Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday May 17

YORK – MAY 17

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last six years:

2016: £32.60 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

2015: £3,142.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £1,860.60 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

2013: £305.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £3,044.20 (6 favourites: No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

2011: £2,943.40 (6 favourites: 1 winner & 5 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,888.13 - 38 favourites - 12 winners - 4 placed - 22 unplaced

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 11 (Repercussion), 4 (Speed Company), 14 (Qassem) & 3 (Shabeeb)

Leg 2 (2.55): 18 (Udontdodou), 20 (Flying Pursuit), 14 (Reputation) & 15 (Shamshon)

Leg 3 (3.30): 8 (Magical Memory) & 3 (Brando)

Leg 4 (4.05): 3 (Shutter Speed)

Leg 5 (4.35): 2 (Chessman), 18 (Sir Reginald Brown) & 1 (Senator)

Leg 6 (5.05): 4 (It Dont Come Easy), 1 (Santry) & 5 (Knockout Blow)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Leading trainer on Day 1 of the Dante meetings during the last six years:

7 winners—John Gosden (13/2, 5/1, 9/2*, 11/4*, 15/8, 4/5* & 4/6*)

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: Apologies are offered for the late analysis this morning which is due to enduring a traumatic day relating to health matters on Tuesday.  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that he first thing you should do on Wednesday is to form a Placepot permutation on the opening day of the three day fixture, given the dividends I have offered above. This is not a case of one dividend 'swelling the average', far from it in fact, as four of the last six returns have been recorded in four figures.  Four-year-olds have won 13 of the last 19 renewals and vintage representatives came to the gig on a seven-timer in 2013 with relevant horses having secured 14 of the previous 19 available toteplacepot positions.

Vintage representatives produced a clean sweep in Placepot terms twelve months ago and the pick of the ten 'junior runners' this time around should prove to be REPERCUSSION (drawn 9/20 – Charlie Fellowes has saddled his last four runners to winning effect), SPEED COMPANY (14), QASSEM (4) and SHABEEB (17).  The four runners are drawn across the width of the track whereby we should have all thigs covered as far as the ‘traps’ are concerned.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the 22 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, though only three market leaders have won during the study period.

Draw factor (ten and a half furlongs):

4-9-2 (13 ran-good)

18-14-12-5 (18 ran-good)

17-16-8-14 (18 ran-soft)

3-6-11 (13 ran-good to soft)

5-14-6 (14 ran-good)

17-5-1-4 (20 ran-good)

12-4-5 (11 ran-good)

5-3-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

8-10-4 (12 ran-good to firm)

16-8-11-14 (17 ran-good)

5-14-2 (14 ran-good to soft)

11-6-3 (12 ran-soft)

7-5-10 (14 ran-good to soft)

10-4-12 (15 ran-good to firm)

2-7-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

10-1-9-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

1-6-3 (8 ran-firm)

5-8-12 (12 ran-soft)

2-7-1 (13 ran-good)

York record of course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Master Carpenter (good)

 

2.55: Four-year-olds have won six of the last twelve renewals, confirming their recent dominance having secured a 1-2-3 result six years ago via eight representatives in the twenty strong line up.  Eleven of the last twelve winners carried a maximum burden of 9-3.  Relevant horses UDONTDODOU (drawn 16/20), FLYING PURSUIT (3) and REPUTATION (6) form my ‘short list’ on this occasion.  If vintage representatives are to be denied this time around, SHAMSHON (11) might prove to be the joker in the pack.

Favourite factor: 15 of the 26 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, with three favourites prevailing from a win perspective during the study period.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

5-9-1-4 (18 ran-good)

11-14-4-1 (17 ran-good)

20-5-19-14 (20 ran-soft)

18-3-5 (15 ran-good to soft)

15-6-18-7 (19 ran-good)

8-7-3-14 (20 ran-good to firm)

11-8-17 (13 ran-good to firm)

15-13-17-16 (16 ran-soft)

12-10-9 (15 ran-good to firm)

13-7-12 (13 ran-good)

7-8-9-10 (17 ran-soft)

1-5-15-13 (19 ran-good to soft)

12-10-4 (14 ran-good to soft)

6-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-5-10 (13 ran-good to firm)

6-14-12-7 (20 ran-good to firm)

12-9-16 (15 ran-firm)

2-9-8 (15 ran-soft)

6-11-13 (13 ran-good)

York record of course winners in the second race on the card:

2/8—Out Do (2 x good)

1/5—Reputation (goof to firm)

1/2—Shamson (good to firm)

 

3.30: Four and five-year-olds have claimed 12 of the last 18 renewals, with the older of the two vintages leading 8-4 during the period.  The pick of the two vintages on this occasion might prove to be last year’s winner MAGICAL MEMORY and BRANDO, who represents Kevin Ryan who has won two of the last ten renewals.  ‘Team Hills’ boast the same recent ratio with MAGICAL MEMORY representing the yard on this occasion.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Suedois.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won this event during the last 19 years, though just three of the other fifteen market leaders additionally claimed toteplacepot positions.  Seven of the last eleven winners have scored at 40/1-25/1-25/1-20/1-16/1-12/1-10/1.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

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4-9-6 (12 ran-good)

7-12-2 (15 ran-good)

4-2-5 (13 ran-soft)

18-15-4 (17 ran-good to soft)

7-12-3 (13 ran-good)

9-12-8 (14 ran-good)

1-11-6 (12 ran-good)

3-11-6 (16 ran-good to firm)

6-1-7 (17 ran-good to firm)

4-1-13 (17 ran-good)

2-13-9 (16 ran-good to soft)

9-10-5 (11 ran-soft)

5-14-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

3-12-1 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-4 (12 ran-good to firm)

8-10-4 (14 ran-good to firm)

5-4-9 (10 ran-firm)

8-1-2 (14 ran-soft)

3-5-4 (10 ran-good)

York record of course winners in the third contest:

1/4—Baccarat (good)

1/2—Magical Memory (good)

2/12—Nameitwhatyoulike (good & good to soft)

1/2—Tasleet (Good to soft)

 

4.05 ('Musidora'): John Gosden has won four of the last five renewals when represented and John has offered the green light to his unbeaten filly SHUTTER SPEED who should win this ‘trial’ with plenty to spare.  An impressive winner of a decent Newbury Conditions event the last day, ‘Frankie’ should only need to do the steering here to score.

Favourite factor: Ten of the last eighteen favourites have reached the frame, statistics which include seven winners.

 

4.35: Richard Fahey has landed this event three times in the last eight years and all three of his entries boast Placepot claims, namely SIR REGINALD BROWN, SENATOR and STARLIGHT ROMANCE.  That said, CHESSMAN demands to be the first name of the team sheet from what we have witnessed to date. John Gosden has stood out as the trainer to follow on the opening day of the meeting in recent years and in Shutter Speed and Chessman, John has a great chance to add to the tally on Wednesday, albeit via just the two runners on the card.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have prevailed via just nine contests thus far, though the other three market leaders missed out on toteplacepot positions.

 

5.05: The Placepot finale is something of a lottery, though IT DON’T COME EASY, SANTRY and KNOCKOUT BLOW should (hopefully) ensure that the latter named words do not prove to be prophetic, eliminating us from sharing the Placepot pool.

Favourite factor: Seven of the thirteen favourites to date have missed out on toteplacepot positions (five winners). The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 14/1 (eight years ago).  The other eleven winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

3-9-6 (9 ran-good)

1 (4 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-good to soft)

4-1 (7 ran-soft)

1-5-2 (8 ran-good)

9-1-2 (10 ran-good)

5-3 (5 ran-good to firm)

5-4 (5 ran-good to firm)

2-3 (5 ran-good to firm)

7-2-10 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-1 (7 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (6 ran-soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the York card on Wednesday – followed by last year’s ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

10 runners—David O’Meara (3/96 – loss of 63 points)

9—Richard Fahey (9/116 – loss of 10 points)

6—Kevin Ryan (6/60 – loss of 18 points)

5—Tim Easterby (4/61 – loss of 24 points)

5—Bryan Smart (2/10 – Profit of 4 points)

4—Charlie Appleby (3/20 – loss of 7 points)

4—William Haggas (5/29 – loss of 4 points)

4—Mark Johnston (3/63 – loss of 38 points)

4—Paul Midgley (0/27)

3—Brian Ellison (1/28 – loss of 19 points)

3—Richard Hannon (3/25 – Profit of 10 points)

3—Hugo Palmer (2/15 – Profit of 7 points)

3—Roger Varian (4/22 – loss of 4 points)

2—John Butler (---)

2—Mick Channon (1/19 – loss of 10 points)

2—Mick Easterby (2/39 – loss of 3 points)

2—Roger Fell (0/2)

2—John Gosden (3/16 – Profit of 1 points)

2—Charlie Hills (2/16 – loss of 7 points)

2—John Quinn (0/18)

2—David Simcock (1/17 – loss of 7 points)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £160.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Yarmouth: The last two renewals of this meeting were staged elsewhere

Perth: £26.50 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Worcester: £60.40 – 7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced

 

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