Race of the Day

Race of the Day – 16 Oct

Race of the Day - 15:30 Windsor

Finale makes it onto The Shortlist for her race at Windsor, which is a one-mile fillies' handicap. She has a score of ten when it's on the 'Place' setting, with three sections of green and one of amber. She has never run here at Windsor previously, hence the grey section of the report.

If we take a look at her current form we can see that she has been racing consistently well, with two wins and two-second places from her six races to date.

She ran a good race to finish second last time out in a slightly stronger looking handicap than this one, and she stayed on strongly that day after being a little keen early on. Adam Kirby takes the ride again today and if he can get her to settle a bit better this time then that is sure to aid her chances. 

Adam Kirby has been firing in the winners recently. Over the past couple of weeks, he's had 10 winners (23.26%) and 18 places (41.86%) from 43 runners, for level stakes profits of 19.98 and 19.38 respectively. This has also produced an Impact Value of 2.49, meaning he is almost two and a half times more likely than average to have the winner.

Finale's sire, Holy Roman Emperor, has an excellent record with three-year-olds. From 510 runners he's produced 77 winners (15.10%) and 178 places (34.90%) for level stakes profits of 92.50 and 59.92 respectively, and an Impact Value of 1.26.

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The Instant Expert report confirms the good showing of Finale and she looks more suited to today's conditions than her rivals. It should be noted, however, that she is now seven pounds higher than for her last victory, so will probably need to put in a career-best performance to take this.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have a brilliant record, with 23.96% of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 246.65 and an Impact Value of 2.17.

Arctic Fire and Killay appear the most likely to be setting the early pace and Finale is also usually quite prominent. Given the importance of getting a good position early on here at Windsor, I fully expect Kirby to make a real effort through the first furlong to get across from stall ten and grab a handy spot. If he can do this and not waste too much energy in doing so, then I think Finale has a good chance.

Click here for the 15:30 at Windsor.

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