NEWMARKET - OCTOBER 19
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £64.40 (7 favourites - 3 winners & 4 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (1.30): 10 (White Chocolate) & 3 (Curlew Rover)
Leg 2 (2.00): 10 (Sulafah), 5 (Gallifrey) & 8 (Passcode)
Leg 3 (2.30): 9 (Mullarkey), 8 (Presence Protest) & 10 (Elementary)
Leg 4 (3.05): 10 (Rummani) & 13 (Volatile)
Leg 5 (3.40): 1 (Dreamfield) & 5 (Top Score)
Leg 6 (4.15): 1 (Alfawaris), 5 (Cracksman) & 9 (Stradivarius)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.30: All six Placepot races are juvenile events, as are seven of the eight races on the card. This makes for interesting racing, though aside from our favourite wager, perhaps any other wagers should be saved for another day though that said, the favourite stats (see below) are particularly impressive following five renewals of this opening event. The fact that the first five races on the card are contested over the 'specialist seven furlong trip' adds to the intrigue. Upwards and onward by informing that horses with one half decent effort to date are likely to head the market in both divisions of the opening event. WHITE CHOCOLATE is the horse in question for openers, with CURLEW RIVER nominated as a potential threat. The reason for picking out Mark Johnston’s Casamento filly as the threat is determined by the fact that Mark held eleven options for the juvenile races last weekend, but now only CURLEW RIVER is offered the green light on the entire two-year-old card. Out of interest, there are no course winners involved in any of the seven two-year-old races at the meeting.
Favourite factor: The five favourites to date have snared three gold medals and one of the bronze variety alongside toteplacepot positions. The biggest priced winner was returned at just 11/4.
2.00: SULAFAH did not run as well as White Chocolate (contesting the first event) did on debut but that said, Roger Varian’s raider is expected to come on a great deal for her debut outing at Leicester. Jungle drums are conspicuous by their absence relating to the newcomers, though GALLIFREY and PASSCODE are proving to be quite popular at the time of writing. It will be interesting to see if such confidence lasts through until the markets open on Wednesday morning.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event on the Newmarket card.
2.30: Horses carrying nine stones or more have secured the three contests at 8/1-8/1-15/8* to date, statistics which eliminate three horses in the field if taking jockey claims into account. MULLARKEY was offered up at 33/1 the other week in a warm race at Goodwood and a ‘never nearer’ third place position was gained. I expected John Best (2/5 in Nursery events this season) to step up his April foal trip but then again, few opportunities arise for juveniles at this time of year. This sterner course will aid and abet his cause I would suggest, whereby Keiran Fox is expected to get among the medals again. Connections will have most to fear from PRESENCE PROTEST, ELEMENTARY and TAP TAP BOOM in my considered opinion..
Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites (winner at 15/8) has secured a Placepot positions thus far.
Record of represented trainers in Nursery races at all racecourses this season up to and including Monday 17th October):
9/101—Richard Hannon (Dourado & Suffragette City) – loss of 46 points
1/20—Charlie Hills (Pary’s Mountain) – loss of 17 points
1/5—Roger Charlton (Miss Anticipation) – loss of 3 points
4/17—William Haggas (Highland Lotus) – loss of 2 points
0/1—Patrick Chamings (Miss Icon)
3/10—George Baker (Tap Tap Boom) – Profit of 2 points
1/4--Gary Moore (Lord Clenaghcatsle) – No profit/loss to level stakes
1/6—Luca Cumani (Presence Process) – Profit of 5 points
2/5—John Best (Mullarkey) – Profit of 8 points)
2/12—Michael Bell (Elementary) – loss of 6 points
1/17—Ann Duffield (Uncle Charlie) – loss of 12 points
1/28—Sylvester Kirk (Star Maker) – loss of 21 points
0/1—Archie Watson (Texas Katie)
0/8—George Marsarson (Lady Kaviar)
No runners—Seamus Durack (Plato’s Code)
3.05: Of all the newcomers on the card on Wednesday, James Tate’s raider VOLATILE is as strong as any of the messages I have received in terms of their potential ability. Although Richard Hannon boasts the largest number of juvenile raider on the card (six in total), seventeen potential entries were in the offing at the weekend whereby the declaration of ENHANCEMENT catches the eye. That said, Charlie Appleby’s Dubawi representative RUMMANI should take plenty of kicking out of the frame.
Favourite factor: Five of the six winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, though we had to wait until last year for the first successful market leader to be recorded. Four of the eight favourites have finished in the frame.
3.40: John Gosden has saddled both winners to date and in DREAMFIELD, John looks likely to have the horse to land the hat trick on behalf of the yard. This is a John Gosden production and no mistake as the mother (Izzi Top) and the father (Oasis Dream) were both top notch winners for the stable and there is every chance that DREAMFIELD could emerge as a really good type next season. TOP SCORE has done precious little wrong thus far and though he has been set another tough task here, the silver medal should not be beyond the Hard Spun representative.
Favourite factor: One of the two market leaders (winner at 8/13) has claimed a Placepot position.
4.15: 13 renewals had slipped by the since the previous successful favourite
before last year’s 11/8 market leader obliged. It would be churlish to ignore John Gosden’s pair STRADIVARIUS and CRACKSMAN, whilst ALFAWARIS completes my trio against the other nine contenders.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have won seven of the last seventeen renewals whilst 12 of the 18 favourites have finished in the frame.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
WEDNESDAY’S LIST OF TRAINERS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE RUNNERS IS DIFFERENT TO USUAL – GIVEN THAT SEVEN OF THE EIGHT RACES ON THE NEWMARKET CARD ARE TWO YEAR OLD EVENTS. FOR THIS REASON, I HAVE IGNORED THE EIGHTH (LAST) RACE ON THE CARD, OFFERING THE NUMBER OF RUNNERS AND RELEVANT STATS FOR EACH TRAINER RELATING TO ONLY THIS SEASON’S TWO YEAR OLD RATIOS AT ‘HEADQUARTERS’. UNUSUALLY AGAIN, I OFFER STATS FOR EVERY TRAINER, NOT JUST FOR THOSE WITH TWO OR MORE RUNNERS.
6 runners—Richard Hannon (2/19 – loss of 1 point)
5—Roger Varian (1/5 – Profit of 10 points)
4—Michael Bell (0/2)
4—Stuart Williams (0/1)
3—John Gosden (3/10 – Profit of 8 points)
3—Hugo Palmer (2/14 – loss of 9 points)
2—Charlie Appleby (2/13 – loss of 5 points)
2—Alan Bailey (0/2)
2—Owen Burrows (1/3 – Profit of 8 points)
2—Luca Cumani (0/3)
2—Julia Feilden (0/1)
2—Rae Guest (0/1)
2—William Haggas (0/8)
2—Charlie Hills (0/8)
2—David Simcock (1/3 – Profit of 9 points)
2—Saeed Bin Suroor (1/8 – Profit of 5 points)
1—Conrad Allen (0/3)
1—George Baker (---)
1—Andrew Balding (1/7 – slight profit)
1—Ralph Beckett (0/6)
1—John Best (---)
1—Henry Candy (0/1)
1—Patrick Chamings (---)
1—Peter Chapple-Hyam (1/3 – Profit of 12 points)
1—Roger Charlton (0/1)
1—Simon Crisford (0/6)
1—Paul D’Arcy (---)
1—Ann Duffield (---)
1—Ed Dunlop (1/9 – loss of 6 points)
1—Seamus Durack (---)
1—Miss Joey Ellis (---)
1—David Elsworth (0/1)
1—Charlie Fellowes (0/4)
1—Mark Johnston (3/19 – Profit of 24 points)
1—Sylvester Kirk (0/2)
1—William Knight (0/1)
1—Daniel Kubler (---)
1—George Margarson (0/1)
1—Paul McBride (---)
1—Gary Moore (---)
1—Lydia Pearce (---)
1—Sir Michael Stoute (0/9)
1—James Tate (1/7 – loss of 3 points)
1—Mark Tompkins (---)
1—Lucy Wadham (---)
1—Archie Watson (---)
75 declared juveniles
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Fontwell: £245.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Worcester: £62.60 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed- 4 unplaced
Kempton (A/W): £39.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced