Race of the Day - 15:40 Newbury
This is a wide open one mile handicap at Newbury, with some useful looking horses that are on the upgrade.
Kingston Kurrajong is one of the outsiders in the field at 16/1, however he is the highest on the Speed Ratings. He jockey, Jim Crowely, also has a good record here at Newbury. Over the past year he's had seven winners (23.33%) and 15 places (50.00%) from 30 runners, for level stakes profits of 25.13 and 37.89 respectively.
Kestrel Dot Com was a winner in his last race on turf (he was unplaced on the all weather last time out), and a return to similar conditions to that win could see him go well again here today. His trainer, Chris Dwyer, has a particularly good record with his horses in handicap races. He's had 51 winners (16.09%) and 107 places (33.75%) from 317 runners, for level stakes profits of 73.75 and 27.19 respectively.
The Instant Expert report is available to all users on a Thursday, and it's an excellent report for quickly highlighting any runners that are well suited by the day's racing conditions.
Dubai's Secret is one of those such horses, with four sections of green and one of amber. He is also just the one pound higher than for his last win (which incidentally was here at Newbury over a mile last summer) and looks to have everything in his favour to produce a big run, and therefore appears a tad overpriced at the current 11/1.
Mullionheir has three sections of green and is seven pounds lower than for his last win. He has been racing on the all weather courses over what appear to be inadequate distances (although he has been bred for speed), and with conditions to suit, it will be interesting to see how he goes in his first attempt at a mile.
The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have the best record, with 13.08% of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 7.20.
Mullionheir, Golden Wedding and Capton all have identical pace scores based on their last four runs and look the most likely to be the fastest away. None of them are consistently front runners however, and it may be that there isn't a great deal of pace to the race early on, which would help any runners in the race where stamina over a mile may be a question mark.
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