SANDOWN - JULY 26
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £282.50 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Sandown :
Leg 1 (6.00): 1 (Pack It In), 7 (Sir Jack) & 6 (Jack Of Diamonds)
Leg 2 (6.35): 4 (Itsakindamagic) & 6 (Almorab)
Leg 3 (7.10): 7 (Red Mist), 4 (Bold Reason) & 8 (Sam Gold)
Leg 4 (7.40): 5 (Sultan Baybars) & 6 (Fox Trotter)
Leg 5 (8.10): 7 (Taper Tantrum), 3 (Clowance One) & 5 (West Drive)
Leg 6 (8.40): 1 (Alsvinder), 3 (Francisco) & 5 (Stoneyford Lane)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Five year study of this corresponding meeting:
30 races – 9 winning favourites – 28/30 winners scored at a top price of 9/1
Average Placepot dividend on the Wednesday of the two day fixture: £162.78
Best trainer stats during the two days of the fixture with runners on Wednesday:
7 winners--Andrew Balding (9/1, 9/1, 7/1, 9/2, 11/4, 2/1* & 7/4*) – 2 runners: Breakheart (6.00) & Itsakindamagic (6.30)
3 winners—Michael Bell (11/2, 9/2 & 5/4*) – 1 runner: Taper Tantrum (8.10)
Footnote: Watch out for Andrew’s runners on Thursday as five of his seven winners over the course of the two days came on day two of the meeting.
Sir Michael Stoute (not represented on Wednesday) has saddled six winners down the years, four of which secured on the Thursday – all details will be featured in Thursday’s service.
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
6.00: Four-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals which brings in the likes of PACK IT IN, SIR JACK and ARCHIMENTO into the mix, with vintage representatives on offer at 9/4 to improve the recent ratio before the form book is consulted. The trio is listed in order of preference. That said, JACK OF DIAMONDS might be worth a small bet if you are looking for a more speculative punt, especially as Roger Teal has saddled his last two runners to winning effect at 25/1 & 20/1.
Favourite factor: Nine of the twelve market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far via eight renewals, statistics which include five winners.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
1/8—Jack Of Diamonds (good)
1/3—Breakheart (good to firm)
6.35: Three-year-olds have secured seven of the last ten renewals of this event, with four of the nine runners hailing from the vintage this time around. It only took two relevant raider to win the race between them twelve months ago, whereby there is plenty of confidence in landing the spoils on this occasion. ITSAKINDAMAGIC represents Andrew Balding who has dominated this meeting in recent seasons and with more rain expected to fall this morning/afternoon leading up to tonight’s meeting, Andrew’s Mount Nelson colt demands plenty of respect. ALMORAB has won under todays projected conditions (could be soft by flag fall), with Richard Hannon’s raider preferred to Testbourne as the main threat to the selection.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the eleven renewals to date, with seven of the thirteen market leaders having finished in the frame.
Record of the course winner in the second contest:
1/5—Mister Music (good)
7.10: Market leaders have a very good record in this contest as you can see for yourself below. It appears that you can ignore the 9/4 trade press quote for RED MIST (Frankel representative) who has already been the subject of plenty of support, with 15/8 being a more likely return. In case that does not appear as a great differential between the two prices, the difference is roughly the same as a horse being backed in from 9/1 to 6/1. BOLD REASON and SAM GOLD hail from the powerful Gosden and Varian yards respectively and have to be included in the Placepot mix.
Favourite factor: 12 of the last 21 favourites have won this contest, whilst 17 market leaders have reach the frame during the study period.
7.40: ‘Tapwater’ (Michael Attwater) does not grab headlines very often but with his last two runners have been saddled to winning effect at 20/1 & 7/2, the chance of PROFESSOR is respected, though SULTAN BAYBARS (one of eight booked rides for SDS with good chances today) should take the beating in all honesty. Five of Roger Varian’s last six winners (via 14 raiders) have been returned as favourites, with the other gold medallist returned at just 2/1. FOX TROTTER handles the ground and with 4/1 freely available at the time of writing, punters might view Brian Meehan’s Bushranger gelding as an each way ‘bet to nothing’ investment. For new readers, the term ‘bet to nothing’ basically means that punters would receive their money back if the selection is placed, even if it has not won. As horses have to finish in the first two in this event because there only six entries, one quarter of the odds are offered as place terms, whereby 4/1 represents a ‘bet to nothing’ if Fox Trotter finishes second, if a price of 4/1 has been secured.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/1 favourites (unusually) finished out of the frame finishing fourth behind horses that filled the frame having been returned at 5/1, 5/1 & 7/1.
8.10: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 7-3 during the last 14 years. Four-year-olds are around the 11/8 mark to increase their recent dominance before the form book is consulted. Although Michael Bell’s three winners were gained on the Thursday of this two day meeting during the last five years, Michael’s five-year-old representative TAPER TANTRUM has been the subject of a little support overnight and if Louis Steward is allowed to set his own fractions aboard the tentative selection, Michael could be celebrating another success. Life is full of ‘ups and downs’ as a trainer and for Michael, this would be a poignant winner, having attended the funeral of Mercy Rimell yesterday. Michael started his career with the team in the west-country and his eulogy yesterday produced lots of laughter and tears, with only some of it (seemingly) being printable. Those of us who have been in the game for over 50 years grew up on the great careers of Fred & Mercy who took no prisoners in those days when political correctness had no place in a ‘hard working’ environment! It was no different at Fred Winter’s stable and certainly not with Arthur Stephenson ‘oop north’ who would have had little or no time for the way things pan out today. Upwards and onward by suggesting that CLOWANCE ONE and WEST DRIVE should offer challenges to TAPER TANTRUM at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders have won during the last twenty years alongside two joint favourites. 13 of the 24 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Record of the course winner in the fifth race:
1/3—Taper Tantrum (good to firm)
8.40: Horses carrying 9-5 or more have won all three renewals whist securing six of the eight available Placepot positions via 56% of the total number of runners. The stats suggest that the likes of ALSVINDER and FRANCISCO should wrap up the Placepot for us if we were live going into the finale. If however, the ground has cut up really badly, the chance of STONEYFORD LANE would improve to the point of being included in the Placepot equation. All that said, I would not have a bet from a win perspective in this contest with your money!
Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have secured one medal of each colour whilst securing Placepot poisitions.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Bahamian Sunrise (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Richard Hannon (4/27 – loss of 8 points)
3—Michael Attwater (No previous runners this season at Sandown)
3—Tony Carroll (No previous runners)
3—Brian Meehan (2/8 – Profit of 1 point)
3—Roger Varian (5/9 – Profit of 5 points)
2—Andrew Balding (0/13)
2—Karl Burke (3/7 – Profit of 24 points)
+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
47 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Bath: £107.70 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Catterick: £41.50 – 6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 unplaced
Leicester: £11.20 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Lingfield: £69.80 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced