NEWBURY - DECEMBER 14
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £24.10 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (12.20): 1 (Cosmeapolitan) & 4 (Light Of Air)
Leg 2 (12.55): 16 (Wenyerreadyfreddie), 9 (High Bridge) & 5 (Cruiseaway)
Leg 3 (1.30): 1 (Beware The Bear), 7 (Monbeg Gold) & 9 (Ballywilliam)
Leg 4 (2.00): 3 (Just A Par), 4 (Three Faces West) & 5 (Drumacoo)
Leg 5 (2.35): 6 (Smoking Jacket), 4 (After Hours) & 8 (Very Live)
Leg 6 (3.10): 3 (Bags Groove) & 1 (Tintern Theatre)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.20: COSPEAPOLITAN reached the reasonable mark of 92 on the level (last time out) which should be high enough to land this opening contest if Alan King’s raider takes to timber at the first time of asking. Alan is so strong in the juvenile sector whereby he could have declared any number of horses I’ll wager, with COSMEAPOLITAN (Alan’s only runner on the card) obviously showing the trainer plenty of potential back at the ranch. Connections might have most to fear from LIGHT OF AIR and fellow newcomer FIXED RATE.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won nine of the last 14 contests, with the other gold medallists scoring at 25/1-16/1-7/1-7/1. 12 of the 15 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
12.55: Nicky Henderson has won five of the last 15 renewals (without being represented every year by any means) whereby WENYERREADYFREDDIE is the first name on the team sheet ahead of HIGH BRIDGE and CRUISEAWAY. The latter named Tom George raider was made favourite for a warm race at Sandown recently and though being pulled up that day, this looks an easier race to win, notwithstanding Nicky’s fine record in the contest. My trio against the field are all five-year-olds, vintage representatives having won six renewals during the last decade.
Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders have obliged to date alongside a joint favourite. 14 of the 17 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.
1.30: The last eight renewals have been won by horses carrying a minimum weight of eleven stones which narrows the field from 13 down to eight if we take the stats seriously, taking a claiming jockey into account. Six-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals which brings BEWARE THE BEAR, MONBEG GOLD and BALLYWILLIAM into the equation, notwithstanding Nicky Henderson (BEWARE THE BEAR) also having declared two other inmates, one of which is six-year-old CARACCHI APACHE. I get the distinct impression that this renewal will take some winning and the race should be worth recording for future reference.
Favourite factor: Eight of the 10 favourites (three winners) have claimed toteplacepot positions to date.
2.00: Paul Nicholls only has two entries on the card, the best of which is JUST A PAR from my viewpoint, especially with the nine-year-old being a course and distance winner at the Berkshire venue. THREE FACES WEST and DRUMACOO are likely to offer stern challenges at the business end of the contest. JUST A PAR is the oldest horse in the field but there are no young pretenders (five-year-olds) who ‘could be anything’ whereby plenty of experience might win the day.
Favourite factor: The eight favourites have secured four gold and two silver medal thus far, the shortest priced (4/11) favourite being one of only four ‘jollies’ to let the side down from a win perspective. Last year’s 11/8 market leader missed out on a Placepot position despite finishing second because the contest only attracted four runners.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/1—Just A Par (good to soft)
2.35: Venetia Williams hasn’t got her team quite up to fever pitch yet and with the ground possibly not being soft enough for her raider Cepage, I’m inclined to wait for another day for the newcomer to these shores. Preference goes to SMOKING JACKET and AFTER HOURS, whilst VERY LIVE could be added to the mix with Paul Webber’s string going well at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite duly obliged.
3.10: Five-year-olds have landed nine renewals during the last 14 years whilst vintage representatives have secured 13 of the last 21 available toteplacepot positions for good measure. The pick of this year's seven vintage representatives should prove to be BAGS GROOVE and TINTERN THEATRE, with WESTERNDORF offered the overnight reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: Five of the last 14 renewals have been secured by favourites, during which time, 10 winners have scored at odds of 11/2 or less.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Wednesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
5 winners—Philip Hobbs (19/111 – Profit of 61 points)
4—Chris Gordon (1/18 – loss of 24 points)
4—Nicky Henderson (36/160 – loss of 21 points)
4—Dan Skelton (6/35 – loss of 3 points)
3—Tom George (6/67 – loss of 31 points)
3—Gary Moore (6/68 – loss of 12 points)
3—Jonjo O’Neill (9/90 – loss of 34 points)
3—Ben Pauling (4/14 – Profit of 6 points)
2—Robin Dickin (4/17 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Harry Fry (13/46 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Stuart Kittow (No runners)
2—Emma Lavelle (0/38)
2—Charlie Mann (0/24)
2—Anabel K Murphy (No runners)
2—Paul Nicholls (29/159 (loss of 18 points)
2—David Pipe (16/114 (loss of 27 points)
2—Mark Pitman (0/2)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (11/89 (Profit of 15 points)
2—Tim Vaughan (2/34 – loss of 19 points)
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
79 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Lingfield: £17.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 unplaced – 2 unplaced
Kempton: £6.10 – 6 runners – 2 winners & 4 placed
Musselburgh – This is a new meeting