NEWBURY – JANUARY 18
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend: Meeting abandoned
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (1.15): 1 (Final Choice) & 2 (Flying Tiger)
Leg 2 (1.50): 5 (Hidden Cargo), 2 (Beyond Conceit) & 6 (Joueur Brasilien)
Leg 3 (2.20): 4 (Red Devil Star), 5 (Britanio Bello) & 2 (Max Ward)
Leg 4 (2.55): 10 (Audacious Plan), 5 (Potters Corner) & 7 (Brandon Hill)
Leg 5 (3.25): 2 (Theatre Terrirory) & 5 (Thegirlfrommilan)
Leg 6 (3.55): 2 (Bang On Frankie) & 11 (Pearlesque)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.15: It is quite unusual for there to be a marked difference between the two tracks in terms of the projected going and I am hoping that the ground is not too bad on the hurdle course, given that my selection FINAL CHOICE won on good to soft ground over course and distance just eighteen days ago. Richard Johnson’s mount was very impressive that day and but for this concern, the Warren Greatrex Makfi representative would have been my clear selection. Conversely, there is probably nothing to fear for connections of FLYING TIGER which is unsettling to say the least, especially with Lizzie Kelly taking off a useful five pounds via her claim for which she offers tremendous value. I note the trade press have my selection in at 8/15 at the time of writing but if the ground is as bad as early reports suggest, 8/11 might be nearer the might I’ll wager. Two of the last five runners saddled by Oliver Greenall have won and with his raider Zalvados also having handled such conditions well enough in the past, this might not evolve simply into a two runner affair.
Favourite factor: Five of the 11 renewals to date have been won by market leaders, whilst nine of the 12 favourites have finished in the frame.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1/1—Final Choice (good to soft)
1.50: BEYOND CONCEIT was a really decent type on the level (a victory on heavy ground was recorded out of interest), though the thick end of four years have passed since running of an official mark of 92, whereby confidence cannot be too high. That said, Nicky Henderson is the relevant trainer and the eight-year-old Galileo gelding will still attract plenty of support. The experience gained by Alan King’s Stowaway gelding HIDDEN CARGO could gain the day however, especially with Alan having his team in good form at present, especially in hurdle events of late. Alan is well on target for having his best season since 2008/09, whilst his hurdle record at Newbury this season stands at 4/10. Davy Russell is an eye catching booking for the Rebecca Curtis raider JOUEUR BRASILIEN, with the team certainly adding interest to proceedings.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newbury card.
2.20: Although only six runners line up for this event, there are a few horses that flatter to deceive on a regular basis in my book, whereby this eveny is not as cut and dried as others might believe. A race to be a layer rather than a player I fancy, my tentative trio against the remaining trio consists of RED DEVIL STAR, BRITANIO BELLO and MAX WARD. No amount of persuasion could get me to part with cash from a win perspective!
Favourite factor: The inaugural 6/4 favourite duly obliged in 2015 before last year’s race was abandoned.
2.55: Eight of the last 10 winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more, whilst eight-year-olds have secured four of the last 10 renewals. AUDACIOUS PLAN is the only horse with ticks in both boxes whereby the Rebecca Curtis raider is the first name on the team sheet. Adam Wedge is due to ride the Old Vic representative, with Davy Russell booked aboard POTTERS CORNER for Paul Morgan this time around. BRANDON HILL completes my trio against the other eleven contenders having won three of his last four races, with the handicapper praying that a seven pound rise is enough to curb his enthusiasm on this occasion. I’m far from convinced that half a stone is enough to stop him in his tracks, certainly not from a Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor: Eight of the 12 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders.
Record of the course winner in the fourth race:
1/4--Little Jon (soft)
1/5--Bob Tucker (good to soft)
1/5--Horatio Hornblower (good)
1/1--Get Involved (soft)
3.25: THEATRE TERRITORY has not won on ground as soft as this before but nonetheless, his chance appears second to none in this grade/company. Sam Waley-Cohen (surely the best conditional of all time of those that did not lose their claim) takes the ride in the famous brown/orange colours. Davy Russell rides another runner for Rebecca Curtis here in THEGIRLFROMMILAN who looks set to chase the favourite home.
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 9/4 favourite snared a bronze medal alongside a toteplacepot position.
3.55: BANG ON FRANKIE was a ‘popular outsider’ in a warm race at Ascot when finishing third, doing all his best work late in the day which bodes well for his chance here, providing the ground has not cut up too badly by the time the starter has dropped his flag in the finale. Others of interest in a race worth recording include PEARLESQUE, ABSOLUTE POWER and MIDNIGHT MAGIC.
Favourite factor: The 6/5 favourite in the inaugural toteplacepot finale last year missed out on a Placepot position when finishing third in a six runner contest.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Wednesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Rebecca Curtis (9/64 – Profit of 6 points)
3—Nicky Henderson (38/171 – loss of 27 points)
3—Gary Moore (6/73 – loss of 17 points)
3—David Pipe (16/115 – loss of 28 points)
2—George Baker (0/6)
2—David Bridgwater (1/7 – level)
2—Dai Burchell (No runners)
2—Warren Greatrex (11/62 – loss of 8 points)
2—Philip Hobbs (21/116 – Profit of 87 points)
2—Alan King (19/161 – loss of 65 points)
2—Paul Morgan (0/1)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (9/93 – loss of 37 points)
2—Richard Rowe (1/3 – Profit of 12 points)
2—Colin Tizzard (10/81 – loss of 28 points)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (Profit of 12 points)
2—Harry Whittington (4/17 – Profit of 60 points)
2—Evan Williams (2/36 – loss of 12 points)
2—Nick Williams (3/41 – loss of 13 points)
+ 18 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
59 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Market Rasen: £184.70 – 6 favourites – winners & 3 unplaced
Kempton: £452.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Lingfield: £553.10 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced