Placepot pointers – Wednesday August 17

YORK - AUGUST 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £196.00 (8 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 4 unplaced) - William Haggas secured a 19/1 double on last year's corresponding card - 3 runners declared this time around

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 14 (Captain Colby), 1 (Move In Time), 15 (Lexington Abbey) & 6 (Bowson Fred)

Leg 2 (2.30): 5 (Locheed) & 2 (Best Of Days)

Leg 3 (3.05): 1 (Across The Stars) & 4 (Idaho)

Leg 4 (3.40): 9 (Postponed), 12 (Hawkbill) & 13 (Wings Of Desirte)

Leg 5 (4.20): 16 (Percy Veer), 1 (Nakeeta), 11 (The Cashel Man) & 4 (Montaly)

Leg 6 (4.55): 9 (Naafer) & 10 (Spin Doctor)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for York - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: One of the first thing to note is that the overnight forecast of fast ground last year disappeared in a matter of hours, with good to soft conditions in place by the time flag fall was reached to open the meeting twelve months ago.  Six of the seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 in the opening event, whilst high numbers have been favoured when the ground is riding on the fast side.  With conditions (hopefully) set to favour the top stalls early at the meeting at the very least, the likes of MOVE IN TIME and BOWSON FRED should figure prominently, whilst below the weigh barrier I could fancy the each way/Placepot chances of CAPTAIN COLBY and LEXINGTON ABBEY.   If an unlikely deluge was to hit the track after overnight watering, connections of UNION ROSE would be overjoyed!

Favourite factor: Three of the eight favourites to date have secured toteplacepot positions without winning their respective events.

Draw factor (five and a half furlongs):

5-3-7-6 (20 ran-good to soft)

15-8-3 (15 ran-good to firm)

15-7-10-5 (17 ran-good to firm)

11-18-13-15 (19 ran-good to firm)

3-1-7-13 (19 ran-good to soft)

15-16-8 (15 ran-good)

18-13-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

Record of course winners in the opening event:

1/11--Line Of Reason (good to firm)

1/3--Duke Of Firenze (good to firm)

1/3--Union Rose (soft)

1/1--Harry Hurricane (good)

1/4--Meadway (good to firm)

2/13--Arctic Feeling (good to firm & good)

2.30: Trainer Mark Johnston (Bear Valley) is looking to win the race for the fourth time, albeit his last winner was recorded way back in 2004 which for a trainer of Mark's distinction, is somewhat surprising.  Aidan O'Brien's two victories in the contest emerged way before Mark's last gold medallist whereby Courage Of Fire would not be winning out of turn. That said, LOCHEED and BEST OF DAYS are preferred, with the latter named Hugo Palmer raider having been singled out by the assistant trainer as having a definite chance on Wednesday.  That said, William Haggas has long since been the modern day trainer to follow at this meeting, being six clear of Kevin Ryan on the fifteen winner mark during the last five years, whereby LOCHEED represents the value for money call.  For the record, Williams saddled last year's (4/1) winner, setting up a 19/1 double on the card.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 16 winners have been returned at odds of 4/1 or less (eight winning favourites), whilst 14 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 17 years.  Nine of the twelve winners during the last thirteen years (including seven of the last nine scorers) were returned at a top price of 4/1.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

2-5-8 (10 ran-good to soft)

8-1-5 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-1 (6 ran-good to firm)

3-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

2-7-11 (13 ran-good to soft)

9-3 (7 ran-good)

7-10-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

9-4 (7 ran-good)

5-6 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-8-5 (8 ran-good)

5-1 (7 ran-good)

6-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-3 (6 ran-good)

7-2-3 (9 ran-good)

1-3 (5 ran-good)

2-4 (5 ran-good)

3-6 (7 ran-good to firm)

8-4-6 (9 ran-good)

Record of the course winner in the 'Acomb':

1/1--Tommy Taylor (good to firm)

3.05: Aidan O’Brien (whose only success in this event was gained back in 2003 with Powerscourt) confuses matters given that the popular Irish trainer saddles three of the six runners (three of seven last year without any success), with the Epsom Derby bronze medallist IDAHO expected to lead his two stable companions home on this occasion.  Whether any of Aidan's runners will be able to cope with ACROSS THE STARS is another matter entirely, especially with Sir Michael Stoute's runners in fine form at this moment in time.  Michael planned a break for his Royal Ascot (King Edward VII) winner and two months on and 'Frankie' keeps the ride.

Favourite factor: 14 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last 18 years, statistics which include six successful market leaders.

3.40: Four and five-year-olds have claimed 13 of the last 19 renewals of the 'Juddmonte' between them, with the four-year-olds leading their senior rivals 10-3 in the process.  This is the race in which Roberto beat Brigadier Gerard in the inaugural year of 1972.  Since then the 44 renewals have produced the following vintage trends; 3YO: 15 wins--4YO: 21 wins--5YO: 8 wins.  Three-year-olds come to the gig on a hat trick this time around however, with HAWKBILL and WINGS OF DESIRE deserving their places in the line up on this occasion. POSTPONED appears to be the horse to beat, though Roger Varian has not enjoyed the best of seasons by his high standard, whilst the fact that the trainers has 'only' saddled ten horses this month at the time of writing is a little worrying, albeit two of those had won.  With 60 winners to his name in 2016, Roger stands 40 short of last year's tally whilst his strike rate has dipped below 20%.  That all said, POSTPONED has won his last five races by an aggregate in excess of ten lengths at Group 1 and Group 2 level.

Favourite factor: Nine clear market leaders have won this event during the last 19 years alongside a joint favourite. 14 of the 20 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.  Every winner during the previous 11 years had been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, before Arabian Queen scored at 50/1 to inflict one of just two defeats during the career of Golden Horn (4/9) in the contest twelve months ago.

Record of course winners in the 'Juddmonte' field:

1/1--Arab Spring (good)

1/2--Mutakayyef (good to soft)

1/1--My Dream Boat (good to soft)

1/1--Postponed (good to firm)

2/5--The Grey Gatsby (good to firm & good to soft)

1/1--Wings Of Desire (good to firm)

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4.20: Four and five-year-olds had shared the six contests, before another five-year-old obliged twelve months ago t give the vintage an 'edge' thus far.  I don't think that in form trainer Sylvester Kirk can grumble too much for a sixteen ounce 'penalty' after PERCY VEER finished second in the Goodwood Stakes recently, with the four-year-old still looking to be on a handy mark.  THE CASHEL MAN is another vintage representative expected to go well, whilst the two five-year-olds MONTALY and NAKEETA more than deserve their places in the line up.

Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites have finished in the frame thus far, statistics which include two (9/2 & 5/2) winners.

Course winners in the marathon contest:

1/1--Eshtiaal (good)

2/10--Saved By The Bell (good & good to firm)

4.55: Nine of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 8-13 or less, whilst high (stall) numbers have dominated in recent years.  Putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of FARLEIGH MAC (10/20),  NAAFER (15) and SPIN DOCTOR (7) in the toteplacepot finale.  The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to the all weather winner LATEST QUEST (16) .

Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored via 14 renewals of this two-year-old handicap.  Six of the last eight winners have scored at 33/1-33/1-20/1-12/1-12/1-12/1.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2--Nautical Heaven (good to firm)

1/1--Naafer (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the York card on Wednesday:

6--Aidan O'Brien (0/4 at York this season)

5--Mark Johnston (2/34 - winners at 9/1 & 5/1)

5--Kevin Ryan (4/28 - winners at 5/1-9/2-3/1-13/8*)

4--Richard Fahey (5/75 winners at 33/1-20/1-10/1-5/1-4/1)

3--Andrew Balding (0/5)

3--William Haggas (4/14 - winners at 11/1-3/1-11/4*-3/1*)

3--Sir Michael Stoute (3/7 - winners at 6/1-11/4-9/4*)

2--David Barron (0/9)

2--Clive Cox (0/1)

2--Mick Easterby (0/21)

2--Richard Hannon (2/16 - winners at 14/1 & 12/1)

2--Sylvester Kirk (---)

2--Paul Midgley (0/21)

2--David O'Meara (1/65 - winner at 8/1)

2--Roger Varian (2/15 - winners at 5/1 & 15/8*)

2--Ian Williams (0/1)

+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

84 declared runners

 

General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: £31.60 - 6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced (Keith Dalgleish claimed a 45/1 double twelve months ago - six entries)

Chepstow: This is a new fixture on the calendar 

Kempton (A/W): £58.50 - 6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced (James Fanshawe: 12/1 double on last year's card - 1 declaration)

Worcester: £1,186.40 - 8 favourites - No winners - 3 placed - 5 unplaced (Peter Bowen - 23/1 double in 2015 - 4 runners on Thursday)

 

York overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events at 2.30 & 4.55:

2.30 (Acomb Stakes): 

5/88--Mark Johnston (Bear Valley)

0/6--Hugo Palmer (Best Of Days)

0/4--Aidan O'Brien (Courage Under Fire)

2/9--Andrew Balding (Galactic Prince)

11/39--William Haggas (Locheed)

3/42--Richard Hannon (Majeste)

18/96--Kevin Ryan (Syphax & Tommy Taylor)

4.55 (Nursery event):

3/42--Richard Hannon (Mutawatheb)

0/9--Eve Johnson Houghton (Super Julius)

5/54--Karl Burke (Burrishole Abbey)

8/132--David Barron (Wick Powell)

5/88--Mark Johnston (Masham Star-La Costa Tarica-Lonely The Brave-Storm Cay)

18/96--Kevin Ryan (Nautucal Heaven)

0/3--Jeremy Noseda (Kamra)

11/39--William Haggas (Naafer)

15/181--Richard Fahey (Spin Doctor-Navarone-The Waggon Wheel)

2/10--David Evans (Letmestopyouthere)

9/73--Charlie Hills (Parys Mountain)

2/9--Andrew Balding (Farleigh Mac)

No runners--Jim Boyle (El Torito)

No runners--Ian Williams (Turanga Leela)

0/1--Sylvester Kirk (Latest Quest)

 

 

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