SALISBURY – JUNE 22
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £188.60 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury:
Leg 1 (2.10): 6 (Geneva Convention), 10 (Sea Fox) & 11 (Sir Plato)
Leg 2 (2.40): 2 (Keep It Dark), 1 (Silverrica) & 6 (New Rich)
Leg 3 (3.10): 6 (Mistime) & 4 (Groupie)
Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Master Blueyes) & 1 (Mainstream)
Leg 5 (4.20): 3 (Dell Arca) & 9 (Opera Lad)
Leg 6 (4.50): 1 (Gratzie), 3 (Sinfonietta) & 5 (Dance Of Fire)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: ’Team Hannon’ has saddled six gold and five silver medallists in this juvenile event to date, though the last four stable representatives have finished down the field of late. The yard had two runners in the race three years ago when snaring the forecast however, albeit most punters were ‘on the wrong one’ as a 6/1 chance got the better of one of the 9/4 joint favourites close home. Richard saddles two horses in the race on this occasion, and the chances of both BUSKIN RIVER and GENEVA CONVENTION are respected accordingly. I homed in on a supposed 14/1 chance (according to the trade press) at Windsor in a two-year-old race which eventually won at 7/4 on Monday, albeit a few non runners were involved. SIR PLATO will not be backed off the board in the same way but all the same, the 33/1 quote on the same website as I write is a potential insult to the Sir Prancealot raider from my viewpoint. SEA FOX did little wrong first time up and looks a threat, as does GALACTIC PRINCE to a fashion, albeit a distance of ground will be needed for Andrew Balding's raider sooner rather than later.
Favourite factor: 11 of the 17 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date (six winners), statistics which ignore the 15/8 favourite in 2012 which was withdrawn before a new market could be formed. Out of interest, the second favourite won the race at odds of 11/4.
2.40: I like the idea of ‘Senior’s Sprint’ events, though whether such races should be open to horses under eight years of age is open to debate from my viewpoint. That said, we would not have a race this year in that instance as the oldest entry is, yes you guessed it, eight years of age! I know as an owner (in my dreams) that I would not refer to a six-year-old as being a ‘senior’ racehorse. Trainers might have latched on to similar thoughts now, as no horse aged in double figures have been entered for the third year in succession. Seven-year-olds have won five of the eight contests to date, though only KEEP IS DARK represents the vintage on this occasion. The two six-year-olds are feared most, namely SILVERRICA and NEW RICH.
Favourite factor: Five of the ten favourites have snared toteplacepot positions via eight renewals to date, statistics which include three (7/2, 3/1 and 5/2) winners.
3.10: The terms and conditions of this Class 3 juvenile event greatly favour MISTIME according to yours truly, with Mark Johnston's Acclamation raider looking something of a snip off 8-3. Mark's rival Richard Hannon (particularly in the juvenile sector) saddles GROUPIE and the pair look to have the hold over their fellow entries here, with Mick Channon's pair following on behind, possibly at a respectable distance. Don't forget to look down to the foot of the column for two-year-old facts and figures.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won to date, whilst eight market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process. 11 of the 14 winners won at 4/1 or less, with 13/2-10/1-7/1 chances snaring the other three contests.
3.45: Nine of the 15 winners of the ’Bibury Cup’ since the turn of the Millennium have carried weights of 9-1 or more, stats which include six of the last nine gold medallists. It took the subsequent St Leger winner Simple Verse to reverse that trend last year, though I expect the race to revert to type this time around. MASTER BLUEYES might not be a St Leger winner in the making but for all that, Alan King's raider is a fast improving three-year-old and no mistake. MAINSTREAM is nominated as the main threat unless more rain hits the Newbury area on Wednesday which would let REX BELL in with another squeak.
Favourite factor: 11 of the last 19 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners. Successful favourites were only conspicuous by their absence during the previous 11 years before the 9/4** market leader obliged two years ago. It was back to normal last year when the 7/4 market leader finished nearer last than first.
4.20: Let's hope that the majority of runners stand their ground this time around as opposed to two years ago when seven of the eleven overnight declarations abandoned ship for one reason or another! The last nine winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-4 or less which goes against the chances of Touch The Sky and Agent Gibbs. That still leaves nine runners to assess though if DELL ARCA comes into the race fit and well, the other eight contenders might be battling for place money. David Pipe's representative has certainly run two fine races in defeat in competitive events at Sandown and Haydock of late over timber. Ryan Moore takes the ride and David's seven-year-old could have a decent season on the level is starting off on the right hoof in this grade/company. OPERA LAD is the forecast nomination if things go to plan.
Favourite factor: Seven of the eleven favourites (via ten renewals) to date have claimed toteplacepot positions (four winners).
4.50: Five-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals of this contest whilst nine of the last eleven winners carried a minimum burden of 9-5. GRATZIE is the only player with ticks in both boxes in the last leg of our favourite wager, though with four-year-olds having secured four of the last five renewals, the chances of SINFONIETTA and DANCE OF FIRE are respected. I would not be interested in any of the 6/4 (trade press quote - or anything like it) about Next Stage here, with all seventeen runners of Saeed Bin Suroor beaten at Royal Ascot, three of which started at market leaders.
Favourite factor: Five of the last nine favourites (of one sort or another) have obliged.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Salisbury card on Wednesday:
7--Andrew Balding (5/19 at Salisbury this season - winners at 6/1-4/1-7/2-11/4*-2/1*)
6--Richard Hannon (2/27 - winners at 4/6* & 1/3*)
4--Mick Channon (1/6 - winner at 7/1)
4--William Knight (0/2)
4--Rod Millman (1/12 - winner at 9/4)
4--Amanda Perrett (0/1)
3--Jim Boyle (1/2 - winner at 16/1)
3--John O'Shea (0/3)
2--David Elsworth (0/4)
2--David Evans (2/8 - winners at 10/1 & 10/11*)
2--Mark Johnston (---)
2--Alan King (0/1)
2--Marcus Tregoning (0/2)
+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
71 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Carlisle: £981.90 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced
Bath: £63.30 - 6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced
Kempton: £704.90 - 7 favourites - 3 winners & 4 unplaced
Worcester: £48.40 - 7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced
Salisbury trainer overview - Relating to their juvenile events on Wednesday - 5 year records:
25/97--Richard Hannon (Buskin River & Geneva Convention)
1/8--Bill Turner (Crucial Moment)
3/53--Mick Channon (Dewan)
2/9--William Knight (Eolian & Jackhammer)
5/40--Andrew Balding (Galactic Prince & Native Prospect)
4/23--Rod Millman (Hawridge Gory & Sir Plato)
5/45--David Evans (Sea Fox)
2/22--Sylvester Kirk (Star Maker)
1/9--Denis Coakley (Hollow crown)
1/28--Harry Dunlop (Limelight Lady)
No two-year-old runners at Salisbury to date--Richard Hughes (Jumping Jack)
4/23--Rod Millman ((Glory Of Paris)
5/45--David Evans (Black Bubba)
25/97--Richard Hannon (Groupie)
3/53--Mick Channon (Sayesse &Stringbark Creek)
2/9--Mark Johnston (Mistime)