WETHERBY - OCTOBER 14
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £21.00 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Wetherby:
Leg 1 (2.20): 5 (Nucky Thompson) & 7 (Silver Streak)
Leg 2 (2.55): 1 (Ballybolley), 2 (Shear Rock) & 4 (Actinpieces)
Leg 3 (3.30): 6 (Tell The Tale), 3 (Improved) & 9 (Louloumills)
Leg 4 (4.00): 3 (The Grey Taylor), 10 (Degooch) & 2 (Art Of Logistics)
Leg 5 (4.35): 5 (Frederik) & 7 (Crookstown)
Leg 6 (5.10): 2 (Moonbeg River) & 9 (Attimo)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wetherby - please scroll down to the bottom of the page – includes % stats for leading trainers over the last five years (separated figures of last season):
2.20: Three of the last five winners were making their debuts over hurdles and the pick of the newcomers on this occasion should prove to be the Richard Spencer raider NUCKY THOMPSON which is ridden by Neil Fehily, something of a tip in itself. Plenty of people will latch onto SILVER STREAK who is trying to break a maiden tag which stretches to nine assignments under both codes of the sport. Add Ann Duffield’s 5% strike rate the NH sector these last five years via just the one winner, and it is easy to see why I will take a chance on the newcomer.
Favourite factor: Just four of the last nineteen favourites have obliged, whilst thirteen of the twenty market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. The 2013 successful (15/8) favourite was the first market leader to oblige since the old king died, though that said, seven of the previous eight winners had scored at a top price of 7/1.
2.55: This is an interesting Novice Chase event which was won last year by Twelve Roses who went on to finish second in the ‘Pendil’ at Kempton before closing out his season successful when landing (4/9) odds at Ascot in a Class 3 event. Course winner ACTINPIECES would hold claims if there was any rain around overnight, though BALLYBOLLEY is a class act that could take the beating under these terms and conditions. SHEAR ROCK is an interesting addition to the (novice) chasing ranks and with Charlie Longsdon saddling winners for fun right now, Charlie’s six-year-old is included in the overnight mix. Nigel Twiston-Davies sends out BALLYBOLLEY with Nigel’s runners also running well at this moment in time, boasting a recent 7/14 strike rate.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite found a 4/1 chance too good for him from a win perspective, albeit the 2/1 market leader secured a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ event. New readers might want to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.
Record of the course winner in the field:
3.30: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the last fifteen renewals which suggests that this year’s two vintage representatives have to be considered in the overnight mix, though LOULOUMILLS (the pick of the pair from my viewpoint) might struggle to actually win the contest. More logical gold medallists in the field include TELL THE TALE and IMPROVED.
Favourite factor: 11 of the last 15 favourites in this event have won, with 3/1-3/1-7/2-9/2 chances having snared gold in the other contests. 16 of the 23 market leaders have finished in the frame during an extended study period, statistics which include 13 winners.
4.00: Seven-year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 6-3 during the last decade. THE GREY TAYLOR was beaten in the 2.55 event last year and is one of the two seven-year-olds in the field alongside DEGOOCH who also possesses Placepot claims. Philip Hobbs snared gold twelve months ago and the ‘Master Trainer’ (Matt Chapman’s description) has offered the green light to eight-year-old ART OF LOGISTICS. Other eight-year-olds in the field are PAIR OF JACKS, ASHCOTT BOY and GURKHA BRAVE, the trio being listed in order of preference at the overnight stage.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won via the last six renewals of this event, albeit the two jollies that failed to win their respective events finished out with the washing, missing out on Placepot positions.
Record of course winners in the fourth event on the card:
2/4—The Grey Taylor (good & soft)
1/1—Lord Wishes (good)
1/5—Alderbrook Lad (good to soft)
4.35: I led last year’s analysis by suggesting that Lord Wishes (runs in the previous race on Wednesday) would be the speculative each way option as a long shot to put forward before scoring at 14/1. This year’s each way call is CROOKSTOWN who will be ridden by Richard Johnson who has scored on two of his previous four rides for trainer Ben Case. More realistic winners in the line up (I guess) include FREDERIK and NAUTICAL NOTWIT.
Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have snared Placepot positions, statistics which include one (11/8) winner.
Record of the course winner in the fifth event:
1/4--Mr Moonshine (good)
5.05: 12/1 winner Oliver’s Gold was offered up as an each way danger twelve months ago, the third seven-year-old to win this event via just four renewals. This year’s pair of vintage representatives are making their seasonal debuts but that said, both MOONBEG RIVER and ATTIMO are offered the green light by yours truly. If the vintage trend goes base over apex on this occasion, HELIUM could prove to be the joker in the pack.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful market leader in the Placepot finale, though two favourites at least reached the frame (exact science).
Record of the course winners in the sixth event:
2/7—Indian Voyage (good to soft & heavy)
1/4--Trust Thomas (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wetherby card on Wednesday – figures in brackets relate to relevant stats last season:
4 runners—Micky Hammond (5/61)
4—Neil King (0/5)
3—Martin Todhunter (1/6)
2—Maurice Barnes (1/9)
2—Brian Ellison (see stats below)
2—Sam England (0/4)
2—Ann Hamilton (1/2)
2—Henry Hogarth (0/4)
2—Philip Kirby (4/17)
2—Charlie Longsdon (see stats below)
2—Neil Mulholland (see stats below)
2—Sue Smith (see stats below)
+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
56 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Bath: £258.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced
Nottingham: £16.60 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed - 2 unplaced
Kempton A/W): £403.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Wetherby overview – This is the first NH meeting of the season – Five year stats for random sample of trainers at the course (ratios in brackets refer to last season) - then ratios offered for trainers who achieved at least a 25% strike rate during the last five years:
28/191—Sue Smith (5/37)
18/71—Jonjo O’Neill (2/11) – 25.4% ratio over the last five years
17/130—Donald McCain (1/14)
16/94—Brian Ellison (2/11)
14/38—Warren Greatrex (3/13) – 36.8%
9/24—Kim Bailey (3/6) – 37.6%
8/43—David Pipe (2/9)
7/38—Alan King (0/4)
7/39—Charlie Longsdon (2/5)
6/17—Paul Nicholls (0/4) – 35.3%
6/28—Philip Hobbs (3/8)
5/19—Nicky Henderson (1/5) – 26.3%
5/35—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/10)
4/7—Colin Tizzard (4/6) – 57.1%
4/15—Dr Richard Newland (2/4) – 26.7%
3/7—Harry Fry (2/6) – 42.9%
3/16—Fergal O’Brien (0/1)
3/21—Nicky Richards (3/6)
2/3—Anthony Honeyball (---) – 66.7%
2/29—Tim Vaughan (0/2)