SALISBURY - SEPTEMBER 28
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £24.60 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury:
Leg 1 (1.50): 10 (Dance Teacher) & 8 (Parfait)
Leg 2 (2.20): 12 (Sable Island), 13 (Eula Varner) & 9 (Mr Tyrrell)
Leg 3 (2.50): 1 (Eqtiraan) & 4 (Bahamadam)
Leg 4 (3.20): 5 (Hope Cove), 4 (Alizoom) & 7 (Foresight)
Leg 5 (3.55): 6 (Landwade Lad), 7 (Zamperini) & 8 (Fidaawy)
Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Bellajeu) & 3 (Onorina)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: DANCE TEACHER ran well on her first day at school but perhaps Ralph Beckett was flying a little too high when taking in the ‘Convivial’ at York though to be fair to the trainer, the April foal was only an 11/1 chance on the day whereby this drop in grade gives Pat Dobbs a chance of riding another winner. Beaten favourite PARFAIT is probably worth another chance.
Favourite factor: The inaugural favourites in last year’s ‘split’ divisions finish first and fourth, securing one Placepot position between them.
2.20: SABLE ISLAND has been well placed by Sir Michael Stoute to figure prominently in a race which should not prove difficult it win. Certainly, the first division looks to be the stronger contest. Michael’s New Approach raider will certainly figure in my Placepot mix, possibly alongside the likes of EULA VARNER, MR TYRRELL and KOEMAN.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous event on Salisbury's programme.
2.50: Helmet stock looked like they were going to take the world by storm at the start of the season but winners have been diluted down the months (as is usually the case), though his son EQTIRAAN has definite claims here, especially as Richard Hannon has secured gold and silver medals in the last two renewals of this event. BAHAMADAM scored at the first time of asking and I believe there is another race in him as a juvenile, though whether it is this one remains to be seen.
Favourite factor: Ten favourites have won during the last 19 years, whilst market leaders have a very record from a toteplacepot perspective during the study period, even though three of the last four ‘jollies’ have finished out with the washing.
3.20: Three-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals, whilst vintage representatives have claimed six of the last nine available Placepot positions via 39.5% of the total number of runners. Six of the last seven winners carried a minimum burden of 9-1 and puting the facts and stats together, HOPE COVE, ALIZOOM and FORESIGHT stand out (to a fashion) from the crowd.
Favourite factor: Market leaders were only conspicuous by their absence in terms of winners of this race during the last decade, whilst just four of the ten favourites favourites secured Placepot positions. Indeed, five of the relevant ten gold medallists during the study period were returned in double figures, ranging between 11/1 & 20/1.
3.55: Whilst three renewals hardly constitutes towards a trend as such, it's still worth noting that four-year-olds have secured five of the available seven toteplacepot positions thus far, with vintage representatives having won the relevant events at 7/4*-4/1-4/1. To put icing on the cake, I should report that just ten vintage representatives have contested the race via an aggregate of 23 runners (43.4% of the collective fields). Three of Wednesday's nine declarations represent the 'superior' vintage this time around, the pick of which should prove to be LANDWADE LAD and ZAMPERINI. Three-year-old FIDAAWY is the potential joker in the pack according to the gospel of yours truly.
Favourite factor: The three renewals to date have produced one successful (7/4) favourite, two of the three market leaders have secured Placepot positions.
4.30: Four-year-olds have won five of the last ten contests, all of which were secured by horses carrying 9-3 or more. BELLAJEU and ONORINA possess ticks in both boxes, with OCTOBER STORM offered the overnight reserve nomination ahead of MISS TIGER LILY.
Favourite factor: Four of the last eight favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include three (7/2-3/1-5/2) winners.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
All my stats are bases on an exact science in terms of placed horses – 3rd placed horses in 5/6/7 runner events are deemed as ‘unplaced’ accordingly etc., etc.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Salisbury card on Wednesday:
5—Eve Johnson Houghton (0/10 at Salisbury this season)
4---Mick Channon (2/27 – loss of 17 points to level stakes)
4—Richard Hannon (5/67 – loss of 38 points)
3—Andrew Balding (8/40 – loss of 4 points)
3—Ralph Beckett (5/25 – loss of 4 points)
3—Henry Candy (3/23 – loss of 6 points)
3—Harry Dunlop (2/12 – Profit of 10 points)
3—Sir Michael Stoute (5/14 – Profit of 10 points)
3—Ed Walker (1/3 – Profit of 9 points)
2—David Evans (4/23 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Richard Hughes (1/18 – loss of 16 points)
2—William Knight (1/11 – Profit of 15 points)
2—David Menuisier (0/7)
2—Rod Millman (1/29 – loss of 25 points)
2—Amanda Perrett (1/12 – loss of 9 points)
2—David Simcock (1/8 – loss of 6 points)
2—Roger Varian (3/10 – Profit of 15 points)
+27 trainers with one entry
74 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Nottingham: £126.80 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Bangor: £291.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Kempton (A/W): £353.40 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Salisbury overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant two-year-old events:
1/9—Roger Varian (Ajman King)
2/5—Hugo Palmer (Anything Today)
0/8—Richard Hughes (Caspian Gold)
2/32—Eve Johnson Houghton (Desert Explorer)
0/1—David Menuisier (Make Time)
No runners—Peter Hedger (Mr Mac)
1/12—Amanda Perrett (Open Wide)
2/10—John Gosden (Parfait)
2/25—Sir Michael Stoute (Swiftsure)
7/53—Ralph Beckett (Dance Teacher)
27/121—Richard Hannon (Limelite)
3/25—Henry Candy (Medicean Ballet & Sixth June)
0/13—Hughie Morrison (Beaconsfield)
7/53—Ralph Beckett (Brimham (Rocks)
0/8—Richard Hughes (Clemento)
1/9—Joseph Tuite (Conkering Hero)
2/32—Eve Johnson Houghton (Delannoy)
3/15—William Knight (Hajjam)
0/6—Ed Walker (Hernandee)
3/60—Mick Channon (Koeman)
27/121—Richard Hannon (Mr Tyrrell)
8/48—Andrew Balding (Mucho Applause)
2/35—Charlie Hills (Redgrave)
2/25—Sir Michael Stoute (Sable Island)
3/25—Henry Candy (Eula Varner)
1/2--Philip Hide (Paco Dawn)
27/121—Richard Hannon (Eqtiraan)
8/48—Andrew Blading (Scorching Heat)
7/54—David Evans (Smokey Lane)
2/32—Eve Johnson Houghton (Bahadam)
3/60—Mick Channon (Shawami)