ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 21
Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last six years:
2016: £165.00 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
2015: £301.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
2014: £86.70 (7 favourites: 4 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)
2013: £5,559.90 (8 favourites: 1 winner & 7 unplaced)
2012: £1,326.50 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
2011: £393.10 (7 favourites: No winners - 5 placed - 2 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £1,305.48
40 favourites - 12 winners - 9 placed - 19 unplaced
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.30): 20 (Winning Ways), 6 (Dream Castle), 16 (Taamol) & 12 (Sir Prancealot)
Leg 2 (3.05): 8 (Happy Like A Fool) & 6 (Formidable Kit)
Leg 3 (3.40): 10 (Gemah), 7 (Laugh Aloud) & 12 (Smart Call)
Leg 4 (4.20): 3 (Jack Hobbs) & 2 (Highland Reel)
Leg 5 (5.00): 21 (Fastnet Tempest), 20 (Zhui Feng), 1 (Tabarrak) & 23 (Abe Lincoln)
Leg 6 (5.35): 21 (Queen Of Time) & 22 (Cheval Blanche)
Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.30: 27 of the last 39 available toteplacepot positions (69%) have been claimed by horses in single odds figures, despite the fact that favourites had a poor recent record in the contest before the 2013 market leader prevailed. 10 of the last 14 winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-1, though the last three results have bucked that trend. I have left the weight trend in place for your records, even though they do not apply this year as all 20 runners are set to carry 9-1. Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that WINNING WAYS (the only course winner in the field – Jeremy Noseda’s last two runners have won), DREAM CASTLE (Saeed Bin Suroor went close with his only runner yesterday) and TAAMOL (Sir Michael Stoute has won this race five times) should all figure prominently, albeit the latter named raider has yet to prove himself on this type of ground. Two course records were created yesterday alongside another as far as juveniles were concerned. If you want play a complete outsider, there will be worse 40/1 chances on the day the than SIR DANCEALOT from my viewpoint. David Elsworth has saddled two big priced winners of this race before and there was talk of David’s inmate contesting the Racing Post Trophy at one stage last year. I have not given up on SIR DANCEALOT yet and his odds today could prove to be an insult to the three time juvenile winner.
Favourite factor: The previous 11 favourites had all been beaten before the 9/2 market leader obliged in 2013. Things seemed to have taken a turn for the better as the two 9/2 joint favourites three years ago filled the forecast positions before results returned to negative type in each of the last two years. Nine of the relevant market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.
Record of course winners in the opening contest (Jersey Stakes):
1/1—Winning Ways (good to firm)
3.05: Lady Aurelia burned up the track to win well yesterday having scorched home in this event twelve months ago. Wesley Ward seeks a hat trick in the race with HAPPY LIKE A FOOL, though cramped odds suggest she is only a Placepot option in such a big field. TREASURING could prove to be the pick of the Irish contingent with Ger Lyons having saddled a winner of this event in the past, whilst others to consider include MRS GALLAGHER (Silvestre De Sousa is an eye catching booking) and FORMIDABLE KIT whose mum won this when completing a hat trick as a juvenile five years ago. There was plenty to like about Tom Dascombe’s Invincible Spirit filly when winning well on debut at Newmarket.
Favourite factor: Seven clear favourites and two joint market leaders have won during the last 20 renewals, whilst 15 of the 23 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.
Record of course winners in the 'Queen Mary':
1/1—Mrs Gallagher (good to firm)
3.40: Four-year-olds have a good record in this event, boasting 27 horses that have claimed toteplacepot positions from the 39 available places to date, statistics which includes eleven of the thirteen winners. Home trained horses have won nine of the 13 renewals thus far, with French and Irish runners evenly splitting the other four contests. French raider QEMAH sets the standard via her Coronation Stakes victory here at Ascot last season, though ground conditions are new to her whereby others are certainly under consideration in the contest. LAUGH ALOUD (John Gosden seeks his third win in the race) and SMART CALL (Sir Michael has saddled four previous winners) look sure to figure prominently. The trio are listed in marginal order of preference at the time of writing. Last year’s heroine USHERETTE completes my short list though as a self-confessed ‘anorak’, I have to adhere to the trends by supporting the four-year-olds.
Favourite factor: Nine of the fifteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include four winners.
Record of course winners in the 'Duke of Cambridge':
2/3—Dawn Of Hope (2 x good to soft)
1/1—Qemah (good to soft)
4.20: Four and five-year-olds have won 15 of the 16 renewals of this Group 1 event since the turn of the Millennium and the trend will be extended this year as no other vintage representatives have taken up the challenge. I suggested last year that was worth taking on the 8/15 favourite and so it proved, though I wish that I was as positive in making a selection this time around. HIGHLAND REEL seems to be the most underrated of Aidan O’Brien’s recent consistent winners with media types seeming to find reasons to oppose the five-year-old on a regular basis. Cynics might have good reason this time around however with JACK HOBBS having been declared, this pair seemingly having the edge over ULYSSES, though four-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals. Aside from Placepot interest, this is a race to watch from my viewpoint without getting financially involved.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last 20 favourites have won, whilst eight of the last ten market leaders have reached the frame.
Record of course winners in the feature race on the card:
1/2—Highland Reel (good to firm)
5.00: 14 of the last 19 winners of the Royal Hunt Cup have carried weights of 9-1 or less whilst four-year-olds have won seven of the last ten contests. Five-year-olds have won three of the other five renewals since 2005. Six of the first eight horses home three years were drawn 22 or higher in a 28 strong field on fast ground, whilst the other two places were filled by runners emerging from stall numbers 14 & 16. Putting the stats and facts together, a ‘short list’ of FASTNET TEMPEST (14/30), ZHUI FENG (26) and TABARRAK (30) emerges, from a toteplacepot perspective at the very least. The reserve nominations at the time of writing are awarded to ABE LINCOLN (31) and BLAIR HOUSE (22)
Favourite factor: Five of the last 23 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions (one winner--eight years ago).
Record of course winners in the Royal Hunt Cup:
2/3--GM Hopkins (Good to firm & good to soft)
1/9--Belgian Bill (good to firm)
Record of course winners in the Royal Hunt Cup:
2/2—Tabarrak (2 x good to firm)
2/6—Gm Hopkins (good to firm & good to soft)
1/3—Early Morning (good to firm)
1/9—Belgian Bill (good to firm)
1/2—Fastnet Tempest (good to firm)
Draw statistics for the last ten renewals of the race (most recent result listed first) + SP details:
4-26-20-10 (28 ran-soft) – 10/1-8/1-14/1-20/1
11-19-10-21 (30 ran-good to soft) – 8/1-9/1-16/1-25/1
33-14-23-29 (28 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-14/1-33/1-14/1
6-2-10-7 (28 ran-good to firm) – 33/1-40/1-50/1-25/1
33-18-21-13 (30 ran-good) – 16/1-33/1-50/1-66/1
24-30-25-14 (28 ran-good) – 12/1-7/1*-20/1-33/1
11-12-2-5 (29 ran-good to firm) – 28/1-12/1-12/1-12/1
33-29-30-13 (25 ran-good to firm) – 4/1*-25/1-9/1-16/1
27-30-26-25 (29 ran-good to firm) – 25/1-10/1-25/1-33/1
17-12-27-1 (26 ran-good to firm) – 9/1-16/1-50/1-17/2
The average priced winner during this study period: 12/1
Average priced placed horse: 18/1
Horses drawn 1-15: 4 winners – 14 placed
Horses drawn 16+: 6 winners – 16 placed
If you fancy playing the forecast/Tricast wagers, it might prove best to perm high numbered horses looking at recent results, irrespective of the form lines!
On good to firm ground in 2009 & 2008 respectively, these odds were realised:
Exacta forecasts: 159/1 & 303/1. In 2009, the Tricast paid 366/1 despite the favourite winning, whilst the Trifecta in 2008 paid 6,119/1
5.35: 12 of the last 18 winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less which effectively rules out the top five fillies in the Listed Sandringham Handicap if you take the weight statistics seriously. That said, I am a little reluctant to put a line through the chance of GRECIAN LIGHT at the overnight stage, especially as Charlie Appleby continues to have his horses in fine form, as ever was the case. Each way types to consider from the 'superior' sector of the handicap include CHEVAL BLANCHE, TISBUTADREAM and QUEEN OF TIME. The chance for Gymnaste is there for all to see though value for money might have disappeared by the time you read this column.
Favourite factor: Five clear, one joint and one co favourite have obliged of late, whilst 16 of the 24 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Record of course winners in the Sandringham Handicap:
1/1—Tisbutadream (good to firm)
1/1—Prosper (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (three or more) on the Royal Ascot card on Wednesday followed by their ratios this week at the meeting:
13 runners—John Gosden (No runners thus far)
6—Aidan O’Brien (0/9)
5—Richard Fahey (1/6)
5—Mark Johnston (0/1)
5—Sir Michael Stoute (No runners thus far)
4—Charlie Appleby (1/4)
4—Mick Channon (No runners thus far)
4—William Haggas (0/4)
3—David Elsworth (No runners thus far)
3—Richard Hannon (1/6)
3—Jeremy Noseda (No runners thus far)
3—Saeed Bin Suroor (0/1)
3—Roger Varian (0/2)
123 runners in total
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chelmsford: £111.40 (7 favourites - No winners - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)
Hamilton: £47.10 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Ripon: £97.20 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Uttoxeter: 70.10 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)