
Perth: £113.70 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 2 unplaced) - Sandy Thomson secured a 550/1 double last year (28/1 & 18/1) - 3 runners on Wednesday
Taunton: £421.50 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Epsom overview (Trainers who saddles winners on the card last year with runners on Wednesday):
Andrew Balding (7/2 winner last year) - saddles Kingston Kurrajong (2.30) & Elbereth (3.40)
Michael Bell (14/1) - saddles Machine Learner (4.50)
John Gallagher (4/1) - saddles Lugarno Palace (3.05)
John Gosden (4/6*) - saddles So Mi Dar (2.30) & Generalship (4.15)