Punting Carnage…

Yesterday, dear reader, goes down in the annals as one of my worst day's betting ever. It was coming, in fairness, but still I'm smarting from the numerous bruises incurred.

It all started when my beloved Laying System, which has been performing to stellar levels this month, had it's long anticipated 'correction', or losing run. And how!

Having been over 49points up on the month, yesterday saw 21.5 of those points evaporate in several puffs of smoke and, more specifically, clicks of my mouse.

It helps at times like these to see the perspective: the service remains 27 points up in April, and over 65 points up overall (since November last year). So, not disastrous, but still pretty painful.

This was followed by Go Native's abysmal show. Having felt that he was a good thing to be in the first two (either in front of or just behind Hurricane Fly), I backed him accordingly. Fourth can only be described as disappointing.

It should be said that the gallop was pedestrian (the subsequent handicap hurdle was run faster) and this certainly would not have helped the Native, who cruised off the usual breakneck pace when winning at Cheltenham. However, it would have been against the Fly too, and he positively cantered to the lead and quickened readily away.

I was extremely taken with the winner and, whilst I certainly won't be troubling any of those generous bookie types offering 5/1 about him winning next year's Champion Hurdle (I'd want that price on him getting there in one piece!), he looks the one to beat in the hurdling Blue Riband come next March.

Next up in my day of punting woes was Master Minded vs. Big Zeb. Now it's true that I wasn't into Big Zeb for Big Money, but nevertheless the nature of his defeat hurt. He had rallied against a clearly toiling Master Minded, and came to win the race at the last. As is his style though, Zeb decided that the quickest route between two points is a straight line, and proceeded to amble directly through the last obstacle rather than over it.

That he didn't fall was a miracle in itself. That he rallied to be beaten just a head was insult to injury. With a fluent jump at the last Zeb would unquestionably have won.

This proves to me two things:

1. Zeb needs to go to Yogi Breisner or Harvey Smith, or someone who can show him how to jump a fecking fence

2. Master Minded patently does not want it soft.

Onwards and downwards we go, for in the last I was confident that Cooldine would win the Novices Grade 1 Chase. Alas, the odds on favourite was never really travelling, and again its possible that the slow gallop did for him. No matter what did for him, it did for more of my money too (I was chasing at this point).

******

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Those six asterisks mark the line I've drawn under yesterday. To today, and more Punchy action. Also Ascot.

The feature at Ascot is the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes, run over 2 miles. There's six going to post, and it promises to be a bit of a lollop for the first mile and six furlongs. Patkai is the odds on favourite, but is a four year old. A 4yo was beaten at 11/8 in the race in 2007, another 4yo favourite was beaten in 2005 at 9/4, and another 4yo fav was rolled in 2003 at 11/4.

It seems that the merit of 4yo's chances in this race is somewhat overrated, and it may also be that their strength may not match that of older horses at this early stage of the season. Somewhat contrary to that is the fact that French 4yo Risk Seeker did win the race a few years ago.

All of which means I don't know who will win, but I'm going to be against Patkai at 8/13.

Back to Punchestown for day two of the great end of season boozefest. Today's feature race is the Guinness Gold Cup at 6.05.

Twelve runners go to post, and they've 25 furlongs to travel before the lollypop will greet them, weary and victorious / vanquished.

Age seems to be the biggest factor in this race, with 15 of the last 18 winners being 6-8 years old, and the last five all being 8 or younger. This alone eliminates seven of the dozen starters, leaving us with 'just' Air Force One, Albertas Run, Imperial Commander, Notre Pere and Scotsirish.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the strongest form race, with six of the last seven winners having contested that heat. This leaves us with just two: Air Force One and Albertas Run.

I'll split my stake on the pair of them, at 14/1 and 11/1 respectively. A note from the early betting is the strength of Notre Pere, who has been backed with pretty much every firm.

Earlier on the card, a potential superstar is unleashed again. Dunguib is the name of this bumper horse, who absolutely 'mullered' the field at Cheltenham in the Champion Bumper there. There's some very good and unexposed animals in this race, and I won't be pulling on my odds-on boots again, but I sorely hope he wins, as he looks the real deal.

Best of luck whatever you're on today.

Matt

12 replies
  1. mattgiffin says:

    matt

    i must warn you about laying horses i am good with maths, i can see that you need 10 winning horses for every one losing to break even with odds of 10/1 and above…….thats a shocking statistic……..i like to know the risk and laying is risky i have had 1000/1 on betfair which have gone on to win at around 50/1 later in the day imagine that laying a horse at 1000/1 and it won that would damage the biggest of banks……

    my advise is use your lay system along side a good back system spread the risk around abit

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Matt, it’s not as simple as that, as I hope you know.
      A 10/1 shot is not the same as a 10/1 shot, if you see what I mean. Basically if a horse under certain conditions is proven to have a true statistical chance of 1 in 20 (i.e. only one in twenty of such horses win), would you take it on if you could lay it at 14 on betfair. I would all day long.

      The same with Patkai today. Sure the horse won at 2/5, but I’ll lay what I consider to be statistical advantages to me happily.
      Finally, with Princess Taylor just being beaten a nose (shorter than a short head!), my luck really is well and truly out.
      But, by not changing my approach, and following the same statistical tacks, my luck will soon return, as will the good times.

      Cheers,
      Matt

  2. Randolph says:

    Dear Matt,

    Sorry to hear you had a bad day, we know that these days are hiding just around the corner. But to cheer you up you have brought a lot of smiles to happy punters face with your successful Laying system, and I would like to thank you very very much. So pick yourself up dust yourself down and lets go for it.

    Thanks

    Randolph

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks Randolph for the kind words. I’ve received lots of emails of support from happy customers, and I know we’re well in front.

      It’s actually surprised me in a very pleasant way to see how educated and disciplined Laying System members are.

      Best,
      Matt

  3. hardraysnight says:

    so what proportion of ‘luck versus skill’ is required to be successful

    my grandfather told me you make your own luck. i think hes right

  4. click says:

    hi matt, personally i don’t believe in good or bad luck. my vote goes to swings and roundabouts. in the last two days we have lost two races by a nose, taste of honey yesterday and princess taylor today. may i suggest we back horses with bigger noses.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      If you’d seen the size of my nose, click, you’d wish I was a race horse! (But, in seriousness, I share your sentiment).

      TTS, which finishes tomorrow, has had a difficult season. But an 11/1 winner today from two selections means we’ll finish up about 55 points on the jumps season. Which, of course, is not too shabby. The flat goodness is to follow, for sure…

      Matt

  5. Jack Crompton says:

    Dear Matt
    It’s very simple.
    Enjoy the Grand National.
    Go to bed.
    Get up for the Guineas weekend.
    Or, better still, the York May meeting.
    Then go into full gear.
    Believe me, I’ve been around.
    Jack

  6. tom says:

    up 55 points for the jumps season after all the work you put into it ?…you said you lost 21 points yesterday for example..
    id say stick to the day job!!

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Dear Tom

      55 points for eight months may not seem like a lot, but answer this question honestly: when was the last time you used ANY system and made money over the course of a season? That product, TrainerTrackStats, is recording its third straight season in profit.

      The other product, Laying System, which lost 21 points the other day, is currently showing 71 points profit since November.

      Collectively then, that’s two WINNING systems, and 126 points profit since September. Are you £12,600 up on your betting since then?

      We deal in reality here Tom, and that means trying to stay in front and win a few quid. If want alchemy I’m afraid you are on the wrong website. 😉

      Matt

  7. mattgiffin says:

    have we come to the stage where you need people to sign a disclaimer before we give them racing tips,

    some people are just to rude matt works very hard an so far has given me some very profitable tips

    keep it up matt

  8. george says:

    ive been around an awful long time, and believe me no matter what value you put a point at, your results are pretty good matt, i follow many a system and methods and there are not many that show a consistent profit over time, i dont believe in luck but as someone said earlier in swings and roundabouts, which i suppose is quite similar to luck, you have to take the knocks in this game and i like your attitude matt, accept the bad days that have to come along and prepare well for the next battle and good on you for encouraging an open debate on your performance, most system owners go into there bunkers when things go sour and only resurface when things pick up,im sure you will have many more good days than the odd bad one. keep up the good work matt

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