Placepot pointers – Wednesday July 27

GOODWOOD - JULY 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £8.20 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 placed) - the lowest dividend during the last five years

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 6 (The Cashel Man), 4 (Win Place And Sho), 13 (Star Rider) & 16 (Diamond Joel)

Leg 2 (2.35): 2 (Harrison), 9 (Ulysses) & 3 (Platitude)

Leg 3 (3.10): 8 (Galileo Gold) & 2 (Kodi Bear)

Leg 4 (3.45): 7 (Sportsmanship), 2 (Global Applause)  & 5 (Nayyar)

Leg 5 (4.20): 3 (Bouquet De Flores), 9 (High Excitement) & 2 (Bithynia)

Leg 6 (4.55): 6 (Rioca) & 1 (Sagaciously)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Five years stats for the second day of Glorious Goodwood:

Average Placepot dividend: £297.42 - 32 favourites - 10 winners - 9 placed - 13 unplaced

35 races in total:

11 winning favourites - 24 winners at SP of 9/1 or less - 11 winners at 10/1 or more

 

Leading trainers on the second day of the meeting covering 2011 - 2015 inclusive:

3 winners: Mark Johnston (14/1-14/1-7/1)

 

Leading winners in the trainer sector during the entire week via the study period of five years:

17 winners--Mark Johnston

8 winners--Richard Hannon - though 'Team Hannon' is responsible for 25 gold medallists in total

 

Favourite and SP stats for the last five years (2011 - 2015):

175 races:

177 winners - 2 races resulted in a dead heat on the same day (Friday) in 2012!

45 winning favourites - 25.7% winners/races

119 winners were returned a t a top price of 9/1 - 67.2% of all winners

58 winners were sent off at 10/1 or more (32.8%)

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last seventeen renewals of this Goodwood Stakes event, notwithstanding the narrow ‘three parts’ defeat of my fancy Seaside Sizzler five years ago at 14/1.  Seven vintage representatives line up this time around, the pick of which could prove to be THE CASHEL MAN, WIN PLACE AND SHO, STAR RIDER and DIAMOND JOEL.  I will probably abstain from a bet from a win perspective, opting to offer four horses against the field which will be funded by not having a 'single wager' on the race.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored during the last 18 years, whilst 13 of the 25 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.  That said, the beaten 11/8 favourite two years ago was an expensive casualty for many investors.

Records of course winners in the opening contest: 

1/3--Albahaar (good)

1/5--Teak (good to firm)

1/3--Eton Rambler (good)

1/2--Revision (soft)

2.35: With Mick Channon's runners going well just now, this could be the turn of HARRISON to win a Group race which in truth, might not take a great deal of winning. The three Irish raiders demand respect obviously, though it might be Sir Michael Soute's pair PLATITIUDE and ULYSSES that offer most resistance at the business end of the contest.  Michael's latter named raider was well backed in the Epsom Derby 'late doors' which suggests that there is more ability lurking under the saddle than he been shown on the racecourse thus far.

Favourite factor: Market leaders of one description or another have won five of the last ten renewals of the Group 3 Gordon Stakes, whilst the last twelve gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 7/1.

Records of the course winner in the second race on the card: 

1/1--Harrison (good to soft)

3.10: Seven of the last eight favourites have won this Group 1 Sussex Stakes, whilst three-year-olds have won 12 of the last 17 renewals. It might not take a great deal of rain (showers are forecast) to change the ground which could be an advantage to punters, given the fact that the four course winners have all scored at the Sussex track with moisture in the ground.  GALILEO GOLD would certainly go to the top of my list if 'soft' featured anywhere in the going description by the time the feature event on day three of the meeting was contested.  There was lots to like about his performance under soft conditions at the royal meeting and Hugo Palmer's raider would be a tough nut to crack if the forecast proved accurate.  KODI BEAR is not quite so reliant on rain from my viewpoint and with the Clive Cox runners in rude health just now, Adam Kirby's mount could emerge as the (each way) value for money punt in the Group 1 contest.  THE GURKHA completes my trio against the other seven contenders.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have obliged during the last eighteen years, whilst 16 of the 19 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Records of course winners in the Sussex Stakes: 

1/1--Kodi Bear (soft)

1/3--So beloved (soft)

2/3--Toormoor (2 x good to soft)

1/1--Galileo Gold (good to soft)

3.45: ‘Team Hannon’ have secured three of the last six winners of the ‘Molecomb’ and I find it significant that Richard has no runners in the race this time around. Whatever the media like to hype up, Richard's two-year-olds have not run up to expectations in general terms this year from what I have witnessed. SPORTSMANSHIP makes some appeal at the 6/1 trade press quote at the time of writing, especially as Aidan O'Brien is 2/2 with his juveniles here at Goodwood during the last five years following the victory of War Decree on Tuesday.  GLOBAL APPLAUSE and NAYYAR are feared most.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last nineteen years (level stake profit of £149.23 to one hundred pound stakes), whilst eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

4.20: The only trainer to have saddled two winners of this contest during the last decade (Brian Meehan) is not represented and having made the point about Richard Hannon's runners in the previous event on the card, it's interesting to note that the trainer has declared four runners this time around. Street Cry juveniles are difficult to predict whereby the 10/11 starting price about BOUQUET DE FLORES on debut was difficult to fathom.  Sure enough, the support proved to be 'wayward', though something 'back at the ranch' must have triggered such a punt.  Charlie Appleby can do little wrong at the track this year whereby his February foal is offered another chance, whilst alternative options are suggested as BITHYNIA and HIGH EXCITEMENT who can only improve on her first effort.  Charlie Hills mentioned her as a possible Royal Ascot filly back in the spring whereby her poor Doncaster effort was a surprise to all.

Favourite factor: Nine clear market leaders and one joint favourite (level stake profit of £525.22 to one hundred pound stakes) have prevailed during the last eighteen years.  15 of the 20 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

4.55: Three-year-olds usually get the better of their elders in these mixed vintage events and RIOCA is preferred dual good ground winner (four-year-old) SAGACIOUSLY in the 'lucky last'. RIOCA has won on good and yielding ground whereby the recent weather forecast should not inconvenience Sir Mark Prescott's raider. Sir Mark boasts a recent 8/21 ratio whereby his runners could hardly be in better form.

Favourite factor: The toteplacepot finale is a new race on the Goodwood card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Goodwood card on Wednesday - stats relate to the season before Tuesday's results were known:

8--Richard Hannon (5/24 at Goodwood this season - winners at 16/1-7/1=9/2*-9/2-3/1)

5--Mick Channon (3/18 - winners at 7/2*-5/2*-9/4*)

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5--Mark Johnston (3/18 - winners at 17/2-7/1-5/2)

4--George Baker (0/9)

4--Ed Dunlop (0/5)

4--Aidan O'Brien (---)

3--Richard Fahey (1/4 - winner at 6/1)

3--Charlie Hills (0/5)

3--David O'Meara (---)

3--Amanda Perrett (0/15)

3--David Simcock (3/8 - winners at 10/1-7/1-13/8)

3--Sir Michael Stoute (3/9 - winners at 8/1-2/1*-13/8*)

3--Ian Williams (---)

2--Andrew Balding (2/13 - winners at 4/1 & 5/2*)

2--Tony Carroll (1/5 - winner at 9/1)

2--Simon Crisford (0/2)

2--David Evans (0/11)

2--Slyvester Kirk (1/8 - winner at 11/2)

2--Gary Moore (1/6 - winner at 12/1)

2--Hughie Morrison (1/10 - winner at 13/2)

2--Hugo Palmer (0/3)

2--Sir Mark Prescott (---)

2--Kevin Ryan (---)

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

101 declared runners

 

General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Leicester: £48.20 - 6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced

Redcar: £ £52.50 - 7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced

Sandown: £106.00 - 7 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced

The meeting at Perth was abandoned

 

Goodwood overview - 5 year juvenile records of represented trainers in the relevant events at 3.45 & 4.20:

3.45:

2/9--Tom Dascombe (Big Time Baby)

3/9--Ed Dunlop (Global Applause)

0/2--Harry Dunlop (Just An Idea)

0/2--James Tate (Kyllang Rock)

3/44--Charlie Hills (Nayyar)

0/1--Ann Duffield (Rainbow Mist)

1/1--Aidan O'Brien (Sportsmanship)

0/13--Sylvester Kirk (Springbourne)

13/66--Mark Johnston (The Last Lion & Yalta)

0/10--David Evans (Rapacity Alexander)

No runners--Simon Crisford (Shamsata)

4.20: 

0/3--Joseph Tuite (Acertwo)

2/6--Hugo Palmer (Bithynia)

5/21--Charlie Appleby (Bouquet De Flores)

0/1--Tony Carroll (Compton Poppy)

13/87--Richard Hannon (Curry - Limelight - Promising - Suffragette City)

2/23--Marcus Tregoning (Diva Power)

0/1--Robert Eddery (Fire Palace)

1/15--Gary Moore (Grand Myla)

3/44--Charlie Hills (High Excitement & Paradwys)

13/66--Mark Johnston (Nepeta)

2/15--Eve Johnson Houghton (Nuptials)

2/27--Andrew Balding (Perfect Angel)

0/9--Kevin Ryan (Perfect Madge)

No runners--Simon Crisford (Sky Ballerina)

9/86--Mick Channon (Texas Katie)

3/9--Ed Dunlop (The Lacemaker)

 

 

 

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3 replies
  1. vhlmurphy says:

    The dividends have not been that good this week? 3 favs out of frame today and only £48

    • MalBoyle
      MalBoyle says:

      I did state on day one Vince that the last fourteen days of Glorious Goodwood meetings had passed since the last £1k dividend – make that 16! Saturday’s average dominates Sir, the average dividend during the last five years standing at £3,477.60 – best of luck for the rest of the week – Mal

  2. vhlmurphy says:

    Yes I did take note of that but it just seems a wierd stat, It seems like too much clever money in the pool. Anyway its only day 2. Thanks Vince

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