CATTERICK – MARCH 8
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £78.70 (6 favourites – 4 winners - & 2 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Catterick:
Leg 1 (2.20): 4 (Beaumont’s Party), 6 (Absolute) & 1 (Stilo Blue Native)
Leg 2 (2.50): 5 (Nomoreblackjack) & 3 (Bonnets Vino)
Leg 3 (3.20): 2 (All My Love) & 1 (Golden Vision)
Leg 4 (3.50): 3 (Bandol), 1 (Minella Suite) & 4 (Sky Full Of Stars)
Leg 5 (4.20): 4 (Turtle Cask), 2 (Snapping Turtle) & 3 (Bankhall)
Leg 6 (4.50): 3 (Knocklong) & 1 (Flash Garden)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.20: Sue Smith boasts great stats at Catterick this season (see stats below) and though the form figures of ABSOLUTE hardly set the pulse racing even in this low grade event, Sue’s six-year-old is not entirely ruled out of the equation. Connections arguably have most to fear from the lies of BEAUMONT’S PARTY and STILO BLUE NATIVE.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural Brian Ellis trained 4/6 favourite duly obliged.
2.50: NOMOREBLACKJACK is Sue Smith’s second (of three) runners at the meeting, though punters might struggle to obtain the 4/6 quote in the trade press. There is every chance that the selection could be sent off around the 1/2 mark and if you don’t believe that to be too much of a differential, the comparison is a 10/1 chance being backed down to around 11/2. Four of Pam Sly’s last five runners have finished second whereby her luck has got to start changing soon. That said, five of Pam’s previous ten winners won, securing 60 points of level stake profits into the bargain. Pam saddles BONNETS VINO on this occasion.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 6/4 favourite duly obliged before last year’s 11/10 market leader could only finish second (missing out on a Placepot position) in a four runner ‘win only’ contest.
Record of course winners in the second race:
1/2—Nine Altars (good to soft)
1/2—Bonnets Vino (good)
3.20: Five-year-olds have secured four of the last six renewals, claiming six of the eleven available Placepot positions via 31% of the total number of runners. I successfully took on a 2/11 favourite in the race last year because of the facts and figures, though the relevant pair at the head of the market twelve months on should extend the trend between them, namely ALL MY LOVE and GOLDEN VISION.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders.
3.50: Last year’s lone 10/1 six-year-old representative was unable to complete the treble on behalf of the vintage, though that might not be the case twelve months on as MINELLA SUITE looks to hold definite claims, notwithstanding the other six-year-old in the race (Paddling) have been offered the green light to run. That said, the declarations of hat trick seeker BANDOL and recent heavy ground winner SKY FULL OF STARS will make this a difficult race to win.
Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites to date (via three renewals) have claimed Placepot positions having won the relevant events.
4.20: As you might have guessed, mud loving Turtle Island is the sire of both SNAPPING TURTLE and TURTLE CASK and there should be enough moisture in the ground to ensure that this pair figure prominently, enough to contest Placepot positions at the very least. BANKHALL is offered up as the alternative win and place call.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/11 market leaders prevailed by a six length margin.
Record of course winners in the fifth event on the card:
1/3—Snapping Turtle (good to soft)
1/5—Turtle Cask (soft)
1/e—Brae On (good to soft)
4.50: The 25/1 winner Soleil D'Avril was one of only three horses I mentioned in my analysis two years ago, though it’s difficult to pinpoint that type of outsider in this renewal. Unusually in Hunter Chase events, horses aged in single figures have won eleven of the last twelve renewals, though there is a clue in the title of the race which provides the reason. This is a 'Novice' Hunter Chase which makes all the difference in the world whereby the trend should be extended via the likes of KNOCKLONG (winner of 7/8 point to point events) and FLASH GARDEN, who gets the marginal secondary vote over Comedinewithme.
Favourite factor: Just three (10/11, 15/8 & 11/4) market leaders have prevailed of late alongside gold medallists which were returned at 50/1-25/1-20/1-18/1-16/1. The last five market leaders have finished in the frame.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Catterick card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Micky Hammond (2/26 – loss of 11 points)
3—Sue Smith (6/16 – Profit of 10 points)
2—Gillian Boanas (0/1)
2—Tristan Davisdon (0/2)
2—Rose Dobbin (0/5)
2—James Ewart (1/5 – Profit of 10 points)
2—Joanne Foster (0/6)
2—Chris Grant (0/8)
2—Pam Sly (2/4 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Mike Sowersby (0/7)
39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
56 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Fontwell was abandoned
Kempton: £34.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Lingfield: £4,187.40 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 5 unplaced