NOTTINGHAM – MAY 31
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £55.50 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham:
Leg 1 (2.20): 7 (Marilyn M), 10 (One For June) & 1 (Alba Del Sole)
Leg 2 (2.50): 7 (Primanora), 2 (Meandmyshadow) & 4 (Monarch Maid)
Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Vice Versa) & 2 (Seduce Me)
Leg 4 (3.50): 5 (White Lake), 2 (Algaith) & 4 (Dragon Mail)
Leg 5 (4.20): 7 (Playful Sound) & 3 (Entsar)
Leg 6 (4.50): 3 (Dominating), 5 (Amadeus Rox) & 6 (Stragar)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.20: MARILYN M is an interesting contender given that George Scott has saddled four recent winners alongside a juvenile gold medallist, whilst the booking of Silvestre De Sousa catches the eye in no uncertain terms. Others worth a second glance in a potential Placepot buster at the first time of asking include ALBA DEL SOLE and ONE FOR JUNE. I’m far more interested in trainers than jockey bookings in general, though even I have noticed the recent Andrea Atzeni record (One For June), with the pilot having ridded nine of his last twenty two mounts to winning effect.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have secured Placepot positions via three renewals thus far, statistics which include one (7/4**) winner.
2.50: Although exchange dealings have been light in this event at the time of writing, it’s worth noting that there has been support for both outsiders in the contest, namely MEANDMYSHADOW and MONARCH MAID and in a race which will not take a great deal of winning, I’m willing to speculate that at least one of this pair will reach the frame. I’m also willing to accept however that PRIMANORO looks a more viable proposition from a win perspective, though I’m not prepared to bet on that scenario personally.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 favourite duly obliged.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/1—Socialites Red (good)
3.20: Nine of the ten winners during the last decade carried a minimum burden of 9-2, statistics which produce just two qualifiers on this occasion. VICE VERSA is one the relevant entries having been declared by Sir Michael Stoute who has won with two of the three runners he has saddled here at Nottingham this season (see full details below). SEDUCE ME is the other relevant entry and it’s worth noting that the 10/1 trade press quote looks fanciful given the overnight support for the Karl Burke raider.
Favourite factor: Five of the last eight renewals have been secured by market leaders during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 7/1. Nine of the ten favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the study period.
3.50: Five-year-olds have won all three renewals to date, with the two relevant entries this time around facing odds of 3/1 before form lines are taken into consideration. Both WHITE LAKE and ALGAITH boast each way claims in what will hopefully remain a ‘dead eight’ contest whilst if the vintage is to be denied this time around, DRAGON MAIL could prove to be the joker in the pack.
Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (13/8) gold medallist.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:
1/1—Big Baz (good)
4.20: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last ten renewals (five-year-olds won the other two contests) whereby PLAYFUL SOUND and ENTSAR both become more positive ‘selections’, given that I was looking to nominate this pair before I took note of the stats. I have already spoken positively about Sir Michael’s record here this season (albeit via ‘early doors’), whilst William Haggas continues to send out winners with incredible consistency this season.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won four of the last seven contests, though they were the only successful market leaders during the last decade. Indeed, only one of the other six favourites finished in the frame.
Record of the course winner in the fifth contest:
1/1—Very Dashing (good)
4.50: Seven of the eight winners in the Placepot finale have carried a minimum burden of 8-11, producing four qualifiers this time around. The pick of the relevant quartet will hopefully prove to be DOMINATING though it is two horses further down the weights that I fear most, namely STRAGAR and AMADEUS ROX. Only one rider has ridden more winners for Michael Appleby (Stragar) than Silvestre De Sousa, whilst Alan King (Amadeus Rox – seven of his last thirteen runners have won) has his team in sparkling form.
Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed via just eight renewals. Eight of the nine favourites secured Placepot positions for good measure.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Nottingham card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
3 runners—Michael Appleby (2/16 – loss of 1 point)
3—William Haggas (0/3)
3—David Simcock (0/1)
2—Marco Botti (0/1)
2—Giles Bravery (0/1)
2—Karl Burke (0/9)
2—Scott Dixon (1/3 – Profit of 12 points)
2—Richard Fahey (2/13 – loss of 4 points)
2—Richard Hannon (3/10 – Profit of 10 points)
2—Peter Hiatt (0/1)
2—John Gosden (1/5 – loss of 1 point)
2—Daniel Mark Loughnane (0/3)
2—Sir Michael Stoute (2/3 – Profit of 10 points)
+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
59 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £19.30 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced
Beverley: £382.20 – 7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced
Kempton: £18.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Cartmel: £350.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced