Placepot Pointers – Wednesday December 7

LEICESTER - DECEMBER 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £614.40 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Wednesday: 

Leg 1 (12.55): 2 (Foundation Man), 3 (Great Link) & 1 (Violets Boy)

Leg 2 (1.25): 1 (Abricot De L’Oasis), 5 (Towering) & 4 (Ten Sixty)

Leg 3 (1.55): 2 (Unify) & 1 (Opechee)

Leg 4 (2.25): 7 (Mortens Leam) & 4 (Destiny’s Star)

Leg 5 (2.55): 4 (Trapper Peak) & 2 (Bohemian Rhapsody)

Leg 6 (3.25): 2 (No Ceiling), 1 (Prince Khurram) & 3 (Oliver’s Hill)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.55: Six of the last eight winners have been burdened with 11-4 or more and if you take the stats seriously, you will only have to assess three of the four runners in the contest.  The pick of the relevant runners should prove to be FOUNDATION MAN over GREAT LINK and VIOLETS BOY.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have prevailed via twelve renewals during which time, eleven winners have scored at a top price of 9/1.  Seven of the twelve market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

1.25: The last six winners have carried a minimum of 11-2 and although all eight runners ‘qualify’ this time around, I thought I would leave the stats in for those of you that retain such records.  Dan Skelton (ABRICOT DE L’OASIS) secured a 40/1 double on Tuesday and his top weighted raider could make amends for being a dual beaten favourite, given the grade/company this time around.  Connections might have most to fear from TOWERING and TEN SIXTY.  It’s good to see the Pitman name back on a race-card, though Mark’s representative Stop The Press might need the ground to soften before making an impact.
Favourite factor: The only favourite (of eight) to miss out on a toteplacepot position finished fourth in a fourteen runner contest, statistics which include three of the last six winners.

1.55: A poor contest and no mistake with UNIFY expected to be good enough to snare the spoils with the Midnight Legend mare having won three of her last six races. Anthony Honeyball’s six-year-old retains a little scope for further improvement, not that it will be needed to cope with these rivals if she maintains her current form.  The bottom two horses in the handicap are hopelessly adrift of their proper marks whereby OPECHEE is the forecast call.
Favourite factor: Six renewals had slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded before last year’s 3/1 market leader obliged.  Six of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame during the last twelve years.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Next Exit (firm)

2.25: Four-year-olds (9/1, 4/1 & 8/11*) have won all three renewals to date via less than 40% of the total number of runners, statistics which bode well for the chances of MORTENS LEAM and DESTINY’S STAR.  The first named Pam Sly raider represents a trainer who has won with three of her last seven runners, results which have produced 25 points of level stake profits. GENEROUS HELPINGS receives the alternative vote.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have finished in the frame (one winner) though I have to point out that last year’s 4/11 market leader could only finish third in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner events in which only the first two horses home ‘qualify’ from each way/Placepot perspectives.

2.55: Seven-year-olds have secured five of the last ten contests in a race which is confined to horses aged between four and seven years of age.  TRAPPER PEAK and BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY are this year’s vintage representatives and this pair are taken ahead of MOSS STREET from the top of the handicap.
Favourite factor: Ten of the last thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four successful market leaders alongside one joint favourite.  Readers should be aware however that market leaders sent off at 1/3 and 1/2 have been beaten in recent years.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race on the card:

1/1—Trapper Peak (good to soft)

3.25: It would be churlish in the extreme to attempt to choose between the three declarations in the Placepot finale, simply hoping that the horse with the least number of units prevails.  In marginal order of preference, the trio is listed as NO CEILING, PRICE KHURRAM and OLIVER’S HILL.
Favourite factor: Only one of the four favourites has finished in the money to date via just two renewals (no winners).

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All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Leicester card on Wednesday – followed by their five year stats + profits/losses accrued to level stakes:

3 runners—Jonjo O’Neill (4/45 – loss of 29 points)

3—Mark Pitman (0/1)

2—David Bridgwater (3/17 – loss of 2 points)

2—Philip Hobbs (5/15 – loss of 2 points)

2—Lawney Hill (0/9)

2—Donald McCain (2/18 – loss of 4 points)

2—Gary Moore (2/10 – Profit of 3 points)

2—Jamie Snowden (1/7 – loss of 1 point)

+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

38 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Hexham: Meeting Abandoned

Kempton: £195.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £10.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

 

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3 replies
  1. hadley nye says:

    Hi M, thank you for leaving the extra stats in, i am compiling a file now(just incase someone else snaps you up and you leave:) Right, I cant belive i never mixed up chuckmeister in the mix yesterday i ll be honest with you i ve hedged some and at the mo i ve been looking(doing) the place markets and mixing it up into doubles(dangerous I know), fell flat yesturday but onwards and upwards. You have me intrigued, i ve never done one, I know how to get the placepot up and I get the stakes you suggest, am I correct in (Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend) = the figure you returned? so if its 10.90 its its a tenner last year or 90 or as last years stats say for the today 614.40 off of your twenty odd quid bet? i ve never done one and guess i ve always thought id never really see a return id like to see. However im a realist and if i break even that is good, so profit is profit in my book i just did nt want to through away doe to return pence. Im on board. Nice work again, thumbs up

    • MalBoyle
      MalBoyle says:

      No worries Hadley – Yeah, the £10.90 is based to a one stake and you can place unties stakes from 10p upwards. There might still be the odd bookmaker around who takes multiples of 5p but they are few and far between Sir. It’s a bet that frustrates like hell at times (like yesterday) though equally, it is intriguing, especially if you like laying off which I did in the fifth race at Fontwell yesterday. When you wrote a a few weeks back I didn’t want to get too involved in explaining why (particularly in the last few legs) I utilise favourites so much, but after yesterday, you can probably see why. If I have proper trends in place for races when I opt for outsiders (like the last leg yesterday), I can lay those fancied horses at really short prices from a place perspective. I have adopted that approach in the past re accumulative win wages – If you put a 10/1 chance in the last leg it’s going to cost you too much to lay off positively, whereas laying a 6/4 chance makes life so much easier…. Best of luck today!

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