Placepot pointers – Wednesday May 11

YORK – MAY 11

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last five years:

2015: £3,142.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £1,860.60 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

2013: £305.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £3,044.20 (6 favourites: No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

2011: £2,943.40 (6 favourites: 1 winner & 5 unplaced)

Average dividend: £2,259.24 - 32 favourites - 8 winners - 4 placed - 20 unplaced

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 10 (Erik The Red), 14 (Nayel) & 1 (Pacify)

Leg 2 (2.40): 4 (George Bowen), 5 (Flaming Spear), 18 (Canyari) & 8 (Highland Acclaim)

Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (Danzeno), 4 (Eastern Impact), 11 (Suedois) & 5 (Goken)

Leg 4 (3.45): 7 (So Di Mar)

Leg 5 (4.20): 18 (Constantino), 9 (Castle Harbour) & 5 (Abernathy)

Leg 6 (4.50): 3 (Hemingway) & 1 (Kananee)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: The first thing you should do on Wednesday is to form a Placepot permutation on the opening day of the three day fixture, given the dividends I have offered above. This is not a case of one dividend 'swelling the average', far from it in fact, as four of the last five returns have been recorded in four figures.  Four-year-olds have won 12 of the last 18 renewals and vintage representatives came to the gig on a seven-timer in 2013 with relevant horses having secured 14 of the previous 19 available toteplacepot positions.  Five and six-year-olds brought the trend to an end these last few years, though four-year-olds have snared seven further medal positions from a toteplacepot perspective (one winner - last year).  The pick of the seven 'junior runners' this time around should prove to be ERIK THE RED (drawn 2/14), NAYEL (4) and PACIFY (9). SPANISH SQUEEZE (14) receives the overnight reserve nomination.  Kevin Ryan has saddled a couple of winners at 25/1 & 3/1 on this opening day of the Dante meeting during the last five years and with ERIK THE RED going close to securing a four timer on his seasonal bow at Haydock a few weeks ago, Shane Gray can get back among the winners at the first time of asking at this high profile meeting.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the twenty one favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, though only three market leaders have won during the study period.

Draw factor (ten and a half furlongs):

18-14-12-5 (18 ran-good)

17-16-8-14 (18 ran-soft)

3-6-11 (13 ran-good to soft)

5-14-6 (14 ran-good)

17-5-1-4 (20 ran-good)

12-4-5 (11 ran-good)

5-3-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

8-10-4 (12 ran-good to firm)

16-8-11-14 (17 ran-good)

5-14-2 (14 ran-good to soft)

11-6-3 (12 ran-soft)

7-5-10 (14 ran-good to soft)

10-4-12 (15 ran-good to firm)

2-7-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

10-1-9-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

1-6-3 (8 ran-firm)

5-8-12 (12 ran-soft)

2-7-1 (13 ran-good)

York record of course winners in the opening event:

1/2--Empress Ali

2.40: Four-year-olds have won six of the last eleven renewals, confirming their recent dominance having secured a 1-2-3 result five years ago via eight representatives in the twenty strong line up.  Ten of the last eleven winners carried a maximum burden of 9-3.  Four horses ‘qualify’ this year via ticks in both boxes according to the trends. Relevant horses (GEORGE BOWEN - drawn 14/19) and (FLAMING SPEAR - 16) will be included in my Placepot permutation, backed up by INTENSE STYLE (2), ahead of five-year-old CANYARI (7) in all probability.  If vintage representatives are to be denies this time around, HIGHLAND ACCLAIM (18 - alongside CANYARI) might prove to be the jokers in the pack.

Favourite factor: 15 of the 25 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, with three favourites prevailing from a win perspective during the study period.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

11-14-4-1 (17 ran-good)

20-5-19-14 (20 ran-soft)

18-3-5 (15 ran-good to soft)

15-6-18-7 (19 ran-good)

8-7-3-14 (20 ran-good to firm)

11-8-17 (13 ran-good to firm)

15-13-17-16 (16 ran-soft)

12-10-9 (15 ran-good to firm)

13-7-12 (13 ran-good)

7-8-9-10 (17 ran-soft)

1-5-15-13 (19 ran-good to soft)

12-10-4 (14 ran-good to soft)

6-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-5-10 (13 ran-good to firm)

6-14-12-7 (20 ran-good to firm)

12-9-16 (15 ran-firm)

2-9-8 (15 ran-soft)

6-11-13 (13 ran-good)

York record of course winners in the second race on the card:

1/2--George Dryden

1/1--Flaming Spear

1/5--Highland Acclaim

3/12--Hoof It

1/4--Hawkeyethenoo

1/6--WSee The Sun

2/17--Bogart

3.15: Four and five-year-olds have claimed 11 of the last 17 renewals, with the older of the two vintages leading 8-3 during the period.  The pick of the two vintages on this occasion might prove to be the trio of five-year-olds, namely DANZENO (drawn 6/12), EASTERN IMPACT (2) and SUEDOIS (9).  Kevin Ryan has secured two of the last nine renewals and the trainer is (interestingly) represented by four-year-old GOKEN (3) this time around.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won this event during the last 18 years, though just three of the other fifteen market leaders additionally claimed toteplacepot positions.  Seven of the last ten winners have scored at 40/1-25/1-25/1-20/1-16/1-12/1-10/1.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

7-12-2 (15 ran-good)

4-2-5 (13 ran-soft)

18-15-4 (17 ran-good to soft)

7-12-3 (13 ran-good)

9-12-8 (14 ran-good)

1-11-6 (12 ran-good)

3-11-6 (16 ran-good to firm)

6-1-7 (17 ran-good to firm)

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4-1-13 (17 ran-good)

2-13-9 (16 ran-good to soft)

9-10-5 (11 ran-soft)

5-14-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

3-12-1 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-4 (12 ran-good to firm)

8-10-4 (14 ran-good to firm)

5-4-9 (10 ran-firm)

8-1-2 (14 ran-soft)

3-5-4 (10 ran-good)

York record of course winners in the third contest:

1/1--Twilight Son

1/3--Mattmu

1/5--Moviesta

3.45 ('Musidora'): John Gosden has won three of the last four renewals when represented and John has offered the green light to his only option at the penultimate stage SO DI MAR.  Beating the colts in the Epsom Derby Trial, SO MI DAR was impressive enough and back among the fillies here, John's DUBAWI representative is the first name on the team sheet and no mistake.  Aidan O'Brien has never saddled the winner of this event, with six beaten horses during the last decade, one of which was sent off at 8/15.  Aidan has declared Best In The World this time around, though I prefer the likes of PROMISING RUN and FIREGLOW as dangers to the strong selection.

Favourite factor: Ten of the last eighteen favourites have reached the frame, statistics which include seven winners.

4.20: Richard Fahey has landed this event three times in the last seven years and CONSTANTINO is the relevant declaration, the Danehill Dancer raider having scored on his second (and last) assignment as a juvenile.  Charlie Appleby has his team in fine form and it's interesting to note that his only runner on the card is his Sandown juvenile scorer ABERNATHY.   If plenty of rain falls between the time of writing and flag fall, JUSTICE LAW could defy top weight bit given that the forecast is for basically dry weather to evolve, CASTLE HARBOUR is preferred.  Yes, John Gosden's Kyllachy colt scored on soft going his only start to date, but an argument could be made that the official assessor has let Frankie Dettori's mount in lightly, especially as John was sweet on his juvenile twelve months ago.  Some rain overnight would probably aid and abet his chance has well however.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have prevailed via just eight contests thus far, though the other three market leaders missed out on toteplacepot positions.

York record of course winners in the fifth race:

1/4--Reputation

1/1--Desert Ruler

4.50: ‘Team Hannon’ have won two of the last five renewals when represented and Logi is the chosen raider on this occasion, though the juvenile record of 'Richard the younger' is worth looking at below in the York 'overview'.  Accordingly, I prefer the chances of HEMINGWAY (Kevin Ryan), KANANEE (despite the six pound penalty) and Mark Johnston's pair COMEDY SCHOOL and MISTIME.

Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve favourites to date have missed out on toteplacepot positions (four winners). The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 14/1 (seven years ago).  The other ten winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

1 (4 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-good to soft)

4-1 (7 ran-soft)

1-5-2 (8 ran-good)

9-1-2 (10 ran-good)

5-3 (5 ran-good to firm)

5-4 (5 ran-good to firm)

2-3 (5 ran-good to firm)

7-2-10 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-1 (7 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (6 ran-soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the York card on Wednesday:

9--Mark Johnston (6/52 at York last season)

8--Kevin Ryan (3/51)

6--Tim Easterby (2/56)

6--Richard Fahey (6/130)

6--Richard Hannon (2/38)

5--Karl Burke (1/21)

4--John Quinn (2/24)

4--David O'Meara (12/86)

3--Michael Appleby (2/17)

2--Declan Carroll (0/7)

2--Mich Channon (0/21)

2--Michael Dods (1/19)

2--Mick Easterby (0/47)

2--Brian Ellison (3/44)

2--David Elsworth (1/11)

2--Jim Goldie (1/14)

2--John Gosden (6/19)

2--Paul Midgley (1/18)

2--Aidan O'Brien (0/12)

2--Jamie Osborne (--)

2--Bryan Smart (0/12)

2--Saeed Bin Suroor (3/20)

+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

102 declared runners

 

General Overview:

Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year: 

Bath: £21.10 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplace)

Perth: £26.50 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced) - Lucinda Russell snared a 42/1 double on the card

New meetings on Wednesday: 

Lingfield (A/W) & Worcester

 

York overview:

Juvenile records of represented trainers at York during the last five years for Wednesday's 4.50 contest:

1/8--Saeed Bin Suroor (Kananee)

4/61--Tim Easterby (Computable)

14/87--Kevin Ryan (Hemingway)

13/157--Richard Fahey (In First Place)

2/36--Richard Hannon (Logi)

1/11--Karl Burke (Medici Banchiere)

3/21--John Quinn (The Nazca Lines)

5/76--Mark Johnston (Comedy School & Mistime)

0/12--Paul Midgley (La Haule Lady)

 

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2 replies
  1. patterss says:

    Great tipping in the first race!

    Thanks once again for the tips a small loss on the day but a winning perm none the less

    • MalBoyle
      MalBoyle says:

      Well played and thanks for taking the time and trouble to write as ever – here’s to even better results on the morrow Sir!

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