Race of the Day – 12 Oct

Race of the Day - 13:50 Worcester

Copper Kay makes The Shortlist today in a mares' novices' chase at Worcester with a decent score of 12, having four sections of green. The only section that she doesn't have green is due to not having run here at Worcester before.

This will be Copper Kay's first race of this national hunt season, however, she was in brilliantly consistent form last term with two wins, three seconds and a third from her last six races.

Both of those wins came over 19 furlongs, but she has also looked at home over 21 furlongs, therefore, today's distance is absolutely fine and she acts well on good ground.

She achieved a mark of 135 as a hurdler which is useful enough and I am hopeful that this Kayf Tara mare will take to the larger obstacles.

When expanding the trainer form from the racecard is shows us that Phillip Hobbs has an extremely good strike rate here at Worcester, as over the last year he is 8/27 (29.63%) for an Impact Value of 2.51, meaning he is more than two and a half times likely than average to have the winner.

He has also shown himself to be adept at readying a horse after a break, where his runners that haven't run for at least 60 days have produced an Impact Value of 2.14.

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The Instant Expert report shows how well suited by conditions here today Copper Kay is, and the lack of course form doesn't go down as an issue as it is the same for the majority of the field, and the three horses that have run here previously don't have a winner between them.

Early leaders here over this distance have a great record with 20.83% of them going on to win the race for a level stakes profit of 2.60 and an Impact Value of 1.68.

Sparkling River looks the most likely to be leading them along based on the respective pace scores, however, he looks a level below some of his rivals in this and I suspect they will be lining up behind him waiting for their chance.

One of these runners may well be Copper Kay as Johnson usually keeps him in mid-division and I would guess he will do the same again with him here.

This is an open novices' chase with some nice hurdlers tackling fences for the first time. Copper Kay is one of these and I am hoping that he takes to fences well and continues on her impressive form from last season.

Click here for the 13:50 at Worcester.

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