ASCOT – MAY 3
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £138.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Four year average Placepot dividend at this corresponding meeting contested at Ascot (the meeting in 2012 was staged at Kempton): £102.53.
Highest dividend: £143.80 (2015) – Lowest dividend: £58.90 (2013)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Corinthian Knight) & 4 (Inviolable Spirit)
Leg 2 (2.35): 5 (Icespire), 2 (Blending) & 3 (Cirencester)
Leg 3 (3.10): 2 (Battersea), 8 (Sweet Selection) & 1 (Harbour Law)
Leg 4 (3.45): 2 (Blue Point), 1 (Harry Angel) & 7 (Seven Heavens)
Leg 5 (4.20): 7 (Tabarrak) & 1 (Ennaadd)
Leg 6 (4.55): 7 (Selection), 3 (Oasis Spear), 10 (Directorship) & 2 (Balmoral Castle)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: The terms and conditions of the opening event greatly favour the two horses which have already posted winning form. In ordinary two-year-olds event, such horses would be expected to concede weight but this Conditions contest carries no such penalties whereby CORINTHIAN KNIGHT and INVIOLABLE SPRIT should extend their respective unbeaten records between them though aside from a dead heat, something has to give. The pair are listed in marginal preference, though not enough to warrant a win selection. It’s worth noting that last year’s 8/15 favourite was turned over though that said, the winner that day hailed from the yard of Wesley A Ward with Create A Dream only beaten a length in Royal Ascot’s Albany Stakes next time out.
Favourite factor: All fifteen winners have scored at 6/1 or less, whilst six favourites have prevailed to date. Eleven of the seventeen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. This meeting was transferred to Kempton five years ago but I have included the (high profile) result nonetheless.
Trainer records with juveniles at Ascot - 2016 figures + last five year ratios in brackets
Archie Watson (Corinthia Knight) – No runners to date
Tom Dascombe (Frozen Angel) – 0/5 (0/13)
Charlie Hills (Global Tango) – 0/5 (1/24)
Richard Fahey (Inviolable Sprit) – 0/8 (0/19)
Richard Hannon (Tangled) – 4/26 (13/81)
2.35: John Gosden has won this race in two of the last four contests when represented whereby his two runners ICESPIRE and BLENDING are respected, especially as John has sent out nine of his last twenty one runners to winning effect. ICESPIRE scored in facile fashion when winning on debut at Salisbury and any amount of ‘normal’ improvement (whatever that is) should be good enough to land this event. BLENDING would have been of each way interest at the trade press quote of 10/1, though those odds look fanciful this morning, with 7/1 the best on offer at the time of writing. If John is to be denied, CIRENCESTER could be the joker in the pack, especially as like the other runners in the field, Henry Candy’s filly receives five pounds from Glitter Girl.
Favourite factor: 15/16 winners have scored at odds of a top price of 8/1. Seven favourites have won, whilst eleven of the seventeen market leaders have finished in the frame.
3.10: Four-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals of the ‘Sagaro’, though St Leger winner HARBOUR LAW is asked to concede plenty of weight here and giving four pounds to dual course winner BATTERSEA could prove to be a tough ask. Unbeaten around here via two fast ground assignments to date, BATTERSEA looks to be the value for money call, with SWEET SELECTION also entering the equation in receipt of an additional three pounds from HARBOUR LAW. A winner of five of her last eight races, SWEET SELECTION rounded off last season by making short work of her Cesarewitch rivals.
Favourite factor: Seventeen of the last nineteen favourites have been beaten in this ‘Sagaro Stakes’, with just six market leaders finishing in the frame in the process. That said, seventeen of the last nineteen winners scored at odds of 8/1 or less.
Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:
2/2—Battersea (2 x good to firm)
1/5—Pallasator (good to firm)
3.45: ‘Team Hannon’ has celebrated three winners via the last eleven contests and Richard is represented by 33/1 chance Legendary Lunch on this occasion. Richard’s Dragon Pulse colt might reward each way investors, though this appears to be a tough ask with BLUE POINT, SEVEN HEAVENS and HARRY ANGEL having been declared. Charlie Appleby has saddled three of his last four runners to winning effect whereby BLUE POINT gets the marginal call though the other pair are likely to offer plenty of resistance at the business end of proceedings. Harry Angle won the Group 2 ‘Mill Reef’ in taking fashion at Newbury last back end, whilst Seven Heavens can make up for a slightly disappointing effort the last day having been dropped back in distance now.
Favourite factor: Four of the last twelve favourites have won, whilst thirteen of the last nineteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. Eleven of the last thirteen winners have scored at odds ranging between 6/4 and 7/1.
Ascot record of course winners in the fourth race:
1/1—Seven Heavens (good to firm)
4.20: Four-year-olds have snared five renewals during the last eleven years and TABARRAK can continue the trend on behalf of the vintage, especially as Richard Hannon’s Acclamation gelding is the only (fast ground) course winner in the field. The other four-year-olds command respect too, with ENNAADD heading the weights with a chance, whilst there are worse outsiders on the card than MOOTHARER I’ll wager. Ennaadd is asked to give three pounds to Tabarrak which suggests there will not be too much daylight between the pair at the jamstick. David O’Meara has been saddling a few winners of late but his pair of representatives (Mondialiste and Firmament) fail to represent value for money in such a warm race from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Eight of the fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners), though it’s worth noting that the 4/9 favourite in a ’win only’ contest was turned over seven years ago.
Record of the course winner in the fifth event:
1/1—Tabarrak (good to firm)
4.55: Horses carrying 8-13 or more have secured six of the seven available Placepot postitions to date and though we have to take allowances into consideration here (hoping that the relevant pilots claim their full entitlement), the field can be narrowed from fourteen down to six, with SELECTION added into the mix from just sixteen ounces below the ‘superior’ weight barrier. William Haggas continues in great form with eight of his last nineteen runners having won, stats which have produced twelve points of level stake profits. Two horses higher up the handicap expected to offer most resistance are named as OASIS SPEAR and last year’s winner BALMORAL CASTLE. The reserve nomination is awarded to dual course winner DIRECTORSHIP.
Favourite factor: One of the two favourites secured a Placepot position without winning its respective event two years ago.
Draw factor (One mile straight):
9-7-5-10 (17 ran-good to soft)
15-3-11 (12 ran-good to firm)
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/2—Balmoral Castle (good to soft)
2/8—Directorship (good & good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track last season + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Richard Hannon (6/79 – loss of 46 points)
3—John Gosden (8/48 – Profit of 3 points)
3—William Haggas (3/38 – loss of 7 points)
3—Hughie Morrison (1/12 – Profit of 1 point)
3—David O’Meara (0/29)
2—Charlie Appleby (3/32 – loss of 2 points)
2—Clive Cox (3/20 – Profit of 19 points)
2—Charlie Hills (0/19)
2—Roger Varian (2/23 – loss of 14 points)
+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
56 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Brighton: £2,342.50 – 10 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 6 unplaced
Pontefract: £131.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Yarmouth: No meeting at Yarmouth twelve months ago
Wolverhampton: £105.00 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced