LUDLOW - OCTOBER 5
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £138.40 (8 favourites - 3 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow:
Leg 1 (2.10): 10 (Fool To Cry) & 9 (Jim Dandy)
Leg 2 (2.40): 2 (Templehills) & 4 (Ghost River)
Leg 3 (3.10): 1 (Set List), 6 (Azure Fly) & 2 (Kilbree Kid)
Leg 4 (3.40): 4 (Lilywhite Gesture), 3 (Nordic Nymph), 1 (Morning Herald) & 2 (Miss Mobot)
Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Pull The Chord) & 3 (Ascotdeux Nellerie)
Leg 6 (4.40): 2 (Bobbie Emerald), 5 (Orthadox Lad) & 9 (Goodwood Moonlight)
Suggested stake: 278 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: The only meeting this season at Ludlow produced a toteplacepot dividend of £9.40, with four of the seven favourites in the Placepot races having won, with the three other favourites finishing in the frame (exact science). The eighth favourite in the seventh event also won for good measure. Whether we will be as well blessed on Wednesday remains to be seen, though beaten favourite JIM DANDY looks sure to be given another chance by plenty of punters from my viewpoint. A winner of one of his seven assignments on the level at Salisbury, Alan King’s representative needs to sharpen up his hurdling to snare gold. If that improvement fails to materialise, the main benefactors should prove to be FOOL TO CRY and AHRAAM.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won via the last thirteen contests, during which time four gold medallists have scored at 25/1-25/1-20/1-11/1. Only five of the 12 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.
2.40: Nigel Twiston-Davies announced on Tuesday that his top class hurdler The New One is going chasing this season which should illuminate the novice sector over the bigger obstacles. In the meantime, the trainer should greet another winner having declared his recent Uttoxeter winner TEMPLEHILLS. With a ten pound claimer in the plate, Nigel’s Kalanisi raider should not be hard pressed to double up in this grade/company. The weights and measures involved suggest that GHOST RIVER is the main threat in the contest.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/7 market leader duly obliged before last year’s 5/4 market leader found one too good in a ‘win only’ contest.
3.10: Seven-year-olds have (maybe coincidentally) won all three renewals but whatever your thoughts relating to vintage matters, SET LIST appears to be the clear pick of the two relevant declarations. Emma Lavelle boasts a 36% strike rate via nine winners since the end of June whereby SET LIST is the first name on the team sheet in the third leg of our favourite wager. Last year’s winner AZURE FLY might offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings, possibly alongside KILBREE KID.
Record of course winners in the third event:
1/3--Kilbree Kid (good)
1/2--Azure Fly (good)
Favourite factor: All three (7/4-15/8-7/2) favourites have won thus far.
3.40: Seven of the nine available Placepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying a maximum burden of 11-2, statistics which include all three (8/1-13/2-9/2) winners. I feel obliged to include all four runners in my Placepot permutation in this event, especially as handicap hurdle events over a distance of ground have long since offered the worst favourite stats in all aspects of the sport, under either code! The two horses which qualify via the weight trend are LILYWHITE GESTURE and NORDIC NYMPH though equally, it’s desperately difficult to leave MORNING HERALD and MISS MOBOT out of the equation. Evan Williams has saddled all three winners of this event; hence the ‘overview’ comment at the foot of the analysis.
Favourite factor: One of the 7/2 inaugural joint favourites finished in the frame without winning in a short field race in 2013, whilst the next 9/4 market leader scraped into the frame via a bronze medal effort in a 'dead eight' contest. Two of the three co favourites twelve months ago finished in the money without claiming gold.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/3--Morning Herald (good)
4.10: Six-year-olds have won all three renewals and both of this year’s vintage representatives hold realistic claims, namely PULL THE CHORD and ASCOTDEUX NELLERIE. The pair are listed in order of preference at the time of writing, whilst offering MASTER DEE as the main danger.
Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites to date has finished in the frame, without winning the relevant contest.
Record of the course winner in the fifth race:
2/3--Ascotdeux Nellerie (2 x good)
4.40: Securing two medals of each colour via fourteen assignments thus far, BOBBLE EMERALD (1/1 at this venue) last won here at Ludlow and if returning to form of old, Martin Keighley’s eight year-old would take plenty of kicking out of the frame. Others to consider in an interesting Placepot finale include ORTHODOX LAD and GOODWOOD MOONLIGHT. The jury is out for David Bridgwater’s recent winner Tempuran as the seven time winner has yet to post back to back victories for all his ability.
Favourite factor: Search parties are still out looking for the inaugural beaten (15/8) favourite, though last year’s successful 11/4 market leader balanced up the books.
Record of course winners in the 'lucky last':
1/1--Bobbie Emerald (good to soft)
1/2--Frozen Over (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ludlow card on Wednesday:
3—Peter Bowen (No previous runners at Ludlow this season)
3—Jonjo O’Neill (0/1)
2—Grace Harris (---)
2—Philip Hobbs (1/2 – Profit of 1 point to level stakes)
2—Martin Keighley (0/2)
2—Sophie Leech (0/1)
2—Charlie Longsdon (---)
2—Fergal O’Brien (---)
2—John O’Shea (---)
2—Matt Shepherd (---)
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
50 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Nottingham: £76.50 – 8 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Towcester: £61.90 – 6 favourties – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Kempton (A/W) – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Ludlow overview – It’s disappointing that Evan Williams has not entered any of his six four day declarations, given that Evan is invariably the trainer to follow at this venue, especially at this corresponding meeting down the years.