I received an email today, dear reader, about a system called Quantum Betting, which apparently is going to allow me to "put Â£18,431.36 in my pocket from just one single bet".
Naturally, my interest was piqued and of course my bulls**t detector was working on overdrive. I read on in the sales letter, and was told that I'd "finally be able to quit [my] limiting job and live life on [my] terms". Sounded too good to be true? Could Quantum Betting really be the answer to my prayers (and those of a million others)?
Well, obviously, no. It is a scam. A sales page so full of lies as to be almost a caricature. It is grotesque, and if you have fallen for this, then firstly I'm sorry and in a minute I'll tell you what to do. But secondly, STOP. PULL YOURSELF TOGETHER! Get Real!
I occasionally write this here, and I make no apology for writing it again...
THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A GOLDEN GOOSE BETTING SYSTEM.
I repeat, there is no such thing as a golden goose betting system.
My own systems and services are sold as 'portfolio systems'. That is, if you are disciplined and follow them sensibly, using the recommended bank, you will make a small to medium profit with them. If you have a group of such systems / services, you have a chance to make a second income. Possibly. Perhaps. Maybe.
But you shouldn't think like that. Betting should be fun. It should be for entertainment purposes only. And it should aim to put a couple of quid in, or to take a couple of quid out, of your pocket. In 99% of cases, that should be that.
If you still have delusions of quitting the day job by buying a Â£27 ebook, then - forgive me - but you're an idiot. I hope that doesn't offend too many people for two reasons.
1. I don't believe many people actually do believe the above, and
2. If you do, then you probably already know what I've just said to be true! 😉
OK, back to the Quantum Betting System which, in fairness, could have been any of a thousand useless pdf's masquerading as life-changing pension plans.
It is brief, weighing in as it does at ONE page (!). No graphics, no flim flam, just straight to the point. I'm actually fine with that. If you need to learn how to use Betfair, go to Betfair and use their excellent help functions. Or click here for the same: http://help.betfair.com/faq/index.en.html
It has been created using Adrian Massey's website. Again, I have no objection to that per se, either.
But here's the problem...
It just doesn't do what it says it does. Here are the results for this system (easily back checkable using the same tool):
Results broken down by Year
Bets Â Â Â Wins Â Â Â Win Strike Rate Â Â Â Win %Return at Estimated Betfair Odds
2007Â Â Â 372Â Â Â 112Â Â Â 30.1%Â Â Â 108.8%
2008Â Â Â 432Â Â Â 116Â Â Â 26.9%Â Â Â 93.9%
2009Â Â Â 527Â Â Â 126Â Â Â 23.9%Â Â Â 84.8%
2010Â Â Â 186Â Â Â 52Â Â Â 28.0%Â Â Â 98.4%
The last column is the material one. It is the estimated return at Betfair SP. As this is a laying system, we're looking for a number less than 100%. And we get it... just about.
Factor in commission, and you might just break even. Or you might lose a bit of money.
But next let's consider the rules, and the logic behind them. There is a rule about number of runners, and another about going. Both of these choose convenient ranges with no obvious reason for them.
Every rule in a system should have logic supporting it. It should be possible to say, in advance, "I believe x to be the case, and I am going to look at the numbers to see if they support that notion".
If there is no logic, there is back-fitting. Coincidence. And a good chance that history will NOT repeat itself.
Quantum Betting is not very good, nor in fairness is it terrible. It is far from the worst betting system I've seen. But the email for it appeared in my inbox - unsolicited naturally enough - today, so I bought it and made an example of it.
It costs Â£27, and it promises that you'll be able to quit your job and make over Â£18,000 from a single bet. Who reading this actually believes that could be possible?
If a portfolio system costs Â£57 and offers to add to your betting enjoyment and put a FEW quid in your pocket... and if you follow that system and you save a FEW quid you'd otherwise have lost... then great. If you can find two or three of these, and use them in unison - as a portfolio - then so much the better.
Good runs will come, and bad runs will go, and your portfolio will - overall - see you out in front. Maybe. If you choose wisely (or are lucky).
[In the interests of total transparency, I should say at this point that my own Ready2Win system is currently showing a loss. At 3.23 points, and coming as it does off the back of one of the worst runs in TEN YEARS, I'm actually reassured rather than concerned by that. It's a classic portfolio system and, together with a couple of others, forms the backbone of my betting portfolio. I'll share the others in a coming post.]
So, here is my advice:
1. Be naturally cautious, and ask questions.
2. If it seems (way) to good to be true, you'd be daft to believe it was true.
3. Don't be daft!
4. You can always get a refund from Clickbank, by emailing firstname.lastname@example.org with your receipt number.
5. Read reputable blog review sites (such as this one).
I'm conscious that the above may be considered sanctimonious and I've no desire to be the 'law' on such matters, so please feel free to find your own way in the betting system jungle. But, obvious as the above suggestions sound, you may find you've fallen foul of one or more of them.
Don't feel bad. Just try very hard not to let it happen again. (Again, for disclosure purposes, I've lost count of the number of crap systems I bought in my early years. I was addicted to them, and their crapness fueled my hunger for more of them).
Quantum Betting System? It's not a scam, but it's no good either.
p.s. what systems or services are you interested in having reviewed? Or what have you bought that's no good recently? Leave a comment and let others know. There will be more review action on here in coming months, so tell me what you're interested in.