WARWICK – MARCH 22
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £43.80 (8 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Warwick:
Leg 1 (2.20): 5 (Robbin ‘Hannon) & 4 (Oscars boss)
Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Multiculture) & 6 (Jupiter’s Gift)
Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Towering), 2 (Krackatoa King) & 3 (Timon’s Tara)
Leg 4 (3.50): 5 (That’s Gonna Sting), 4 (Braw Angus) & 8 (The Model County)
Leg 5 (4.20): 6 (Lady Beaufort), 8 (Llantara) & 5 (One Big Love)
Leg 6 (4.50): 5 (Dontminddboys) & 7 (Veauce De Sivola)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.20: Six-year-olds have won eight of the eleven renewals to date with five-year-olds securing the other three contests thus far. The lone vintage raider scored two years ago before a short priced (2/5) market leader kept the ball rolling twelve months ago. ROBBIN ‘HANNON appears to be the six-year-old to be with this time around, whilst OSCARS BOSS is preferred to Fortified Bay as the main threat. The latter named Alan King inmate represents a stable which is searching for winners at the time of writing and though several house-mates were beaten in hot races at the Cheltenham Festival one fact is impossible to ignore, in that Alan has only saddled one of his last thirty odd runners to winning effect. I’m not saying that Fortified Bay cannot win, it’s just that I would rather look elsewhere until the tide turns.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won thus far, though three of the other four market leaders finished out of the frame.
2.50: Philip Hobbs (MULTICILUTURE) saddled the winner of this event with a ‘hot pot’ and Philip’s progressive Mount Nelson raider will be sent off as an even warmer favourite in this grade/company. Unlike Alan King (in terms of the comment in the opening event), Philip has saddled a couple of winners since Defi Du Seuil reduced the trainer to joyful tears on Friday at Prestbury Park and another winner is one the cards here and no mistake. JUPITER’S GIFT is the forecast call if you want to play the race that way.
Favourite factor: The eleven favourites to have run date (the market leader was withdrawn at the start five years ago) have snared seven gold and three silver medals, whilst eight of the last ten winners were returned at odds of 9/4 or less.
3.20: There is a school of thought that this ‘win only’ event is exactly what this card needs given that there is a strong possibility that far too many Placepot units will have made it through to this third contest. Whichever way the dice fall, at least 60% of the tickets will go up in smoke here, creating the possibility that the eventual dividend is worth winning. As for the three relevant entries, my permutation will include all three runners, hoping that the horse with the least number of unites prevails. For the record, my marginal order of preference is TOWERING, KRACKATOA KING and TIMON’S TARA, though not strongly enough to split the ‘full perm’.
Favourite factor: Both of last year’s 7/2 joint favourites finished out with the washing.
3.50: Regular readers will know my stance relating to handicap hurdle events beyond the minimum trip which have the worst record for favourites in any sector of the sport under both codes. I will offer a tentative and speculative trio against the other five contenders accordingly, namely THAT’S GONNA STING, BRAW ANGUS and THE MODEL COUNTY, the only course winner in the field.
Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far having gained a gold medal and two of the silver variety.
Record of the course winner in the fourth race:
1/1—The Model County (soft)
4.20: Six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 8-2 via just eleven contests to date whereby LADY BEAUFORT and LLANTARA are expected to get us safely through to the last leg of our favourite wager, if we possess live units going into this penultimate leg. The pair is listed in order of preference, whilst ONE BIG LOVE nominated as a third option.
Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven market leaders (all winners of their respective races) have secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:
1/1—Sparkling River (soft)
4.50: Eight-year-olds grab the headlines in this event as vintage representatives have snared four of the last eleven contests (including the 25/1 gold medallist in 2013), whilst also securing the silver medal in two of the last six years and a bronze in each of the last two renewals. Six of the last nine winners have carried weights of 11-3 or more and putting the stats and facts together suggests that DONTMINDDBOYS and VEAUCE DE SIVOLA should figure prominently.
Favourite factor: Twelve of the last fifteen jollies have been beaten (includes five pairs of joint favourites), albeit five market leaders have finished in the money during the period (two winners).
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
2/5—Emma Soda (2 x soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Warwick card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
3—Kim Bailey (2/11 – Profit of 3 points)
3—Robbin Dickin (1/18 – loss of 9 points)
2—Alexandra Dunn (0/4)
2—Claire Dyson (0/4)
2—Philip Hobbs (0/15)
2—Alan King (5/23 – loss of 8 points)
2—Kerry Lee (0/14)
2—Seamus Mullins (1/10 (Profit of 1 point)
2—Katy Price (0/1)
2—Dan Skelton (5/33 - loss of 17 points)
2—Tom Symonds (1/9 – loss of 7 points)
+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
47 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Haydock: £20.00 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced
Kempton: £33.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
There is no corresponding meeting relating to Newcastle