Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday May 10

CHESTER – MAY 10 

 

Six year Placepot details on day one of the Chester May meeting:

2016: £31.30 (8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £16.30 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

2014: £68.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2013: £1,492.00 (8 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 6 unplaced)

2012: £110.00 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £69.60 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average dividend: £297.48 - 44 favourites - 12 winners - 12 placed - 20 unplaced

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 7 (Emilia James), 1 (Big Time Maybe) & 2 (Black Orange)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Alluringly) & 4 (Enable)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Sir Maximillian), 8 (El Astronaute) & 5 (Taexali)

Leg 4 (3.35): 15 (Who Dares Wins), 12 (Golden Spear), 17 (Blakeney Point) & 14 (The Cashel Man)

Leg 5 (4.05): 5 (Stradivarius) & 1 (Al Zaman)

Leg 6 (4.35): 5 (Mutarabby) & 10 (Meccabah)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10 ('Lily Agnes'): Potentially, this is the second largest field for the ‘Lily Agnes’ during the last nineteen years whereby the draw (heavily favouring low numbers) could well play an important role.  That said (explaining why bookmakers make vast profits year on year) the 2013 result of horses drawn 8-9-10 filling the frame in a twelve runner field defied belief at the time.  The following year, the winner was boxed 10/10 so don’t get too carried away with what media ‘experts’ will be telling you today!  Indeed, I can reveal that one of the ‘rags’ Sir Walter has been the subject of a little support overnight despite the fact that Eric Alston’s newcomer is housed 11/11.  EMILIA JAMES looks a far likelier winner however, with stall nine hopefully ensuring that a decent price emerges for Mark Johnston’s impressive Beverley winner.  She only beat rivals of her won gender however whereby Mark’s Poet’s Voice filly can only be considered as a tentative selection.  Others for the Placepot mix include BLACK ORANGE (value for money as an each way option) and BIG TIME MAYBE who hails from Tom Dascombe’s yard who will have targeted this race from any number of potential runners.

Favourite factor: 14 of the 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (eight winners) during the last nineteen years.  Seventeen of the last nineteen winners have scored at 9/1 or less.

Draw factor' (five furlongs):

5-4 (7 ran-good to soft)

2-1-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

10-9-3 (10 ran-good)

8-9-10 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-2-8 (8 ran-soft)

2-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

5-3 (7 ran--good)

5-7-2 (8 ran--good to firm)

2-5 (6 ran--good)

3-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-2-6 (10 ran-good to soft)

1-2-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

1-7 (7 ran-good)

3-2-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

8-1-2 (9 ran-good to firm)

2-5 (7 ran-good)

5-1-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

2-1 (7 ran-good)

 

2.40 ('Cheshire Oaks'): Aidan O’Brien has won this event five times in the last nine years (not represented four years ago) and with ALLURINGLY having been given the green light this time around, Ryan Moore's mount should take some stopping.  Not all of Aidan’s winners have looked at ease around the twists and turns of the Roodee but that said, most of them have done what was asked of them and it will come as no surprise if the trainer lands a hat trick of victories this time around.  John Gosden saddled runners sparingly at this venue (average of six a year in recent times) whereby his entry ENABLE is respected, especially as she ran well on her seasonal debut at Newbury with this step up in trip likely to suit.

Favourite factor: 16 of the 22 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (ten winners) during the study period.

Draw factor: (twelve furlongs):

6-3-4 (8 ran-good)

2-7-3 (10 ran-good to soft)

2-4-9 (9 ran-good)

7-9-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-2-1 (9 ran-soft)

8-1-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-4 (7 ran--good)

2-6 (7 ran--good to firm)

4-1-2 (9 ran--good)

4-6-11 (11 ran-good to firm)

1-10-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-3 (6 ran-good to soft)

1-2-4 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-7-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

4-1 (5 ran-good to firm)

3-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-4 (5 ran-good)

7-6-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-2-8 (8 ran-good)

 

3.00: Only on four occasions during the last 19 years has a runner emerging from either trap one or stall number two failed to gain a Placepot position in this event. Even though that scenario occurred for the fourth time in 2013, the next stall (three) housed the 12/1 winner.  The haul of just three gold medals in the process is nothing to write home about but the Placepot stat is impressive given that an average of 13 horses have contested the race during the study period. The final stat to offer relates to vintages as five-year-olds lead the four-year-old 4-3 via the last nine contests.  The relevant horses from the inside stalls on this occasion are EL ASTRONAUTE and TAEXALI, with my main fancy SIR MAXIMILIAN boxed next door in trap three.

Favourite factor: 22 of the 23 favourites have been beaten since 1997, whilst 11 market leaders have finished in the frame during the period.

Draw factor: (five furlongs):

3-1-6 (14 ran-good)

4-8-2 (11 ran-good to soft)

4-1-7 (12 ran-good)

3-5-8 (13 ran-good to firm)

2-7-9 (14 ran-soft)

7-9-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-7-5 (13 ran--good)

4-1-6 (12 ran--good to firm)

7-2-8 (14 ran--good)

6-7-4 (13 ran-good)

2-4-8 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-4 (14 ran-good to soft)

4-2-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

1-5-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-1-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

8-2-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

6-4-1 (12 ran-good)

6-1-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

Chester record of course winners in the third event:

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2/4—Sir Maximilan (2 x good)

1/11—Confessional (soft)

1/3—El Astronaute (good to soft)

5/13—Blithe Spirit (all types of ground)

2/8—Powerallied (good & soft)

1/2—Bossipop (good to soft)

2/10—Ballesterods (good & soft)

 

3.35 (Chester Cup): This is one of the few ‘staying’ races on the entire racing calendar that is dependent upon the draw (to a fashion) and we ignore the stall positions at our potential peril.  Low numbers invariably rule the roost as seven of the last ten results (see below) confirm.  Six-year-olds have won this event four times in the last nine years, whilst nine of the last eleven winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-2.  Putting the stats and facts together offers a ‘short list’ of WHO DARES WINS, GOLDEN SPEAR, BLAKENEY POINT and THE CASHEL MAN.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Sir Chauvelin.

Favourite factor: Three of the last eighteen favourites have won the Chester Cup, whilst eight of the twenty two market leaders have reached the frame during the study period.

Draw factor: (eighteen and a half furlongs):

4-15-9-12 (17 ran-good)

11-9-7-3 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-11-2-5 (17 ran-good)

2-7-11-14 (17-good to firm)

13-8-19-4 (16 ran-soft)

1-3-16-19 (17 ran-good to firm)

5-16-6-1 (17 ran--good)

4-8-7-6 (16 ran--good to firm)

13-11-8 (17 ran-good to firm)

1-2-11-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

15-8-11-2 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-18-11-5 (17 ran-good to soft)

2-3-15-4 (16 ran-good to firm)

7-8-6-15 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-4-16-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

4-3-17-5 (18 ran-good)

13-16-9-8 (16 ran-good to firm)

9-10-3-17 (18 ran-good)

Chester record of course winners in the Chester Cup:

1/2—Suegioo (good)

1/2—Sea Of Heaven (soft)

1/1—Who Dares Wins (good)

1/1—Blakeney Point (good to soft)

 

4.05: Ten different trainers have saddled the winner of this race in recent years, though the likes of STRADIVARIUS and AL ZAMAN look to have the race between them whereby the negative trainer factor is not really an issue.  TEODORO is the other potential winner in the field rom my viewpoint, though only because of the relevant concession of weight.

Favourite factor: Two favourites (3/1 & 5/2) have won during the last decade, whilst eight gold medallists have scored at a top price of 7/1 during the study period.

Draw factor: (Twelve furlongs): With just eight runners going to post, this event should not be affected by the draw, especially as the horses mentioned in despatches should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.

 

4.55: Well fancied runners have (aside from the 2015 result) performed well in the Placepot finale and we appear to have a two horse race to consider, with MUTARABBY and MECCABAH having been declared.  That said, Charlie Hills sends just one runner to the track today whereby the chance of Never Surrender is respected albeit after six outings, Jamie Spencer’s mount is pretty exposed now.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 17 winners have scored at 3/1 or less. Favourites have won nine of the last twelve contests, whilst 16 of the last 20 jollies have secured Placepot positions.  Those stats include the 1/6 (Aidan O'Brien trained) favourite in 2015, though the market leader could only finished second behind a 10/1 winner!

Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

4-2 (5 ran-good)

3-8 (7 ran-good to soft)

8-1-4 (11 ran-good)

7-11-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

11-7-2 (13 ran-soft)

6-3-8-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

2-8 (7 ran--good)

10-1-7 (11 ran--good to firm)

2-4-5 (9 ran--good)

4-10-1 (11 ran-good)

7-3-8 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-1 (6 ran-good to soft)

3-1-2 (8 ran-good to soft)

6 (4 ran-good to firm)

7-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-5 (6 ran-good to firm)

4-1 (5 ran-good)

2-3-1 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-8-3 (10 ran-good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Chester card on Wednesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

7 runners—Richard Fahey (48/374 – loss of 59 points)

6—Tom Dascombe (28/211 – loss of 65 points)

5—David Evans (8/138 – loss of 42 points)

4—Mark Johnston (34/225 – loss of 69 points)

3—Eric Alston (7/54 – loss of 16 points)

3—Andrew Balding (28/137 – Profit of 18 points)

3—Ralph Beckett (16/52 – loss of 4 points)

2—Roger Charlton (1/5 – loss of 1 point)

2—Keith Dalgleish (3/18 – Profit of 3 points)

2—Tim Easterby (8/81 – loss of 35 points)

2—John Gosden (6/30 – loss of six points)

2—Richard Hannon (9/60 – loss of 11 points)

2—Alan King (5/12 – Profit of 22 points)

2—John Patrick Shanahan (3/14 – Profit of 2 points)

2—Ian Williams (6/45 – Profit of 34 points)

+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

79 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £160.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Kelso: £30.10 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Newton Abbot: £24.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Chelmsford: £25.80 – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

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