Placepot pointers – Wednesday November 16

KEMPTON  - NOVEMBER 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £1,525.40 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (4.10): 8 (Top Diktat), 1 (Pink Ribbon) & 10 (Bollinhope)

Leg 2 (4.40): 9 (King Of Nepal), 12 (Fire Brigade) & 5 (Life On Mars)

Leg 3 (5.10): 8 (Leshlaa) & 13 (Wefait)

Leg 4 (5.40): 2 (Esprit De Corps), 2 (Chessman) & 12 (Hadeeqa)

Leg 5 (6.10): 12 (Shenanigans) & 6 (Qatar Man)

Leg 6 (6.40): 5 (Here Comes When), 6 (You’re Fired) & 1 (Richard Pankhurst)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

4.10: Horses carrying weights of 9-1 or more have secured 18 of the 20 available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include all seven winners.  Gary Moore is the only trainer to have secured two victories thus far whereby TOP DIKTAT is the first name on the overnight team sheet, albeit only from a Placepot perspective.  Running off a four spot lower mark than when last successful, TOP DIKTAT also has the advantage of a decent three pound claimer in the saddle.  Sylvester Kirk’s consistent performer PINK RIBBON is not weighted out of contention from my viewpoint, whilst BOLLIHOPE is a changed horse of late who demands plenty of respect.
Favourite factor: All seven favourites have finished out with the washing thus far with bookmakers laughing all the way to the bank with gold medallists having scored at 20/1 (George Baker) - 20/1 (Shaun Lycett) - 14/1 (Bryn Palling) - 12/1 (Gary Moore) - 10/1 (Terry Clement) - 8/1 (Alan McCabe) – 8/1 (Gary Moore).

Record of the course winners in the opening contest:

1/10—Choral Clay

2/18—Top Diktat

1/31—Shifting Star

1/6—Solveig’s Song

4.40: With the other thirteen trainers ‘boasting’ an aggregate strike rate of less than 10% in the Nursery sector in 2016 (see full stats at the end of the analysis), it might be worth taking a chance on KING OF NEPAL, the first two-year-old handicap runner of the season for Henry Candy.  That said, FIRE BRIGADE is going the right way having been gelded, whilst dual beaten favourite LIFE ON MARS might be worth another chance in this company/grade with first time blinkers having been declared.
Favourite factor: Seven of the nine favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (4/1 & 11/4**) winners.

5.10: The shortage of newcomers suggests that the two placed debut contenders should at least get us through to the next leg of our favourite wager, namely LESHLAA and WEFAIT.  I would not necessarily back either horse to win though that said, Saeed Bin Suroor (Leshlaa) can do little wrong of late.
Favourite factor: All fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include six successful favourites form a win perspective.  The biggest priced winner during the period had been returned at odds of 9/1 until the 2014 gold medallist sprang a surprise at 20/1.  Thankfully the race reverted to type twelve months ago when favourites won both divisions at 11/10 & 10/11.

5.40: This is the second division of the previous race on the Kempton card, whereby the same stats and facts apply.  Roger Charlton is not one to wax lyrical about his junior representatives whereby his positive words about ESPRIT DE CORPS during a stable visit earlier in the year were noted down and sure enough, Roger’s February foal ran a nice race on introduction following a less than impressive exit from the stalls last month. Any amount of normal improvement (whatever that is) should earn connections prize money this time around, though two of the newcomers are attracting the eye, namely John Gosden’s CHESSMAN and HADEEQA (Simon Crisford).
Favourite factor: All fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include six successful favourites form a win perspective.  The biggest priced winner during the period had been returned at odds of 9/1 until the 2014 gold medallist sprang a surprise at 20/1.  Thankfully the race reverted to type twelve months ago when favourites won both divisions at 11/10 & 10/11.

6.10: QATAR MAN deserves to get his head in front but a Placepot position will do for now, a comment which also applies to SHENANIGANS, especially with Messers Hannon (MUSTARRID) and Johnston (THE LAST DEBUTANTE) having declared newcomers.  I’m hoping that the experience gained by the first named pair will prove useful against the other duo.
Favourite factor: All three favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (8/13) successful market leader.

6.40: The last nine winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stone whereby the bottom two horses in the list are eliminated from my overnight enquiries.  I have been waiting over a month for HERE COMES WHEN to run after a desperately unlucky run at Ascot.  This was a typically over the top ride from ‘hold up Spencer’ but that said, traffic problems have blighted the best jockeys all over the world.  Suffice to say that as a six time winner in fields averaging just eight horses, HERE COMES WHEN is expected to gain compensation on Wednesday evening.  Jamie rides one if the bigger threats in CALLING OUT from a ‘conspiracy theory’ perspective, whilst others to consider include YOUR’E FIRED and RICHARD PANKHURST who was an even money chance for this event twelve months ago when finishing seventh of eight.  It’s interesting that trainer John Gosden has chosen to contest the race again with his four-year-old, especially when digesting the fact that this is just the second assignment away from turf.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite in this Listed event following ten renewals, though three of the last seven market leaders did at least secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—You’re Fired

1/1--Ennaadd

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Wednesday followed by their 2016 stats at the track + profits/losses accrued:

4—Mark Johnston (11/54 – Profit of 8 points)

4—Sylvester Kirk (7/31 – profit of 41 points)

4—Roger Varian  (11/43 – Profit of 10 points)

3—Alan Bailey (0/11)

3—Michael Bell (0/17)

3—Declan Carroll (No runners)

3—James Fanshawe (9/44 – loss of 9 losses)

3—John Gosden (11/38 – Profit of 19 points)

3—William Haggas (8/24 – Profit of 10 points)

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3—Richard Hannon (13/83 – loss of 7 points)

3—Gary Moore (7/61 – loss of 22 points)

3—Hughie Morrison (3/33 – loss of 12 points)

3—Saeed Bin Suroor (2/18 – loss of 13 losses)

2—Andrew Balding (11/56 – slight loss)

2—Jim Best (0/6)

2—Marco Botti (6/39 – loss of 13 points)

2—Karl Burke (1/21 – loss of 18 points)

2—John Butler (2/9 – Profit of 6 points)

2—Roger Charlie (5/21 – slight profit)

2—Charlie Hills (4/34 – loss of 9 points)

2—Keith Dalgleish (Profit of 10 points)

2—Alan King (1/7 – loss of 3 points)

2—Daniel Kubler (0/14)

2—David Menusier (0/5)

2—Brendan Powell (2/15 – Profit of 23 points)

+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

104 declared runners

 

Nursery record of represented trainers in 2016 relating to the two-year-old handicap on the card at 4.40:

1/5—Alan Bailey (Sassoferrato)

1/13—James Eustace (Penny Green)

1/23—Charlie Hills (Imperial City)

3/26—Jamie Osborne (Wentwell Yesterday)

4/23—William Haggas (Life On Mars)

0/6—Pat Phelan (Sixties Habana)

0/2—Daniel Kubler (I Wouldn’t Bother)

0/9—Jim Boyle (Moonstone Rock)

No runners—Henry Candy (Knight Of Nepal)

1/8—Henry Cain (Royal Melody)

1/36—Sylvester Kirk (Latest Quest)

3/16—Michael Bell (Fire Brigade)

6/56—David Evans (Princess Way)

4/43—Karl Burke (Rita’s Way)

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £134.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Hexham: Meeting abandoned

Warwick: £24.60 – 6 winners – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

 

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