Race of the Day, 13th July 2016

Race of the Day - 18:05 Sandown

Race of the Day_130716

This is a five furlong dash at Sandown Park and it is a race with a very open look to it.

Something that immediately stands out to me, is that William Haggas has excellent overall form at this course. The green characters below his name, 14, 30 and c5, represent good form over the past 14 days, the past 30 days and the past five years. In fact he has a win percentage of over 23% and a place record of 45% from the past five years, returning £15.76 for each £1 stake on win only. This is a fantastic record and one to definitely take note of.

His runner today, Olympic Runner, is also second highest on the Speed Ratings column on the far right hand side of the page. Interestingly however, Stormflower is a long way clear on the Speed Ratings, at 105 compared with the next best at 87.

TC

If you are new to the Geegeez racecards, one of the aspects you may not have seen, or taken notice of before, is the Trainer Change report. Next to the horse name Bint Aldar, are the letters TC. This indicates that the horse is running for this trainer for the first time today. If you click on the TC, then a separate report is generated showing trainers that fit this criteria on the given days racing. Bint Aldar is trained by Robert Cowell and from the above report, which I have chosen to include the last two years, he has a pretty respectable record when inheriting horses from another stable on their first run. In the past two years he has had five winners and nine placed horses from 27 runners with a win percentage approaching 20% and is actually in profit to level stakes for win only.

This is an excellent tool at finding horses that may be overpriced due to poor performances for their previous trainer but have now been invigorated in their new environment.

Sand Inst Exp_130716

Switching now to the Instant Expert tab, it shows us that none of today's runners have previously raced here.

If we use this tab with the place view (top left) then there is a nice line of green for Just Glamorous, showing that he has been very consistent under today's race conditions so far in his relatively short career. Point of Woods also shows up quite well with either green or amber.

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Pace_130716

Pace can be crucial with a five furlong dash such as this, and from the above report it is clear that is pays to be at the head of the field. A point to note is that horses in mid division have also fared reasonably well, therefore if a runner is ticking a lot of boxes and isn't a pace setter, don't automatically discount it.

Draw_130716

Low drawn numbers have traditionally done well in sprints at Sandown and although it isn't a particularly large sample size to draw any concrete conclusions from, horses that were drawn low and led have a very positive win P & L.

FF_130716

A final point I wanted to highlight on this race, was the use of the Full Form filter. When looking at Bint Aldar's previous races we can see that he has actually performed very respectively in four of his five races to date, it was only when he was upped to seven furlongs in a valuable Class 2 race at Doncaster that he get found out.

He also appears to be at home racing over six furlongs which is very important at a course like Sandown. The five furlong course runs down the centre of the track and it is uphill for the majority of those five furlongs. Therefore an ability to see out the extra distance is imperative to last all the way to the finish line.

In a very open looking contest, Bint Aldar runs for a trainer who has a good record with horses switching to his yard, has been successful in better company than today and likes to be at the head of the field from the off. Therefore his price of 10/1 feels a little inflated to me and could give us a good run for our money.

 

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4 replies
  1. jethro says:

    Hi Steven
    Very good read and a sound start yesterday for e/w backers – I for one will be very interested to follow your progress on this over time.
    Matt – Could the new daily, “Race of the Day” article be added to the drop down list in the Tips section along with SotD and Placepot Pointers etc?
    Cheers…

  2. Chris Worrall says:

    Great opening salvo yesterday, Steven. You talked us all through the tools brilliantly and came very close to providing us all with a winner, beaten only by one I’d never have picked, even if I was still looking at that card.

    My view is that RotD is a learning tool for us all and shouldn’t be viewed as a tipping piece, although I’ve no doubt you’ll land plenty of winners.

  3. Steven Oliver says:

    Thanks a lot Jethro and Chris.

    Expanding on what Chris has pointed out, although it is nice to settle on a particular horse after pointing out a few things in its favour by using the Gold tools, this is not so much a tipping service as a way of showcasing in detail the different ways of making selections with the huge variety of tools we have at our disposal.

  4. jethro says:

    Hi guys,
    I take your point above Chris, however my reasoning on adding RotD to the Tips section, is that it is easier to pick up on how Steven has been getting along with this if I am away for a week, as all of his previous weeks analysis will be contained in one place on the Geegeez website.
    Whether or not Geegeez subscribers follow Steven’s personal evaluation each day by backing the horse he leans towards, is entirely up to each individual. If he does well however, I might be inclined to back the horse blind each day in the same way as I do with SotD… (Which by the way seems to be on the up once again – well done with two winners in three days Chris – only undone by the track conditions yesterday too me thinks!)

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