CHELTENHAM – MARCH 15
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £36.40 (6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham:
Leg 1 (1.30): 11 (Neon Wolf), 10 (Messure Des Obeaux) & 1 (Bacardys)
Leg 2 (2.10): 8 (O O Seven), 4 (Bellshill) & 10 (Royal Vacation)
Leg 3 (2.50): 14 (Automated), 19 (Tin Soldier) & 4 (Mister Miyagi)
Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Douvan) & 2 (Fox Norton)
Leg 5 (4.10): 8 (Cause Of Causes) & 4 (Auvergnat)
Leg 6 (4.50): 13 (Dreamcatching), 11 (Diable De Sivola), 20 (Dodgybingo) & 21 (Percy Street)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.30: Willie Mullins has won four of the last nine renewals (Willie saddled the 16/1 runner up five years ago for good measure) whilst six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 10-5 during the last 15 years, statistics which brings NEON WOLF into the mix with an obvious chance. What I like about Harry Fry is that he does not throw lots of darts at the board, preferring to go to the mill with horses with definite claims and NEON WOLF is certainly one of those. Willie also has a live chance with fellow vintage representative BACARDYS, whilst other home contenders with each way chances are MESSIRE DES OBEAUX and WILLOUGHBY COURT.
Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 22 market leaders—7 winners—8 placed—7 unplaced. First three in the betting: 66 runners--13 winners--19 placed--34 unplaced.
Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Neptune':
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/4—Poetic Rhythm (soft)
2.10: Seven-year-olds have run riot in this event in recent times, having won nine of the last ten renewals, having also secured 18 of the last 24 renewals. I could give an each way squeak to the outsider of Nicky Henderson’s three runners, namely O O SEVEN who has always looked a horse of great potential without fully realising much of it to date! Wednesday could be his day in the sunshine, certainly from a Placepot perspective at around the 16/1 mark. More logical winners in the field include BELLSHILL and ROYAL VACATION, with yours truly believing that this could be the race on the card that bookmakers get the first three or four horses in the betting out of the frame.
Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 23 market leaders—6 winners—7 placed—10 unplaced. First three in the betting: 66 runners--10 winners--20 placed--36 unplaced.
Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'RSA Chase':
1/1—Heron Heights (good)
1/3—Might Bite (good)
1/3—O O Seven (good)
1/3—Royal Vacation (soft)
4/9—Whisper (2 x good to soft – good – soft)
1/4—Briery Belle (good)
2.50: 11 of the last 16 winners have carried weights of 11-0 or less which narrows the field down to 15 (from 26 – taking in a jockey claim) if you take the statistics literally, especially as horses with those weights have secured 16 of the total of 23 renewals of the Coral Cup thus far. Six-year-olds have won six of the last 16 renewals and putting the stats and facts together produces an overnight short list of AUTOMATED, TIN SOLDIER, RIVER FROST and SCOIR MEAR. Further up the handicap, MISTER MIYAGI is also offered an each way/toteplacepot chance under what might prove to be fast ground. From the look of things on Tuesday, Cheltenham will be watering by Thursday!
Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 23 market leaders—1 winner—5 placed—17 unplaced. First three in the betting: 75 runners--5 winners--19 placed--51 unplaced.
Cheltenham record of course winners in the Coral Cup:
3/6—Old Guard (good – good to soft – soft)
1/11—The Romford Pele (good)
2/4—Mister Miyagi (good & good to soft)
3/7—Taquin Du Seuil (2 x good & good to soft)
1/1—Peregrine Run (good)
1/3—Hawk High (good)
1/7—Hargam (good to soft)
3.30: 14 of the last 17 winners of the Champion Chase have emerged from the front three in the betting, the other gold medallists having started at 16/1 and 10/1 (twice). The Mullins/Walsh bandwagon moves on with DOUVAN who seemingly only has FOX NORTON to beat. Willie Mullins will be champing at the bit after Tuesday’s disappointing day but as has long since been the case at Prestbury Park in March, no trainer has the right to expect to saddle winners for fun.
Favourite factor: Fate of the favourites: 22 market leaders—7 winners—5 placed—10 unplaced. First three in the betting: 65 runners: 16 winners--21 placed--28 unplaced.
Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Queen Mother':
2/2—Douvan (2 x good to soft)
3/5—Fox Norton (2 x good & soft)
3/6—Garde La Victoire (good – good to soft – soft)
4.10: The unique cross country event was the first race to be added to the fixture in order to create a fourth day of the meeting back in 2005. The race has been won by an Irish trainer in 10 of the 12 years to date, dominated by Enda Bolger who has saddled four winners and eight placed horses. The pick of Enda’s four horses might prove to be AUVERGNAT over CANTLOW, certainly from a value for money perspective. That said, CAUSE OF CAUSES represents Gordon Elliott who enjoyed a gem of an opening day of the meeting. Few would deny a victory for ANY CURRENCY who was disqualified last year, having finished second in each of the previous last two renewals.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won three of the 12 contests to date (eight of the other ten market leaders finished out of the frame), whilst nine gold medallists emerged from the front three in the betting.
Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Cross Country':
2/19—Any Currency (2 x good to soft)
1/10—Bless The Wings (good to soft)
1/8—Cantlow (good to firm)
2/6—Cause Of Causes (good & good to soft)
1/3—First Lieutenant (good)
1/7—Sausalito Sunrise (good to soft)
2/13—Third Intention (2 x good)
4.50: An extremely difficult toteplacepot finale in all honesty. I’m not going to bury you in waffle (other than the fact that the last eight winners have carried 11-2 or less); suffice to suggest that I am banking on DREAMCATCHING, DIABLE DE SIVOLA, PERCY STREET and DODGYBINGO to see if we can secure the toteplacepot dividend, hoping we are live going into the sixth and final leg of our favourite wager. I have included some speculative types, hoping to land a big dividend!
Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites have finished in the frame since the last favourite prevailed back in 2010. Four of the last five gold medallists were returned at 40/1--33/1--25/1--25/1!
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Cheltenham card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season:
14 runners—Willie Mullins
3—Henry De Bromhead
2—Mrs John Harrington
2—J P O’Brien
+ 34 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
124 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Southwell: £106.50 – 4 winners & 2 unplaced
Huntingdon was abandoned last year
There was no meeting at Newcastle as A/W racing did not begin at Gosforth Park until May 2016