NOTTINGHAM – OCTOBER 26
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £1,173.80 (6 favourites - No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham:
Leg 1 (1.50): 5 (Dhajeej), 3 (Azam) & 11 (Tartini)
Leg 2 (2.20): 12 (Youmkin) & 3 (Face The Facts)
Leg 3 (2.50): 11 (Stanley), 7 (Trinity Star) & 4 (Zealous)
Leg 4 (3.20): 2 (Zamoyski), 1 (Swaheen) & 3 (Bulas Belle)
Leg 5 (3.50): 2 (Parnell’s Dream), 3 (Forth Bridge) & 1 (Rideonastar)
Leg 6 (4.20): 1 (Sir Theodore) & 2 (Storm Melody)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: This maiden event is named after John Gosden’s great warrior Golden Horn who won this race as a juvenile before setting out on an incredible career at the highest level. John is doubly represented in heat one of the opening event with AZAM and TARTINI, though DHAJEEJ is a live danger, the Cape Cross raider having run well at the first time of asking.
Favourite factor: Five renewals have slipped by since the last (6/4) favourite obliged, whilst three of the last six market leaders have finished in the frame. Talking of market leaders, Golden Horn was not even sent off as favourite (a 15/8 chance) when scoring here back in 2014 on debut.
2.20: I have a feeling that this will be the stronger of the two divisions of this contest, with drums having been beating on behalf of the Godolphin yard of Saeed Bon Suroor regarding their Street Cry newcomer YOUMKIN. John Gosden saddles a seemingly nice type in FACE THE FACTS, whilst others to consider include SCALES OF JUSTICE and STEAMING.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event on the card whereby the same stat apply.
2.50: Five-year-olds have won three of the last five contests during which time, two 25/1 chances have scored. The last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-13 and putting the stats and facts together, a short list of STANLEY, TRINITY STAR and ZEALOUS emerges from the gloom in a race which should no prove difficult to win.
Favourite factor: Just two favourites have won this event during the last decade, with five renewals have passed by since the last successful market leader was recorded. The last five favourites have barely been sighted in all honesty (no Placepot positions gained).
Record of course winners in the third race:
1/2--Trinity Star (good to firm)
1/1—Stanley (good to soft)
3.20: All three winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-5 which potentially eliminates eight of the eleven runners taking jockey claims into account, leaving just three horses to assess. That said, the trio of thoroughbreds in question have plenty to do on the form book but as a self- confessed ‘anorak’, I will adhere to my own rules by suggesting that ZAMOYSKI, SWAHEEN and BULAS BELLE could outrun their odds. If the trends go base over apex this time around, COEUR DE LION could prove to be the joker in the pack.
Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites (via three renewals) have claimed Placepot positions by winning their respective events.
Record of course winners in the fourth event:
1/1—Duke Of Diamonds (good to firm)
3.50: We find ourselves in a similar position in the second division of the previous event though thankfully the trio that ‘qualify’ via the weight trend in this heat have more obvious chances, namely PARNELL’S DREAM, FORTH BRIDGE and RIDEONASTAR. The three horses are listed in order of preference.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card.
Record of course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
1/1—Pointel (good to soft)
1/4--Song Light (good to soft)
4.20: Three and four-year-olds have (equally) shared eight of the last ten renewals, with vintage representatives around the 8/15 mark to extend the good run this time around. SIR THEODORE would be quite a strong selection if plenty of dew got into the ground overnight (unfortunately there is no rain forecast to fall in the Nottingham area), though the top weight was beaten just half a length on good ground at Brighton on one occasion whereby the Arcano representative is the first name on my team sheet, shortly followed by STORM MELODY.
Favourite factor: Only one favourite has prevailed during the last eight years.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/4--Sir Theodore (soft)
2/8—Rusty Rocket (good to soft & soft)
1/2--Coiste Bodhar (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Nottingham card on Wednesday:
4 runners—John Gosden (8/29 at Nottingham this term – loss of 2 points)
3—Ralph Beckett (4/19 – Profit of 20 points)
3—Brian Ellison (1/14 – loss of 9 points)
3—Hughie Morrison (4/12 – Profit of 4 points)
2—Saeed Bin Suroor (2/4 – Profir of 1 point)
2—Julie Camacho (0/1)
2—Roger Charlton (2/8 – loss of 1 point)
2—Scott Dixon (2/14 – Profit of 17 points)
2—Michael Dods (0/3)
2—James Eustace (1/11 – loss of 8 points)
2—Richard Fahey (7/42 – Profit of 11 points)
2—James Fanshawe (4/12 – Profit of 5 points)
2—Ron Harris (no runners)
2—Alan King (3/25 – loss of 9 points)
2—Seamus Mullins (no runners)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (1/3 – Profit of 10 points)
2—Brendan Powell (1/3 – Profit of 4 points)
2—James Tate (0/1)
2—Joseph Tuite (0/4)
2—Roger Varian (2/17 – Profit of 5 points)
+ 63 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
108 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Fakenham: £170.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Chelmsford: £1,137.90 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Kempton (A/W): £91.60 – 6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced
Nottingham overview - relating to their juvenile events at 1.50 & 2.20 -
5 year record of represented trainers in the two-year-old sector:
7/25—Saeed Bin Suroor (Alaik)
0/6—William Jarvis (Arcadian Sea)
7/35—John Gosden (Azam & Tartini)
2/26—Ralph Beckett (Brimham Rocks)
3/24—Roger Varian (Dhajeej)
3/25—Michael Bell (Dream Machine)
3/15—Ed Walker (Garbanzo)
0/11—Rogwer Charlton (Leapt)
1/20—Sir Michael Stoute (Melting Den)
1/13—Hughie Morrison (Special Relation)
0/16—Sir Mark Prescott (Veiled Secret)
0/9—Brian Ellison (Bowban)
0/5—James Eustace (Envoy)
7/35—John Gosden (Face The Facts)
3/21—Andrew Balding (Itsakindamagic)
1/11—Alan King (Just In Time)
2/7—William Muir (Master Billie)
1/13—Hughie Morrison (Outcrop)
0/11—Roger Charlton (Pow Wow)
2/28—Charlie Hills (Scales Of Justice)
1/20—William Haggas (Solo Missile)
2/26—Ralph Beckett (Steaming)
7/25—Saeed Bin Suroor (Youmkin)