CATTERICK - JULY 6
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £68.20 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Catterick:
Leg 1 (2.20): 3 (Decadent Times) & 2 (Eva Gore)
Leg 2 (2.50): 7 (Swashbuckle), 9 (La Salesse) & 4 (Lord Of The Manor)
Leg 3 (3.20): 4 (Springforth) & 1 (The Nazca Lines)
Leg 4 (3.50): 4 (Muroor), 5 (The Lynch Man) & 6 (Novinophobia)
Leg 5 (4.20): 1 (Dominada) & 3 (Dew Pond)
Leg 6 (4.50): 3 (Tanawar), 1 (Dr Red Eye) & 4 (Goadby)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.20: DECADENT TIMES looks to have a chance of being rewarded with a victory after some consistent efforts, whilst EVA GORE represents the in form yard of David O'Meara, the trainer having scored with five of his last seven runners at the time of writing. The contest will take very little winning via a disappointing turn out of just seven runners. TOUGH TO BEAR looks booked for third spot in this 'short field' event, a term which relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/toteplacepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners at odds of 6/5 & 4/7.
2.50: Three-year-olds have won all five renewals thus far and with nine of the ten entries representing the vintage this time around, the trend looks set to be extended. It's hardly surprising that in form trainer Mark Johnston has decided to pitch in a pair of newcomers against horses that would hardly have scared Mark away at the four day stage. LA SALESSE and LORD OF THE MANOR should claim at least one Placepot position between them (and maybe a victory), whilst the pick of the eight experienced runners should prove to be SWASHBUCKLE and STETCHWORTH PARK. That said, Michael Bell's last named raider is pretty well exposed against the majority of his rivals here.
Favourite factor: The first two favourites had finished second before Sir Michael Stoute saddled the last next pair of successful (10/11 & 1/7) market leaders. Last year's (Roger Varian trained) market leader could only finish second in a 'win only' contest twelve months ago.
3.20: The problem with Nursery events which are contested with no juvenile winners involved is that to a fashion, the handicapper is 'guessing', given that two-year-olds are not 'knocked about' when a chance of victory has passed them by. In many such races, jockeys 'down tools' whereby the form lines cannot be taken too literally. Richard Fahey has contested the race twice, saddling gold and silver medallists to date whereby the chance of SPRINGFORTH is respected, whilst THE NAZCA LINES might offer most resistance at the business end of the contest ahead of HOPE AGAINST HOPE.
Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include one 6/5 winner.
3.50: Six of the last eight winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1, including the 20/1 gold medallist in 2013 who was one of three horses which ‘qualified‘ via the handicap trends. Eight of the ten declarations have been made from the 'superior' sector of the handicap this time around, the pick of which should prove to be MUROOR, THE LYNCH MAN and NOVINOPHOBIA. MUROOR could prove to be another winner for David O'Meara who has four runners at the track on Wednesday (all trainers are listed below with their number of representatives relating to two of more runners on the card).
Favourite factor: Ten of the fifteen favourites during the last fourteen years have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five winners. The eleven previous winners had been returned at odds of 9/1 or less before the rogue 20/1 winner in 2013 was cheered home by the majority of the layers. Fortunately, the last two (15/8 & 5/2) market leaders prevailed to get the race back on course for investors.
Record of course winners in the fourth race on the Catterick card:
1/1--Baron Bolt (soft)
1/3--Baby Ballerina (good to soft)
4.20: Eight of the last nine winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-1, whilst four-year-olds come to the gig on a five timer. DOMINADA and DEW POND are the two horses in the race which possess ticks in both boxes. The pair are listed in order of overnight preference, especially as DEW POND could slip into the 'inferior' sector of the handicap if the claiming jockey (Rachel Richardson) calls on all five pounds.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last fourteen years, whilst nine market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the fifth contest:
2/3--Dominada (2 x good)
1/14--Jan Smuts (good to firm)
3/12--Shermon McCoy (good to soft/soft/heavy)
4.50: Ten of the last twelve gold medallists were burdened with a minimum weight of 8-13. Taking claiming pilots into account, seven horses fail to pass my handicap requirements whereby I am left with course and distance winners TANAWAR and DR RED EYE to consider, possibly alongside GOADBY and ATREUS.
Favourite factor: Two (100/30** & 4/1**) favourites have obliged via thirteen renewals to date during which time, seven of the fifteen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions. Nine of the thirteen winners ranged between odds of 13/2 and 28/1.
Record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
2/3--Dr Red Eye (good to soft)
1/7--Goadby (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Catterick card on Wednesday:
4--Richard Fahey (5/20 at Catterick this season - winners at 18/1-6/1-5/1-7/2-2/5*)
4--Marjorie Fife (0/12)
4--Mark Johnston (1/7 - winner at 10/11*)
4--David O'Meara (2/16 - winners at 3/1 & 11/4)
4--John Quinn (2/10 - winners at 7/2 & 2/1)
3--Mick Easterby (3/15 - winners at 14/1-3/1-3/1***)
3--Tim Easterby (0/16)
3--Brian Ellison (1/11 - winner at 11/4*)
3--David Simcock (2/2 - winners at 10/1 & 9/4)
2--Andrew Balding (---)
2--Roy Bowring (0/1)
2--Tom Dascombe (0/1)
2--Scott Dixon (0/7)
2--Nick Kent (---)
2--Phil Kirby (0/13)
2--Kevin Ryan (winner at 6/1)
2--Roger Whitaker (0/3)
2--Noel Wilson (1/3 - winner at 12/1)
+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
77 declared runners
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Bath: £302.80 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 1 unplaced
Lingfield: £4.70 - 6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 placed
Kempton: £61.80 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced
Yarmouth: Meeting abandoned
Catterick overview - Juvenile record of represented trainers in the event:
2.20 - stats relate to this year's two-year-old figures at Catterick:
1/4--Richard Fahey (Forster Square)
1/1--David O'Meara (Eva Gire & Precious Skye)
0/1--Tom Dascombe (Decadent Times)
0/2--Ollie Pears (Tough To Bear)
0/1--Mick Easterby (Joysunny)
1/2--Paul Midgley (Ey Up)
3.20 - stats relate to five year Nursery figures at all tracks:
9/84--John Quinn (The Nazca Lines)
49/404--Mark Johnston (Hope Against Hope)
16/149--Tom Dascombe (Shadow Wing)
61/392--Richard Fahey (Springforth)
11/87--James Given (Yes You)