Race of the Day - 16:20 Wolverhampton
This is a tricky looking handicap being run over nine furlongs on the all weather surface at Wolverhampton.
Lord Murphy has been running very consistently of late, with two wins and two second placed finishes in his last four races. He has crept up the weights because of this, and will have to cope with a further five pound rise here today. He does have Adam Kirby on board, which is always a plus given his all weather record.
Kafeel is trained by Gary Moore, who has been in very good form recently. Over the past 14 days he's had four winners (21.05%) and six places (31.58%) from 19 runners, for level stakes profits of 31.50 and 33.00.
The Instant Expert report is available to all users for every race on a Thursday, and it shows that Lord Murphy is very suited by today's racing conditions. He has three sections of green (including being 2/4 here at Wolverhampton) and two sections of amber. He clearly likes racing at this track and if he can find a bit more improvement, to cope with another rise in the weights, then he could be tough to beat.
Caribbean Spring has two sections of green and two of amber, however he is another that was hit with a loftier handicap due to a win on his penultimate start, and will need to be at his very best to get involved in this.
Early leaders here over this distance have the best record when looking at the Pace report, with 15.19% of them going on to win the race. However, this is for quite a large level stakes loss, therefore it is not as much of an advantage as it is at other courses.
Outlaw Torn always likes to be very handy and it appears likely that he will be leading them along through the first couple of furlongs if he can get out of stall nine quickly enough.
A lot of the field like to be held up, so they will need to be careful with how much of a lead they give Dougie Costello on Outlaw Torn, as he could easily get away from the rest of the field, if they let him.
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