EPSOM – APRIL 26
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £688.10 (7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Epsom:
Leg 1 (2.10): 2 (Lathom), 1 (Shamson) & 5 (Monumental Man)
Leg 2 (2.45): 6 (Tartini), 3 (Cracksman) & 7 (Youmkin)
Leg 3 (3.15): 1 (Galapiat) & 9 (Michael’s Mount)
Leg 4 (3.50): 3 (Speed Company), 5 (Innocent Touch), 4 (Dolphin Vista) & 6 (Banditry)
Leg 5 (4.25): 4 (Bahar) & 6 (Leader’s Legacy)
Leg 6 (5.00): 4 (Procurator), 1 (Glorious Power) & 5 (Oud Metha Bridge)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: Four-year-olds have won four of the last eleven renewals which suggests David O’Meara’s northern raider LATHOM demands plenty of attention. SHAMSON is the lone six-year-old in the field, vintage representatives have claimed three of the last seven contests. The top seven runners in the handicap hold the edge over the bottom four in the list according to weight trends, with all ten winners during the last decade having carried a minimum burden of 8-11. MONUMENTAL MAN won this race two years ago (unplaced last year) and sprang back to winning form on an all-weather surface last time out but has failed to win on turf via his last eleven assignments, since the Epsom victory in 2015 in fact. That said, William Carson’s mount cannot be ignored from a Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor: Five of the thirteen favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two successful (3/1 & 5/4) market leaders. The last six winners have scored at 25/1-20/1-12/1-7/1-13/2-4/1. Nine of the last seventeen horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions have been returned in double figures.
Record of course winners in the opening event:
2/5--Monumental Man (2 x good to firm – won this race two years ago)
1/4—Normal Equilibrium (soft – won this race last year)
2.45: This Epsom Derby trial has failed to produce a winner of the ‘Blue Riband’ since 1939, but the contest has offered up half decent gold medallists all the same. John Gosden (TARTINI and CRACKSMAN) has secured four renewals during the last decade and boasting recent stats of 13/34, John’s pair boast obvious claims. Both unbeaten via one race to date, TARTINI and CRACKSMAN are the first two names on the team sheet, with Saeed Bin Suroor’s raider YOUMKIN rated as the chief threat offering the same stat as the Gosden duo to date.
Favourite factor: Eleven of the last nineteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include nine winners, though detectives are still searching for last year’s unplaced 4/5 market leader.
3.15: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last sixteen renewals of the ’Great Met’, a race which used to command plenty of media space a few years ago. Just two vintage raiders line up on this occasion, with GALAPIAT a more obvious winner than MICHAELS MOUNT I guess, though Ed Dunlop’s latter named raider represents an in form yard receiving plenty of weight. GALAPIAT is a winner of two of his last three races and with ‘master tactician’ Frannie Norton employed to do the steering. Mark Johnston’s Galileo demands attention under a pilot who specialises in getting the fractions right at ‘unusual’ venue such as here at Epsom and Chester. If the four-year-olds are to be denied, last year’s winner BARWICK might be the joker in the pack, though only if much needed rain arrives on cue. If not, RUWASI would receive the reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last seventeen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which includes three winners.
Record of the course winners in the ‘Great Met’:
2/6—Barwick (soft & heavy - won this event last year)
1/2—Thames Knight (good)
3.50: Four-year-olds have won twelve of the last eighteen renewals of this Class 2 (City & Suburban) event whilst eight of the last ten gold medallists have carried weights of 8-13 more. Putting the stats and facts together produces just two names who possess ticks in both of the trend boxes, namely SPEED COMPANY and DOLPHIN VISTA. The pair are listed in slight order of preference with Richard Fahey’s latter named raider accompanied by INNOCENT TOUCH who also boasts claims via the weight trend. Add the fact that INNOCENT TOUCH boasts a 1/1 record at the track also adds confidence into the equation. John Quinn saddles SPEED COMPANY, with Ryan Moore boasting 3/10 stats for the trainer during the last five years, statistics which offer ten points of level stake profits. BANDITRY is the other horse to consider from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: 13/25 market leaders of late have finished in the frame, statistics which include six winners.
Record of the course winners in the ‘City & Surburban’:
1/1—Great Hall (good)
1/1—Innocent Touch (good)
1/3—Banditry (good to firm)
1/1—Gawdawpalin (good to soft)
1/1—Faithful Creek (good to firm)
4.25: The previous seven winners of this maiden event scored at a top price of 4/1 before last year’s 9/1 gold medallist emerged, as have ten gold medallists during the last thirteen years. ‘Team Hannon’ has only saddled six horses in this event during the last ten years with the stable securing victories at 5/2 and 6/4* during the period, notwithstanding their 11/1 runner-up twelve months ago when Najr was my call in the contest. BAHAR is the Hannon representative this time around having been a little disappointing on his seasonal reappearance following a gelding operation. Running too freely for his own good at Chelmsford, BAHAR looks sure to go close with Frankie doing the steering this time around. Dettori seems to be riding with his old confidence again, recording a 38% strike rate via twelve winners during the last fortnight at the time of writing. CARPE DIEM LADY looks sure to give a good account of herself again, though LEADER’S LEGACY appears to be a likelier winner with three-year-olds dominating the race down the years.
Favourite factor: Fifteen of the last eighteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, with nine successful market leaders being registered during the period.
5.00: Six of the last ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 and with only 6/16 qualifying via the trend (fairly weak though it is), I’m inclined to look towards the top of the handicap for the winner. Richard Hannon will be desperate to improve on last year’s record at Epsom (see below) and the step up in trip for stable representative PROCURATOR catches the eye. Aside from one victory to date, PROCURATOR arguably ran his other best race over the thick end of this trip. Others to consider include GLORIOUS POWER and OUD METHA BRIDGE.
Favourite factor: Six of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame (five winners) in the toteplacepot finale thus far.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Epsom card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track last season + profits/losses accrued:
4—Runners—Ed Dunlop (2/10 – Profit of 5 points)
3—Simon Dow (0/8)
3—Mark Johnston (3/24 – loss of 6 points)
3—Sylvester Kirk (1/9 – Profit of 17 points)
3—Gary Moore (2/16 – loss of 8 points)
2—Andrew Balding (2/16 – loss of 7 points)
2—Richard Fahey (3/26 – Profit of 5 points)
2—John Gosden (1/5 – loss of 1 point)
2—Richard Hannon (1/18 – loss of 14 points)
2—Charlie Hills (3/10 – loss of 1 point)
2—Saeed Bin Suroor (1/2 – Profit of 7 points)
+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
66 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Catterick: £43.60 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Exeter: £24.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Perth: £1.494.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Lingfield (A/W) £40.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced