Race of the Day - 15:45 Doncaster
This is a veterans' handicap chase over three miles at Doncaster, and with good ground, this looks like it could be a decent race.
Saint Are is at the top of the weights, and his trainer and jockey have both been in really good recent form. Trainer Tom George is very capable of getting his horses ready to race after a break, his record with horses that haven't run for 60+ days is 28 winners (18.67%) and 66 places (44%) from 150 runners, and these have returned level stakes profits of 29.56 and 42.53 respectively.
Blue Kascade is right at the bottom of the handicap, and is further aided by McDonald's seven pound claim. Interestingly, he is at the top of the Speed Ratings with a mark of 155.
When looking at the Instant Expert tab, none of the runners look particularly better suited to today's race than any of the others.
Samingarry has green sections for going and distance and is just two pounds lower than for his last victory. He is the outsider of the field at 16/1, but in this wide open race may prove to be value at that price as he looks to have an each way chance.
Court By Surprise is a full 11 pounds lower than his last winning mark, so if he can replicate any of his old top form, he could be an interesting player.
The Pace tab shows that leaders here over this distance have a very good record. They have a win rate of 25.74% for level stakes profits of 57.30, which gives the impression that it can be quite a tough course to come from behind, and easy for front runner to bowl along.
Killala Quay and Blue Cascade are both genuine front runners who look the most likely to be battling it out for early supremacy. With the two of them wanting to be in front, this could make it quite a fast pace for the distance, however if they do take each other on, they could quite easily burn each other out leaving the rest to pass them when it matters.
The Trainer Statistics report is free to all users on a Wednesday, and it shows what a wonderful record Nicky Henderson has here at Doncaster. Over the past five years, he's had 40 winners (37.38%) and 64 places (59.81%) from 107 runners, for level stakes profits of 45.15 and 45.80 respectively. He runs Ericht here today, who is currently the joint favourite at around 5/1, and he's been in fairly consistent form of late.
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