Placepot pointers – Wednesday May 4

CHESTER – MAY 4 

Five year Placepot details on day one of the Chester May meeting:

2015: £16.30 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

2014: £68.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2013: £1,492.00 (8 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 6 unplaced)

2012: £110.00 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £69.60 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average dividend: £351.32 - 36 favourites - 9 winners - 10 placed - 17 unplaced

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 6 (Fiery Character) & 2 (Copper Knight)

Leg 2 (2.40): 8 (Somehow) & 7 (Pursuitofthestars)

Leg 3 (3.10): 12 (Steve Rogers), 8 (Silver Concorde), 19 (Venue) & 15 (No Heretic)

Leg 4 (3.45): 2 (Roudee), 7 (Mukaynis), 15 (Lexi's Hero) & 3 (Avon Breeze)

Leg 5 (4.20): 5 (Maljaa) & 1 (Dutch Masterpiece)

Leg 6 (4.55): 4 (Mulk) & 1 (Exoteric)

Suggested stake: 256 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page (important trainer stats)

2.10 ('Lily Agnes'): Horses drawn wide have dominated two of the last three renewals which is a huge contrast to what has transpired in the opening ‘Lily Agnes’ event down the years, though things returned back to normal twelve months ago.  I might be wrong, though this looks to be a weaker event than is normally the case, with Tom Dascombe's Newmarket winner FIERY CHARACTER (drawn 1/8) making most appeal ahead of stable companion IMDANCINWITHURWIFE (7) and COPPER KNIGHT (5).  Tom has saddled three juveniles to winning effect this season and two of them take each other on here, with COPPER KNIGHT expected to push the pair all the way to the line..

Favourite factor: 14 of the 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (eight winners) during the last 18 years.  Sixteen of the last eighteen winners have scored at 9/1 or less.

Represented trainer record with juveniles at Chester during the last five years:

David Evans (Awesome Allan & Letmestopyouthere): 1/60

Hugo Palmer (Copper Knight): 0/1

Stan Moore (Patroville De Nuit): 0/3

Steph Hollinshead (Stoneyford Lane): No runners

Tom Dascombe (Fiery Character & Imdancinwithurwife): 12/59

Michael Apple (Our Greta): 0/2

Draw factor' (five furlongs):

2-1-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

10-9-3 (10 ran-good)

8-9-10 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-2-8 (8 ran-soft)

2-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

5-3 (7 ran--good)

5-7-2 (8 ran--good to firm)

2-5 (6 ran--good)

3-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-2-6 (10 ran-good to soft)

1-2-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

1-7 (7 ran-good)

3-2-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

8-1-2 (9 ran-good to firm)

2-5 (7 ran-good)

5-1-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

2-1 (7 ran-good)

2.40 'Cheshire Oaks'): Aidan O’Brien has won this event four times in the last eight years (not represented three years ago) and with SOMEHOW having been given the green light this time around, Ryan Moore's mount should take some stopping.  Having endured traffic problems on debut, SOMEHOW managed to turn a 5/4 market leader over without too much trouble at the second time of asking at Leopardstown four weeks ago.  The official ratings suggest that the five pound penalty incurred by DESEERTOFLIFE for winning a Group 3 event on the continent last year should not prove too much of a problem, whilst PURSUITOFTHESTARS (scored at the fifth time of asking for John Gosden the last day) should also figure prominently.

Favourite factor: 15 of the 21 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (nine winners) during the study period.

Draw factor: (twelve furlongs):

2-7-3 (10 ran-good to soft)

2-4-9 (9 ran-good)

7-9-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-2-1 (9 ran-soft)

8-1-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-4 (7 ran--good)

2-6 (7 ran--good to firm)

4-1-2 (9 ran--good)

4-6-11 (11 ran-good to firm)

1-10-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-3 (6 ran-good to soft)

1-2-4 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-7-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

4-1 (5 ran-good to firm)

3-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-4 (5 ran-good)

7-6-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-2-8 (8 ran-good)

2.40 (Chester Cup): This is one of the few ‘staying’ races on the entire racing calendar that is dependent upon the draw (to a fashion) and we ignore the stall positions at our potential peril.  Low numbers invariably rule the roost as six of the last nine results (see below) confirm.  Six-year-olds have won this event four times in the last eight years, whilst eight of the last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-2.  STEVE ROGERS (drawn 3/19) and SILVER CONCORDE (9) make most appeal.  Six-year-old VENUE is the dark horse in the field down at the foot of the handicap, though a pipe opener fifteen days ago should have shaken off the cobwebs and providing he has enough pace to 'lie up' from trap one, Donald McCain's Beat Hollow representative could outrun his huge odds.  NO HERETIC (4) completes my quartet against the field.

Favourite factor: Three of the last seventeen favourites have won the Chester Cup, whilst eight of the twenty one market leaders have reached the frame during the study period.

Draw factor: (eighteen and a half furlongs):

11-9-7-3 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-11-2-5 (17 ran-good)

2-7-11-14 (17-good to firm)

13-8-19-4 (16 ran-soft)

1-3-16-19 (17 ran-good to firm)

5-16-6-1 (17 ran--good)

4-8-7-6 (16 ran--good to firm)

13-11-8 (17 ran-good to firm)

1-2-11-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

15-8-11-2 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-18-11-5 (17 ran-good to soft)

2-3-15-4 (16 ran-good to firm)

7-8-6-15 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-4-16-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

4-3-17-5 (18 ran-good)

13-16-9-8 (16 ran-good to firm)

9-10-3-17 (18 ran-good)

Chester record of course winners in the Chester Cup:

1/1--Steve Rogers

3/12--English Summer

1/10--Gabrial's King

3.45: Only on four occasions during the last 18 years has a runner emerging from either trap one or stall number two failed to gain a toteplacepot position in this event. Even though that scenario occurred for the fourth time in 2013, the next stall (three) housed the 12/1 winner.  The haul of just three gold medals in the process is nothing to write home about but the toteplacepot stat is impressive given that an average of 13 horses have contested the race during the study period. The final stat to offer relates to vintages as five-year-olds lead the four-year-old 4-3 via the last eight contests.  The appropriately named ROUDEE (1) and MUKAYNIS (2) are the relevant 'draw horses' on this occasion and it might take an act of God to prevent me from including both runners in my permutation come sun up. Both horses fit the positive weight trends (the last twelve winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3) and others catching the eye at the time of writing are AVON BREEZE (6) and (possibly) LEXI'S HERO (9). The latter named Richard Fahey raider was mentioned the same way ("possibly") last year before scoring at 10/1. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to BLITHE SPIRIT.

Favourite factor: 20 of the 21 favourites have been beaten since 1997, whilst 10 market leaders have finished in the frame during the period.

Draw factor: (five furlongs):

4-8-2 (11 ran-good to soft)

4-1-7 (12 ran-good)

3-5-8 (13 ran-good to firm)

2-7-9 (14 ran-soft)

7-9-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-7-5 (13 ran--good)

4-1-6 (12 ran--good to firm)

Your first 30 days for just £1

7-2-8 (14 ran--good)

6-7-4 (13 ran-good)

2-4-8 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-4 (14 ran-good to soft)

4-2-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

1-5-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-1-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

8-2-5 (12 ran-good to firm)

6-4-1 (12 ran-good)

6-1-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

Chester record of course winners in the fourth event:

1/7--Roudee

4/9--Blithe Spirit

2/8--Masamah

1/2--Seve

1/3--Kimberella

1/8--Confessional

3/14--Lexis Hero

4.20: Dr Marwan Koukash has his colours primed for this meeting as stated a while ago when announcing that this was his ‘Royal Ascot’ fixture of the year.  The famous grey colours (with an orange star) are scheduled to be represented eleven times on the opening day of the meeting, with RENE MATHIS (drawn 7/9) being offered his chance here.  It's worth noting that Gary Moore wastes no time declaring DUTCH MASTERPIECE again following a quiet run at Newmarket at the weekend when the groudn might have dried out a little more than connections would have wanted.  A good draw here (2) and with Ryan back in the plate, Gary's Dutch Art raider will be given another chance if the forecast shower arrive on cue. If conditions go the other way, CANNY KOOL (1) could be considered, whilst MALJAA (5) is as consistent as they come.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have secured gold and (two) silver medals alongside toteplacepot positions. The last three market leaders have failed to win following the successful 9/4 favourite in the inaugural year (2012).

Draw factor: (five furlongs):

5-1-7 (8 ran-good to soft)

3-4-6 (9 ran-good)

3-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-7 (7 ran-soft)

Chester record of course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2--Dutch Masterpiece

2/4--Silvanus

2/10--Ballista

1/3--Sir Maximilian

4.55: Well fancied have (aside from last year) performed well in the Placepot finale and we appear to have a two horse race to consider with MULK seemingly having only EXOTERIC to beat. MULK only found one too good for him in the 'Wood Ditton' and any amount of 'normal' improvement should ensure that Paul Hanagn's mount can go one better, especially with EXOTERIC .

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 16 winners have scored at 3/1 or less. Favourites have won eight of the last eleven contests, whilst 15 of the last 19 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions.  Those stats include last year's 1/6 (Aidan O'Brien trained) favourite, though the market leader could only finished second behind a 10/1 winner!

Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

3-8 (7 ran-good to soft)

8-1-4 (11 ran-good)

7-11-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

11-7-2 (13 ran-soft)

6-3-8-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

2-8 (7 ran--good)

10-1-7 (11 ran--good to firm)

2-4-5 (9 ran--good)

4-10-1 (11 ran-good)

7-3-8 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-1 (6 ran-good to soft)

3-1-2 (8 ran-good to soft)

6 (4 ran-good to firm)

7-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-5 (6 ran-good to firm)

4-1 (5 ran-good)

2-3-1 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-8-3 (10 ran-good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Chester card on Wednesday:

10--Richard Fahey (13/99 at Chester last season)

6--Tom Dascombe (12/56)

5--Charlie Hills (0/8)

4--David Evans (2/38)

3--Ian Williams (0/16)

2--Eric Alston (2/8)

2--Ralph Beckett (0/5)

2--Tim Easterby (1/15)

2--Brian Ellison (1/15)

2--Mark Johnston (12/56)

2--Tony Martin (0/1)

2--Donald McCain (--)

2--James Tate (--)

2--Roger Varian (3/12)

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

72 declared runners

 

General overview:

Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chelmsford: £120.30 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

Marco Botti secured a 51/1 double on the Chelmsford card - 1 runner - Dream Factory (7.15)

Kelso: £61.30 (7 favourites - 4 winners & 3 unplaced)

Malcolm Jefferson secured a short priced (9/2) double last year - 2 runners on Wednesday

Newton Abbot: £34,057.10 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

Other meetingWetherby (new fixture)

 

Chester overview:

Leading trainers at the Chester May Meeting during the last five years - followed by totals for each day Wednesday-Thursday-Friday in brackets:

13--Richard Fahey (3-5-5)

13--Aidan O'Brien (3-5-5)

9--Tom Dascombe (4-2-3)

6--Andrew Balding (2-2-2)

6--Mark Johnston (3-2-1)

5--John Gosden (3-1-1)

Favourite stats during the period - (odds on ratios in brackets where applicable):

11/19--Aidan O'Brien (2/3)

5/6--Andrew Balding

5/12--Richard Fahey (1/1)

Negative favourite stats include: 

1/6--Mark Johnston

0/4--Sir Michael Stoute (0/1)

0/3--Brian Ellison

0/3--Barry Hills (0/1)

0/3--David Simcock

Your first 30 days for just £1