Placepot pointers – Wednesday October 2

NOTTINGHAM - NOVEMBER 2

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 10 (Darkroom Angel), 4 (Ettihadi) & 9 (Come On Percy)

Leg 2 (12.50): 8 (Meyandi), 2 (Crowned Eagle) & 6 (Master Singer)

Leg 3 (1.20): 2 (Big Challenge), 14 (Wasatch Range) & 15 (Zeelander)

Leg 4 (1.55): 3 (Gracious John) & 5 (Double Up)

Leg 5 (2.30): 7 (Applebeberry) & 2 (Silken Skies)

Leg 6 (3.00): 1 (Ballesteros) & 5 (Merdon Castle)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.20: I wrote a book called ‘Nursery Class’ many years ago at which time I suggested that the majority of Richard Fahey’s two-year-old handicap winners carried a maximum of nine stones – and little changed down the years.  Rashford’s Double carried 8-13 in the sector last time up but has shot up the weights, leaving stable contender COME ON PERCY as the value for money call of the pair.  Others to consider include DARKROOM ANGEL and ETTIHADI.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings.

12.50: 19 of the last 21 winners of this event have scored at odds of 11/1 or less which is a terrific record, especially at this stage of the season when results can go ‘belly up’.  The last eight winners have carried 9-3 or more, as have ten of the last twelve gold medallists.  I would not write off MEYANDI after one ordinary effort, as Andrew Balding waxed lyrical about his Mount Nelson representative earlier this year, with the trainer not generally giving undue credit to his inmates, especially in the unraced juvenile sector.  Others of interest in division one of this juvenile event include a couple of the John Gosden raiders, CROWNED EAGLE and MASTER SINGER.

Favourite factor: 20 of the 29 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include 10 successful favourites.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

4-11-6 (10 ran-soft)

10-11-9 (11 ran-soft)

9-10-15-14 (17 ran-good to soft)

9-3-15-7 (17 ran-good to soft)

7-2-12 (9 ran-soft)

11-9-6 (11 ran-soft)

3-4-8 (12 ran-soft)

6-8-3 (13 ran-soft)

3-6-9 (17 ran-soft)

8-15-14 (17 ran-soft)

8-3-14 (14 ran-heavy)

10-5-12 (16 ran-soft)

5-8-11 (15 ran-soft)

6-8-4 (17 ran-heavy)

11-6-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-10-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

2-3-6 (12 ran-good to soft)

12-9-14 (14 ran-soft)

1 & 10 D/H-12 (13 ran-heavy)

2-5-12 (13 ran-heavy)

14-4-2 (15 ran-heavy)

17-6-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

6-3-2 (16 ran-good to soft)

1.20: I would be surprised if BIG CHALLENGE was not ready for his debut representing Saeed Bin Suroor’s Godolphin yard, whilst others to catch the eye include WASATCH RANGE and ZEELANDER.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same stats apply.

1.55: GRACIOUS JOHN has not scored via nine assignments since January, though it’s worth pointing out that the David Evans raider has contested four Group races during the period, whereby David’s Baltic King colt is the first name on the team sheet here, knowing that a bit of draughty weather does not deter the three-year-old representative.  It’s interesting to note that David has employed the services of a seven pound claimer aboard the only junior representative in the field.  DOUBLE UP is feared most given the dry conditions on Wednesday which should bring (good) conditions into his favour, providing not too much dew is in evidence come sun up.  The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to DEMORA.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Nottingham programme.

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/1—Perfect Pasture (good)

1/1—Double Up (good to soft)

3/4--Demora (good – good to firm – good to soft)

2.30: Three of the four winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2 which eliminates the bottom four horses in the field if you take the brief stats literally.  The pick of the remaining seven contenders will hopefully prove to be APPLEBERRY and SILKEN SKIES.  I mentioned the possibility of overnight dew in the previous race and connections of the latter named Clive Cox raider will want that scenario to evolve.  The relevant claimer potentially drops the Zoffany representative into the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap but for once, I will bend the rules, with Clive Cox seemingly having found a decent opportunity for his junior raider.

Favourite factor: Two of the five market leaders (winners of their respective events at 11/4 & 13/8) have secured toteplacepot positions by winning their respective events via just four renewals.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/3—Pentax Lad (good)

1/4--Appleberry (soft)

1/1—New Road Side (soft)

3.00: BALLESTEROS and MERDON CASTLE make most appeal given the stats on offer, especially with so many apprentices taking mounts here which reduces the options to great effect if you take the weight trends seriously. BALLESTEROS turned back time the last day and it’s worth noting that the top weight has gained all seven victories outside of the summer months, June through August (inclusive). MERDON CASTLE represents Ruth Carr who has won with two of her last three runners at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same stats relating to weights and favourite trends apply.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2--Orient Class (good to firm)

1/4--Diamond Lady (good to firm)

1/3—Coiste Bodhar (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Nottingham card on Wednesday -  followed by 2016 stats at the track and profit/loss to level stakes:

6—Richard Guest (2/25 – loss of 11 points)

5—Richard Fahey – 8/44 – Profit of 18 points)

5—John Gosden (9/33 – Profit of 19)

4—Roger Varian (2/19 – Profit of 3 points)

3—Michael Appleby (5/46 – Profit of 20 points)

3—George Baker (0/6)

Your first 30 days for just £1

3—Tony Carroll (0/13)

3—Clive Cox (2/19 – loss of 8 points)

2—Alan Bailey (0/4)

2—Alan Balding (2/14 – loss of 2 points)

2—Rebecca Bastiman (1/3 – loss of 1 point)

2---Ralph Beckett (4/22 – Profit of 17 points)

2—Marco Botti (0/9)

2—David Brown (0/9)

2—Roger Charlton (2/10 – loss of 3 points)

2—Tim Easterby (0/7)

2—Ivan Furtado (0/13)

2—Simon Hodgson (---)

2—Steph Hollinshead (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

2—Adrian Paul Keatley (---)

2—Alan King (1/12 – loss of 8 points)

2—Sylvester Kirk (1/5 – loss of 3 points)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (1/5 – Profit of 8 points)

+ 48 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

110 declared runners

 

Nottingham overview - relating to their juvenile events at 12.20 – 12.50 – 1.20 - Record of represented trainers in the two-year-old sector at Nottingham this season:

12.20:

2/12—Richard Fahey (Rashford’s Double & Come On Percy)

0/1—George Baker (Tap Tap Boom)

1/9—Ralph Beckett (Cotinga)

0/3—Hugo Palmer (Ettihadi)

0/7—David Brown (Wigan Warrior)

1/3—Sylvester Kirk (Star Maker)

0/2—Tim Easterby (Ocelot)

0/1—Brendan Powell (Pheonix Dawn)

1/3—Clive Cox (Darkroom Angel)

0/1—Alan Bailey (Sassoferrato)

No runners—Robert Eddery (Charlie Chaplin)

No runners—Bill Turner (Crucial Moment)

0/1—Steph Hollinshead (She’s Rosanna)

12.50:

0/4—William Haggas (Alshibaa)

5/16—John Gosden (Crowned Eagle – Master Singer – Gracious Drama)

2/7—Roger Varian (Daira Prince)

2/9—Mark Johnston (Lorikeet)

No runners—John Mackie (Lunar Jet)

1/5—Luca Cumani (Medicean Dream)

1/3—Andrew Balding (Meyandi)

0/4—Alan King (Moans Cross)

0/5—Roger Charlton (Solar Cross)

0/4—Ed Walker (Tuff Rock)

0/1—Richard Spencer (Twiston Shout)

0/2—William Jarvis (Two Dollars)

0/3—Marco Botti (Zumurudee)

0/5—James Fanshawe (Incandescent)

2/7—James Given (Legalized)

1.20:

5/16—John Gosden (Almukala & Wasatch Range)

3/5—Saeed Bin Suroor (Big Challenge)

0/1—Hughie Morrison (Buzz)

0/3—Michael Bell (Dream Machine)

No runners—Henry Spiller (Eighth Circle)

1/3—Clive Cox (Mach One)

0/6—Charlie Hills (Marettimo)

0/1—William Muir (Niseko)

0/3—Marco Botti (Pirate Look)

0/4—Alan King (Royal Sunday)

No runners—Simon Hodgson (Seaborn)

2/7—Roger Varian (Shymkent & Zeelander)

0/5—Roger Charlton (Stone The Crows)

No runners—Ivan Furtado (Belisa)

1/9—Ralph Beckett (Melodic Motion)

 

 

Your first 30 days for just £1