Race of the Day - 18:10 Epsom
A wide open one mile and and bit Class 5 apprentice handicap at Epsom that although will take some doing to find the winner, I think we can point towards a bit of value here.
Just eleven pounds separate the entire field on official ratings, however the Geegeez Speed Ratings paint a entirely different picture. Wordismybond and Uncle Dermot are quite a long way clear than almost the entire field.
Epsom is a unique track and any kind of course form is a massive plus when looking for that slight edge. Very few of these runners today have raced at this course, however Zaria won here last time out over a similar distance and a little softer conditions. That was her only run at the course but it has to be a confidence booster. She is also the third highest on the Speed Rating and just about within touching distance of the previously mentioned two.
Uncle Dermot was a well beaten third in that same race at Epsom, but is better off at the weights this time around so it will be interesting to see if he can turn the tables. It should also be noted that he wasn't particularly happy that day and was taken down to the start very early on.
On first glance of the pace tab there is no real discernible advantage until it's looked at in conjunction with the draw tab. Although the data set isn't large there is a distinct advantage to being drawn low and either leading the race or prominent. The other green on the heat map is being drawn high and held up.
Wordismybond is drawn in stall one and is the likely pace setter. Given that he is also the top rated on the speed ratings I think a price of 11/2 offers a little bit of value in a fiendishly difficult race to crack. His last run was over too far and in soft conditions. The drying ground is a definite plus and I think it will be pushing good to firm in places by the time the racing starts which is in his favour as a lot of his best form has been with conditions on the firmer side of good.