Race of the Day

Race of the Day – 18 December 2017

Race of the Day - 13:50 Plumpton

When the combination of Colin Tizzard and Harry Cobden have teamed up recently, they have generally been very successful, as can be seen on the Trainer Jockey Combo Stats report.

Over the past 30 days, they've had eight winners (40.00%) and 11 places (55.00%) from 20 runners, for level stakes profits of 18.88 and 18.94 respectively and an Impact Value of 3.79.

There have two runners together at Plumpton today, and I am going to be taking a closer look at Bears Rails, who runs in a three miles and two furlongs handicap chase.

Bears Rails had slipped down the handicap following some below-par performances, but he put in a fine performance in heavy ground at Uttoxeter last time out where he was just denied a victory in the final strides. He has been put back up three pounds for that second place, but if he gets his jumping right again then he can definitely be in the thick of things in this quality of race.

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The Tizzard yard has been among the winners recently with a strike rate of 22.09% over the past month. The Trainer Snippets on the racecard also shows that he has a particularly good record with his runners over the marathon distances. With such runners, he has managed 19 winners (17.76%) and 49 places (45.79%) from 107 runners, for level stakes profits of 23.47 and 46.12 respectively.

Harry Cobden has been in excellent form recently, with 20 runners in the last month. He also has a useful record here at Plumpton, with six winners (31.58%) and ten places (52.63%) from 19 runners over the last year, for level stakes profits of 1.75 and 3,08 respectively and an Impact Value of 2.31.

There is little to get excited about on the Instant Expert report, however, Bears Rails does have one of the two green sections that are there. He also has a couple of sections of amber which shows that he is at least reasonably well suited to today's conditions. He is six pounds higher than for his last win, but his performance last time out from just three pounds lower than today gives encouragement.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have a good record, with 21.30% of them going on to win the race.

Bears Rails has the highest pace score in this race and he was the long-time leader when he ran well last time out, therefore, I think it is likely that Cobden will adopt similar tactics here today.

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