Prix Marcel Boussac 2013 Preview / Tips

Prix Marcel Boussac 2013 Preview / Tips

Lesstalk for Jean-Claude in Paris Marcel Boussac?

Lesstalk for Jean-Claude inParis Marcel Boussac?

The Marcel Boussac is one of the pre-eminent juvenile filly races, a Group 1 run over a mile. All bar one of the the last twelve winners were either first or second in at least one Group 1 subsequently - the exception, Rumplestiltskin, only racing once after her Boussac victory.

A few unifying themes in this one, namely:

- All of the last eleven Marcel Boussac winners had won within their first two starts, and all had run within 45 days

- Nine of the last eleven Marcel Boussac winners won their prior start

- Four of the last eight Marcel Boussac winners were trained in UK (one) or Ireland (three)

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It may or may not be significant then, that Sandiva, the leading overseas raider, has been off the track for fifty days. Charlie Appleby's Majeyda, beaten in a Group 2 last time, also fails this profile test, as do Likelihood, Wonderfully, Queen Catrine, and Illuminating Dream. Put another way, not one of the raiding party passes these criteria.

Sandiva is the closest and five days may be neither here nor there if her form stacks up. We'll see about that momentarily.

The home guard is not without its weaknesses either against the checklist, with Kenzadargent, Marbre Rose, Testina, Stormyra, Princess Bavaroise, Stellar Path and Indonesienne all failing one or more of these.

Clearly, it would have been easier to outline that just Veda, Lesstalkinparis, and Royalmania ticked the boxes!

Royalmania is favoured after two wins in two starts, the more recent a soft ground conditions stakes. That form doesn't amount to a great deal and, while she is a filly of vast potential, she has yet to show pattern class ability, let alone Group 1 winning talent. That's not to say she can't, merely to highlight the absence of value in a price of 7/4.

Lesstalkinparis is a 4/1 shot, and she won a Group 3 last time - the second win in her two run career. She had a troubled passage there and it was testament to her ability that she was still able to win when the gap finally came. She has better form in the book, and is more obviously better than the bare level of that. The ground looks fine for her, and she's a far better value proposition in my view than the favourite.

Hoku has been supplemented for this and, given the prohibitive cost of doing so, that may be a tip in itself. It's certainly a pointer to the well-being of this young filly, who has improved throughout the season and was an unlucky second last time in a Group 3 at Ayr. That's bold leap from there to here, up two grades and two furlongs. Ultimately, it may simply be that the owner, Sheikh Suhaim Al Thani, one of the Qatari money men, wants a horse running in one of the races sponsored by his nation.

Most likely winner: Royalmania 7/4 Paddy
Best value: Lesstalkinparis 4/1 Paddy

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