Race of the Day – 20 July

Race of the Day - 20:05 Sandown Park

Sandown hosts an evening card today and it should be a lovely evening's racing with the current hot weather ensuring the ground will be plenty firm enough.

Today's Race of the Day is a 0-85 handicap run over one mile and six furlongs, with seven runners at the time of posting. EDIT - Kelvingrove is now a non runner.

Looking at the racecard we can see that Touch The Sky, who has won two out of his last three races, is rated a long way clear of the rest of the field on the Speed Ratings. He has a rating of 96, with the next closest on 77, a big difference and one definitely worth taking notice of. Atalan is at the bottom of the handicap but it is interesting to note that both his trainer and jockey have excellent recent form (the green characters below their names indicating excellent form over the past 14 and 30 days. For a more detailed look at this, click either the trainer or jockey icons below the horses name).

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The Instant Expert tab shows a clean sweep for Touch The Sky, with a nice green line across all five of the categories. We can rest assured that he is suited by today's race conditions, however a note of caution, he is four pounds higher than his last winning mark (this can be seen under the 'Rating' column on this tab), and therefore may need to improve again to win this race. Kelvingrove also has his fair share of green here, showing us that he is suited by the going and the distance, which is an important  factor I feel in a race of this length.

Int Exp_200716

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Due to the distance of this race I initially assumed that the pace and draw probably wouldn't have that much of an impact. However, when looking at the Heat Map and Draw / Run Style Combinations, it is clear that is pays to be at least prominent, but even better to be making the pace. Both low and middle draws have had good results when leading with positive P/L figures for wins.

Screen Shot 2016-07-19 at 20.05.21

The actual Pace tab shows that either Atalan or Touch The Sky are likely to lead as the others appears comfortable coming from off the pace.

Pace_200716

I definitely have a clear favourite in mind for this race, let me know what stands out for you or if you have discovered a different angle.

These are just some of the tools available for all UK and Irish races daily to Gold subscribers. To find out more, and take a test drive, click here.

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7 replies
  1. jethro says:

    Hi Steven
    For the first 3 days of your new service you entered a recommendation/opinion at the bottom of your daily analysis for the race you were reviewing, which seems to have now been removed over the last 5 days?
    I understand that the intent of this service is to highlight the Geegeez tools available to analyse each race; however I would much like to see your own personal recommendation reinstated – given it was top class in each of the three days you included it!
    As an example with reference to today above, I hesitantly assume when you say that you “definitely have a clear favourite in mind for this race” that it is Touch The Sky. However you have also mentioned the favourable aspects of Atalan’s chances so I could well be wrong. Given your obvious knowledge and expertise in using all the tools on Geegeez, I would still love to see your own recommendation included, which would no doubt be much more consistent than my own over time.
    Cheers…

  2. Matt Bisogno says:

    Gents,

    Firstly, thanks for following this column and I’m glad you find value in it.

    However, let me restate that this is NOT a tipping column. What I really *DON’T* want is for people to be asking what the profit and loss for it is. That’s not the intention. Nor does that mean it won’t be profitable to follow.

    But the REAL value in the column is that, over time, I hope regular readers will see how they can use the tools they’re not already using to help improve their race reading skills. Think of this as a cookery class rather than a restaurant!

    It’s pretty clear that Steve likes Touch The Sky, and respects Atalan. But that isn’t to say that this is necessarily a race to bet in, or that you will agree with his conclusions. (For instance, there is a chance that that pair will take each other on, which could set things up for a closer. I don’t actually think that will happen in this short field, but it’s the sort of thing you might have concluded for yourself).

    There is also the question of ‘value’. Steve may have highlighted a most likely winner, but whether you want to bet at 7/4 is another question.

    I hope that all makes sense, and that you continue to derive benefit from being walked around the various views in the racecards.

    Matt

    p.s. one thing Steve didn’t mention is that Touch The Sky is the most beautifully bred creature. His dad was the peerless (at middle distances) Sea The Stars, and his mum – Love Divine – won the Oaks in 2000. Not ‘arf bad if you were wondering whether the lad had scope to improve four pounds from his last winning mark!

  3. jethro says:

    Hi Matt,
    Thanks for your in-depth response above.
    I do realise (as I mentioned earlier) that RotD is intended to highlight the Geegeez tools available and aid in people’s understanding of how to use them. I do also realise that this is not a tipping column. I am merely asking for Steven’s “opinion/recommendation” (as he gave on the first three days) to be reinstated. If subscribers start requesting profit/loss figures in the future, they can still be put in their place and told that this is not a tipping column!
    To expand on my point:
    – On the first day Steven, in summary, wrote “All in all this is quite an intriguing race in which Nag’s Wag ticks enough of the boxes to be worth a consideration at a best price of 13/2.” The horse finished second at a profit for each-way backers.
    – On the second day Steven, in summary, wrote “In a very open looking contest, Bint Aldar runs for a trainer who has a good record with horses switching to his yard, has been successful in better company than today and likes to be at the head of the field from the off. Therefore his price of 10/1 feels a little inflated to me and could give us a good run for our money.” Bint Aldar was a non-runner.
    – On the third day Steven wrote “Wordismybond is drawn in stall one and is the likely pace setter. Given that he is also the top rated on the speed ratings I think a price of 11/2 offers a little bit of value in a fiendishly difficult race to crack. His last run was over too far and in soft conditions. The drying ground is a definite plus and I think it will be pushing good to firm in places by the time the racing starts which is in his favour as a lot of his best form has been with conditions on the firmer side of good.“ Wordismybond won at 6/1.
    From the 15th July onwards these recommendations ceased.
    In today’s piece I am left wondering whether Steven’s clear favourite in the race is Touch The Sky (as it came up on a number of Geegeez tools); or Atalan, as it represented better value at the price, in Steven’s opinion?
    I do not know Steven, however in a short time it is evident that he does have the ability to pick out a good value bet using the Geegeez tools; and far better than I can! Can his summary or opinion therefore not be reinstated without it being a tip?
    Thanks for your time and consideration Matt…

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi jethro

      First of all, I do see where you’re coming from. However, I’m afraid that doesn’t change the fact that the Race of the Day column will be informational rather than tipping in intent.

      I can’t really say this another way, so I’ll refer you back to the cooking analogy. Or perhaps to the one about teaching a man (or woman) to fish, rather than giving them a fish. This is a fishing lesson, not a fish supper. That is my express requirement of the column.

      Steve had barely got his feet through the door, let alone under the table, when I asked him to start penning this, and he – through force of habit – made a selection in his first three days. If they’d all been beaten, I don’t suppose we’d be having this conversation!

      That last point, in a nutshell, is why I want it ‘my’ way, not ‘your’ way. (I know it’s not my and your, so forgive the crass generalization). I don’t want people drifting away when a couple of well-touted animals run clunkers, as they inevitably will. And I absolutely do want the point to be made that sometimes – indeed, usually – there is more than one horse in a race for which a compelling case can be made.

      Moreover, there is a significant difference between the most likely winner and the best value bet. Steve’s brief – provided by me – is to showcase all of these nuances of both the tools, and the market and betting decisions.

      Geegeez has a tipping column. It’s called Stat of the Day (as you know). There are other tipping columns running with some success in the forum. We also have placepot pointers and Saturday TV trends (as you know). We don’t need any more tips. In my opinion. Too many cooks spoil the broth. However, the wise man cannot have too many teachers, or experts, or respected peers – however you want to view the writers on geegeez.co.uk

      At the end of the day, you want more tips and I want more understanding of the toolkit. We want different things and we ultimately won’t see eye to eye on it, alas. I hope you can at least understand my rationale.

      Best Regards,
      Matt

  4. jethro says:

    I can understand your side of it indeed Matt and thanks for taking even more time to respond! You’re exactly right – I do want to see more tips as I don’t have the time to put in the hard yards in the way of analysis on every race.
    I also see it from your perspective however and understand that the summaries at the end of each of the first three days of Steve’s summaries were not exactly what you wanted in his daily analysis. It just seemed like when the first three days summaries ceased – it was like taking candy from a baby from my own perspective….
    Best regards to you and yours anyway…

  5. chines57 says:

    Thought this was an interesting discussion . In the end all of this analysis must lead to a conclusion , which may be no bet , no value, this one looks good etc etc. It’s not actually a tip I would necessarily like to see added . However, I believe to know the writers conclusion at the end of his analysis would actually add to the learning process and may actually help me catch more fish in the end.
    Having said all of that , an excellent addition either way.

Comments are closed.