BATH – JULY 5
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £523.60 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Bath:
Leg 1 (6.00): 5 (Perusing The Dream) & 7 (Aquadabra)
Leg 2 (6.30): 6 (Shumato), 4 (Dyllan) & 3 (Handytalk)
Leg 3 (7.00): 2 (Black Trilby) & 4 (Wonderfullo)
Leg 4 (7.30): 4 (Fujaira Birdge), 2 (I’vegotthepower) & 6 (Pattie)
Leg 5 (8.00): 2 (Daimochi), 3 (X Rated) & 1 (Attain)
Leg 6 (8.30): 7 (Fanfare) & 5 (Bicolour)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
6.00: No trainer has more runners than Mick Channon on the card (four in total) and the trainer will be hoping that his Born To Sea filly AQUADABRA can get her head in front when it matters most after five half decent efforts. Her chance has not been helped by the declaration of PERSUING THE DREAM who was beaten less than five lengths in the ‘Queen Mary’ a fortnight ago. A repeat of that effort would surely be good enough to life this prize en route to better things. Conditions will be the same as when DREAMBOARD ANNIE took the scalp of an odds on favourite over course and distance twelve days ago.
Favourite Factor: Last year’s 15/8 favourite was withdrawn at the start without time for a new market to be formed. Horses reached the ‘short field’ frame when returned at 18/1 & 8/1, a result which went a long way to producing a half decent Placepot dividend (£523.60). New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Record of the course winner in the opening contest:
1/1—Dreamboat Annie (firm)
6.30: Roger Charlton can hardly put a foot wrong these days and there appears to be a golden opportunity for SFUMATO to add to his winning tally in this grade/company, the Bated Breath gelding having scored under fast conditions at Lingfield in August. Ruth Carr is another handler enjoying life at present and Ruth’s northern raider DYLLAN has also been offered a winning chance. I fancy this pair to finished ahead of Royal Mezyan, certainly form a value for money perspective looking at the trade press odds at the time of writing. For the same reason, HANDYTALK completes my trio against the field.
Favourite Factor: The race could not have worked out more differently for the inaugural 7/2 joint favourites than was the case twelve months ago, with one of the market leaders winning the contest, whilst the other ‘jolly’ finished last of six.
Record of course winners in the second event on the card:
4/22—Silverrica (3 x firm & good to soft)
1/1—Secret Potion (good to soft)
7.00: Only beaten five lengths in last year’s ‘Convivial’ at York, BLACK TRILBY has remained a maiden for longer than most of us would have predicted. That said, Clive Cox has surely found the right race for his Helmet colt to go in the right direction now, possibly starting a winning run if the handicapper gives Clive’s March foal a fair mark following this event. Balestra has been disappointing this season whereby Paul Cole’s WONDERFULLO might offer most resistance at the business end of the contest.
Favourite Factor: The inaugural 5/4 market leader failed to score in a four runner 'win only' contest before last year’s 11/10 favourite finished out with the washing with the frame being filled by horses which were sent off at 9/4-40/1-14/1.
7.30: I guess the programme book for trainers to peruse looks that much clearer when you have saddled your last six runners to winning effect! That’s what is relevant here regarding Roger Varian who has declared FUJAIRA BRIDGE with a chance of extending the tally here, though Roger was due to have earlier runners on the day if want to check out his up to date form! I’m not too sure how many times Brian Meehan has ‘doubled up’ with his winners this season but that’s what Brian will hope happens relating to his recent Goodwood winner I’VEGOTTHEPOWER. Pillar Of Society faces much different ground than when scoring at Windsor the last day, whereby PATTIE is preferred.
Favourite Factor: This is a new race on the Bath card.
Record of course winner in the fourth race:
8.00: It’s very rare that I oppose three-year-olds in this type of race, though ATTAIN boasts obvious claims with the fast ground in his favour, as is usually the case at my local racecourse. That said, X RATED and DAIMOCHI look progressive types from the successful yards of Mark Johnston and Clive Cox respectively. The two trainers have contrasting stats at Bath this season; well worth taking a look at the figures below.
Favourite Factor: This is another new event on the Bath programme.
Record of course winner in the fifth event on the card:
1/1—Bayston Hill (firm)
8.30: Richard Hannon (FANFAIR) and Mark Johnston (BICOLOUR) should have the last leg of our favourite wrapped up between them, albeit I would not back either horse to actually win the race. The event should not take a great deal of winning, though neither horse has convinced me that their maiden tags are about to be broken, albeit figuring prominently at the ‘elbow’ should not be beyond their capabilities. Put it this way, I would far rather be a layer than a player in the contest, especially as nothing else make much appeal. The race has ‘bookmakers result’ written all over it from my viewpoint.
Favourite Factor: The Placepot finale is the third new race on the card.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Bath card on Wednesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Mick Channon (2/12 – loss of 2 points)
4—Richard Hannon (6/19 – Profit of 11 points)
3—David Evans (0/13)
3—Mark Johnston (0/12)
3—Rod Millman (0/9)
3—Mark Usher (2/5 – Profit of 14 points)
2—Michael Appleby (0/3)
2—Tony Carroll (0/7)
2—Clive Cox (4/9 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Seamus Durack (0/3)
2—Charlie Hills (2/8 – loss of 3 points)
2—Sylvester Kirk (0/2)
2—Jamie Osborne (0/5)
+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
56 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Catterick: £96.60 – 8 favourites – 1 winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced
Thirsk: This is a new meeting on the calendar
Kempton: £247.30 – 7 favourites – 2 winners & 5 unplaced
Perth: £153.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Worcester: £109.30 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced