ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 15
Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last five years:
2015: £301.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
2014: £86.70 (7 favourites: 4 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)
2013: £5,559.90 (8 favourites: 1 winner & 7 unplaced)
2012: £1,326.50 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
2011: £393.10 (7 favourites: No winners - 5 placed - 2 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £1,533.60
34 favourites - 9 winners - 9 placed -16 unplaced
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.30): 12 (Ibn Malik), 7 (Castle Harbour) & 3 (Gifted Master)
Leg 2 (3.05): 2 (Barroche), 5 (Jule In The Crown) & 6 (Kachess)
Leg 3 (3.40): 11 (Lucida), 3 (Usherette) & 4 (Always Smile)
Leg 4 (4.20): 6 (Found) & 5 (Western Hymn)
Leg 5 (5.00): 17 (Spirit Raiser), 30 (Librisa Breeze) & 2 (Basem)
Leg 6 (5.35): 5 (Diploma), 16 (Persuasive) & 2 (Mix And Mixture)
Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.30: 25 of the last 36 available toteplacepot positions (69%) have been claimed by horses in single odds figures, despite the fact that favourites had a poor recent record in the contest before the 2013 market leader prevailed. 10 of the last 13 winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-1 (though the last two gold medallists have humped 9-4 to victory), statistics which bring the likes of IBN MALIK, CASTLE HARBOUR and THIKRIYAAT into the overnight equation. If one of the top four horses in the handicap are to upset the trend again, GIFTED MASTER should prove to be the joker in the pack, especially as Hugo Palmer's raider handles yielding conditions.
Favourite factor: The previous 11 favourites had all been beaten before the 9/2 market leader obliged in 2013. Things seemed to have taken a turn for the better as the two 9/2 joint favourites two years ago filled the forecast positions before last year's 15/8 market leader finished nearer last than first. Nine of the relevant market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.
Record of course winners in the opening contest (Jersey Stakes):
1/2--Gifted Master (good to soft)
1/2--Steady Pace (good to firm)
3.05: ’Team Hannon’ have secured five victories since Fly Baby first scored for Richard (Senior) back in 1981 and Richard (Junior) saddles the aptly named filly STORMY CLOUDS with win an each way claim this time around. Disappointing in a Listed event at York last time out, Richard's Sir Prancalot filly might prefer to return to yielding conditions. That said, more logical winners in the line up include BARROCHE (Clive Cox snared a big winner on Tuesday) and JULE IN THE CROWN (back in amongst fillies here following a tough task in the National Stakes at Sandown). The pair have already locked horns and there should not be too much daylight between them again, whilst my quartet against the field is completed by KACHESS who scored in taking style at Goodwood on debut for Tom Dascombe and connections.
Favourite factor: Six clear favourites and two joint market leaders have won during the last 19 renewals, whilst 14 of the 22 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.
Record of course winners in the 'Queen Mary':
1/1--Camarge (good to firm)
3.40: Four-year-olds have a good record in this event, boasting 24 horses that have claimed toteplacepot positions from the 36 available places to date, statistics which includes ten of the eleven winners. Only one horses opposes vintage representatives this time around whereby the trend can only (seemingly) grow stronger for the 2017 renewal. Upwards and onward by suggesting that LUCIDA could return to winning form in this grade/company from my viewpoint, whilst listing USHERETTE and ALWAYS SMILE as the chief dangers. Five assignments have slipped by since LUCIDA got her head if front and it is high time that the brilliant juvenile of two years back returned to the enclosure reserved for winners. The trio are listed in order of preference at the overnight stage.
Favourite factor: Eight of the fourteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include three winners.
4.20: Four and five-year-olds have won 14 of the 15 renewals of this Group 1 event since the turn of the Millennium and the trend will be extended this year as no other vintage representatives have taken up the challenge. I'm inclined to oppose the favourite A SHIN HIKARI at the odds on offer, believing (rightly or wrongly) that FOUND represents better value, whilst WESTERN HYMN rarely runs a bad race whereby John Gosden's raider looks an each way play at around the 16/1 mark.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last nineteen favourites have won, whilst eight of the last nine market leaders have reached the frame.
5.00: 14 of the last 18 winners of the Royal Hunt Cup have carried weights of 9-1 or less whilst four-year-olds have won six of the last nine contests. Five-year-olds have won three of the other five renewals since 2005. Six of the first eight horses home two years were drawn 22 or higher in a 28 strong field, whilst the other two places were filled by runners emerging from stall numbers 14 & 16. Last year's win and placed runners ran from stalls 11-19-10-21 in a 30 strong field. Putting the stats and facts together, a short list of SPIRIT RAISER (22/30), DONNCHA (31) and LIBRISA BREEZE (26) emerges, from a toteplacepot perspective at the very least. The overnight reserve nominations are awarded to BASEM (30) and last year's winner GM HOPKINS (18), the class acts in the field.
Favourite factor: Five of the last 22 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions (one winner--seven years ago).
Record of course winners in the Royal Hunt Cup:
2/3--GM Hopkins (Good to firm & good to soft)
1/9--Belgian Bill (good to firm)
5.35: 11 of the last 17 winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less which effectively rules out the top four fillies in the Listed Sandringham Handicap if you take the weight statistics seriously. That said, I am a little reluctant to put a line through the chance of MIX AND MIXTURE at the overnight stage, especially as Chris Wall has his team in wonderful order. Horses to consider from the 'superior' sector of the handicap include DIPLOMA, PERSUASIVE and CZABO.
Favourite factor: Four clear, one joint and one co favourite have obliged of late, whilst 15 of the 23 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Royal Ascot card on Wednesday:
8--John Gosden (28/164 at Ascot during the last five years - before Tuesday's sport was contested)
6--Mick Channon (9/135)
6--Saeed Bin Suroor (17/115)
5--Richard Hannon (15/176)
4--Sir Michael Stoute (17/119)
3--Charlie Appleby (8/72)
3--Andrew Balding (11/165)
3--Tom Dascombe (3/43)
3--Richard Fahey (6/129)
3--Mick Halford (1/8)
3--W McCreery (0/2)
3--David Simcock (5/69)
3--Roger Varian 15/88)
2--George Baker (3/44)
2--Jim Bolger (2/22)
2--Owen Burrows (0/1)
2--Clive Cox (6/97)
2--Keith Dalgleish (1/14)
2--James Fanshawe (5/44)
2--William Haggas (13/145)
2--Charlie Hills (6/109)
2--Mark Johnston (22/230)
2--Brian Meehan 6/89)
2--Aidan O'Brien (14/106)
2--John Ryan (1/20)
+ 40 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
117 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chelmsford: £241.70 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Hamilton: £78.60 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
John David Riches secured a 231/1 double at Hamilton last year - 1 runner on Wednesday
Richard Fahey claimed a 26/1 double at Hamilton last year - 3 runners this time around
Ripon: £28.10 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)
Uttoxeter: 187.40 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Juvenile race on Wednesday at Royal Ascot (Queen Mary Stakes - 3.05)
Represented trainers who have saddled winners during the last five years:
Aidan O'Brien (5/1) - Roly Poly
Wesley A Ward (7/2*) - Lady Aurelia