LEICESTER - DECEMBER 28
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £291.00 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Leicester:
Leg 1 (12.55): 3 (Little Pop), 1 (Herons Heir) & 2 (Sir Note)
Leg 2 (1.25): 1 (Rathealy) & 2 (Cappielow Park)
Leg 3 (2.00): 4 (The Italian Yob), 1 (Foundation Man) & 9 (Oliver’s Hill)
Leg 4 (2.35): 3 (Gray Day) & 10 (Royal Village)
Leg 5 (3.10): 1 (Father Edward) & 2 (Master Dee)
Leg 6 (3.40): 6 (Ozzy Thomas), 2 (Sleeping Haven) & 4 (Cousin Kee)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.55: All four horses to have claimed Placepot positions to date have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones, statistics which eliminate three of the seven runners if you take the figures (like yours truly) seriously. LITTLE POP will probably relish the fast ground more than the other pair of ‘qualifiers, namely HERONS HEIR and SIR NOTE.
Favourite factor: Both of the (15/8 & 9/4) favourites have obliged to date.
1.25: Six-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals, whilst all seven winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-3 to date. Indeed, the last five winners have carried 10-12 or less. With no six-year-olds in the line-up this time around, David Pipe has a fine opportunity of improving an already brilliant 44% strike rate at Leicester having declared his course winner RATHEALY. David’s 12 winners during the last five winners at this venue have produced 14 points of level stake profit whereby his Baltic king gelding is the first name on the team sheet ahead of CAPPIELOW PARK who lacks a recent run, whilst heavy ground would have brought the pair closer together from my viewpoint. Great Link looks booked for the bronze medal.
Favourite factor: Favourites come to the gig on a four timer with all seven winners having scored at a top price of 10/1 thus far. Four of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame though as a word of warning, one of the ‘casualties’ was sent off as an 8/15 chance back in 2011.
Record of the course winner in the field:
2.00: Eight-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals, with seven-year-olds picking up the other two contests during that particular study period. Nick Williams is live to the ‘edge’ having declared THE ITALIAN YOB who could take this renewal, chiefly at the expense of hat trick seeker FOUNDATION MAN and OLIVER’S HILL, who has won on firm ground at the venue before.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have secured two of the last eight contests during which time, only one of the other six favourites additionally secured a toteplacepot position.
Record of the course winners in the third race on the card:
1/1—Foundation Man (firm)
1/1—Milgen Bay (good to soft)
1/3—Oliver’s Hill (firm)
2.35: With Leicester suffering from a lack of water from the heavens this season, it’s quite ironic that a race with a title which includes the words tap & shower should be contested on the card! Four and five-year-olds have (equally) secured six of the nine contests between them and if the trend is to be extended, course and distance winner GRAY DAY and ROYAL WARRIOR should lead the relevant horses home.
Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites won during the last eleven years, the other three gold medallists having scored at 5/2, 7/1 & 10/1.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event:
1/1—Gray Day (good)
3.10: I spoke of David Pipe’s great record at the track earlier on the card and his other runner contests this penultimate Placepot event, namely FATHER EDWARD. Although recent form figures might look a little sketchy, it’s worth noting that David’s seven-year-old has finished ‘in the three’ on all eight assignments over timber, statistics which include two victories which were both recorded under good to firm conditions. It’s a relatively well kept secret that trainer Fergal O’Brien has saddled 26 winners since the end of September via the same strike rate, a ratio which has produced 47 points of level stake profits. Fergal saddles hat trick seeker MASTER DEE, with Paddy Brennan’s mount offering the greatest threat to the marginal selection.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 1/3 favourite duly obliged.
Record of the course winner in the fifth contest:
1/2—Next Exit (firm)
3.40: Six and seven-year-olds have (equally) secured four of the last six contests, though the 'younger set' were only conspicuous by their absence twelve months ago. Six of the eight winners during the last decade carried a minimum of 11-1, a stat which potentially eliminates the only seven-year-old in the field Hartside. Horses with ticks in both trend boxes are OZZY THOMAS and SLEEPING HAVEN, with nine-year-old COUSIN KEE completing my trio against the remaining nine contenders.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have won the last four renewals of the toteplacepot finale. Six of the eight favourites have finished in the frame (exact science).
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Favorite Girl (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Leicester card on Wednesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
4—runners—Dan Skelton (3/16 – Profit of 3 points)
3—Lawney Hill (0/18)
3—Peter Winks (0/4)
2—Jenny Candlish (0/15)
2—Sophie Leech (0/8)
2—Fergal O’Brien (5/34 – Profit of 10 points)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (5/48 – loss of 30 points)
2—David Pipe (12/27 – Profit of 14 points)
2—Sue Smith (0/4)
2—Nick Williams (0/2)
2—Venetia Williams (10/38 - loss of 5 points)
+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
55 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Catterick: £175.20 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)
Lingfield A/W: £92.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced