Nonno Giulio has an apparent liking for racing at Redcar, as shown by the Horses For Courses report. Out of the seven races he's been involved in, he's won three of them (42.86%) for a level stakes profit of 10.25. He returns to Redcar today for the first time since his previous win, which makes him an interesting proposition and worth checking out in more detail.
The Full Form filter shows that he has slipped quite a long way down the handicap and is actually a full 13 pounds lower than when winning over course and distance (on very similar going) last November. He appears to be quite versatile ground wise, having won on good to soft and good to firm here at Redcar, and eight furlongs looks his preferred distance.
He has been lowered a further three pounds from his last race to a rating of 64, which leaves him on a very attractive mark. Another plus point is that he now qualifies to run in a 0-65 handicap that we have here today, therefore, if a return to Redcar sees him run to something close to his form at the back end of last year, he will have a few pounds in hand over a lot of his rivals.
The Instant Expert report highlights that this is actually a pretty terrible race, with very few of the 17 strong field showing any kind of form in these conditions. Nonno Giulio is comfortably the most noticeable with two sections of green and two of amber. It also shows that he is seven pounds lower than for his last victory, confirming his attractive looking mark.
For a field as large as this one, there doesn't appear to be a huge amount of pace in the race. Ellaal has the highest pace score based on the last four runs of each horse, and appears the most likely to be taking them along through the early stages of the race.
Nonno Giulio is drawn in the centre in stall eight and he needs to be prominent to be seen in best effect. From this draw I would be hopeful that he will be able to get a position just in behind the first few, and from there be able to strike inside the final few furlongs.
I think Nonno Giulio is a big price in what is quite frankly a dreadful looking race. With his record at the course and liking for today's underfoot conditions, there is some value in the 20/1 that is currently available.
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